makes me feel good about myself sometimes lol
I have a fair few friends who are basically incel (like friends who I drink with who I don't think have got laid in 10 years)
I also have huge slayer friends too (the good looking dudes who bang all the time)
I think the only difference between me and my incel friends is that they aren't prepared to face a ludicrous number of rejections that i've accepted (I tend to go for girls a fair bit hotter and younger than me and so know that I will likely get rejected 95% of the time. I don't think my friends can accept them odds and so just go without lol)
The dating market today is very different than even just a decade ago, before all these dating apps came into existence. I'm a white man who is in his early 30s, 6'4" at 240 and in amazing shape physically, very athletically built, etc. and all I get are matches or messages/responses from women that weighed close to if not more than me. I can only imagine what it's like for your more averageish man, 4-6, let alone a below average one if I have a hard time.
However, like you said a big factor is effort put in. Unless you are constantly approaching or in an environment where meeting a large variety of women is possible you are going to be single and sexless for a long time.