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EyeBRollin

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These crude rates are misleading at best. To get an accurate picture you have to break it down into a large multitude of demographics:

- Educational attainment
- Ethnicity (including whether both are the same ethnicity, and if not, which of the man and woman is what ethnicity; for example in America black man+white woman like my parents = higher risk of divorce than white+white, but white man+black woman = lower risk of divorce than white+white, and asians overall have the lowest risk of divorce)
- Income
- Age of marriage
- Age of first sexual activity (could only find this for women so far)
- Number of previous sexual partners (again only found a study that shows correlation for women so far)
- Religious attendance (this is also the one factor that lowers odds of cheating among both genders)
- Previous divorces (you did note this)
- Occupation (the divorce rates actually vary wildly by occupation)

The odds of divorce are completely different depending on which demographics the couple fits into, to the point that it's practically irrelevant to group them all together into into one statistic and use it as a bludgeon.

I haven't yet found a comprehensive regression analysis to begin sorting out which variables are more symptomatic of other variables and which are more causative, but I'm looking for it.
Socioeconomic indicators are predictive of divorce more so then anything else. Believe it or not, the lowest divorce rates are in Massachusetts and New Jersey - extremely affluent, highly educated states.
 

RickTheToad

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Its because people always think they are the exception. "It can't happen to me. I'm not like everybody else, I know all the pitfalls and I've done things the right way so things will work out for me". Same reason most guys here think they're 8's or above in looks. Delusional self confidence.
Not everyone can be a 10 or 11 like some of the alpha's here (sarcasm).
 

AttackFormation

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Socioeconomic indicators are predictive of divorce more so then anything else. Believe it or not, the lowest divorce rates are in Massachusetts and New Jersey - extremely affluent, highly educated states.
Indeed.

Two high school dropouts, working as bartender and massage therapist, who make low incomes, black man + white woman, who are both irreligious, who married very young, have a relatively very high correlation to divorce.

Conversely two highly educateds, working as dentist and audiologist, who make higher incomes, white man + black woman, who are both religiously devout, who married past 25, have a relatively very low correlation to divorce.

I will be looking into a comprehensive analysis.
 
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RickTheToad

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These crude rates are misleading at best. To get an accurate picture you have to break it down into a large multitude of demographics:

- Educational attainment
- Ethnicity (including whether both are the same ethnicity, and if not, which of the man and woman is what ethnicity; for example in America black man+white woman like my parents = higher risk of divorce than white+white, but white man+black woman = lower risk of divorce than white+white, and asians overall have the lowest risk of divorce)
- Income
- Age of marriage
- Age of first sexual activity (could only find this for women so far)
- Number of previous sexual partners (again only found a study that shows correlation for women so far)
- Religious attendance (this is also the one factor that lowers odds of cheating among both genders)
- Previous divorces (you did note this)
- Occupation (the divorce rates actually vary wildly by occupation)

The odds of divorce are completely different depending on which demographics the couple fits into, to the point that it's practically irrelevant to group them all together into into one statistic and use it as a bludgeon.

I haven't yet found a comprehensive regression analysis to begin sorting out which variables are more symptomatic of other variables and which are more causative (for example, the fact that higher education is associated with lower divorce may be because high education leads to higher income which is what really matters - or they may both matter, or other factors that lead to divorce may just be more concentrated in people with lower education), but I'm looking for it. Without a comprehensive regression analysis, even all of these demographic factors are just guesses in the dark too statistically speaking.
They are pretty acurate. I posted the sources from the gov't and planned parenthood in another thread. Again, this is for the US, not the Swed's. However, think however you wish.
 

AttackFormation

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They are pretty acurate. I posted the sources from the gov't and planned parenthood in another thread. Again, this is for the US, not the Swed's. However, think however you wish.
"Think however you wish", are you kidding me? I just described that the crude rate is misleading because you have to break it down by demographic factors for it to be relevant to each case, just like you can't calculate the risk of a tornado by taking the whole globe into account but rather you have to break it down into different factors like geography and time of year. Do you actually not understand what I mean?
 

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RickTheToad

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"Think however you wish", are you kidding me? I just described that the crude rate is misleading because you have to break it down by demographic factors, just like you can't calculate the risk of a tornado by taking the whole globe into account but rather you have to break it down into different factors like geography and time of year. Do you actually not understand what I mean?
No, it the sources I posted, it was broken down by race, income, etc. You are mistaken.
 

AttackFormation

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No, it the sources I posted, it was broken down by race, income, etc. You are mistaken.
You didn't break it down by any factors in this thread.
 

AttackFormation

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Here's a chart on odds of "very high" marital satisfaction correlated with previous sexual partners. For both men and women, there is a variable but overall trend of decreased marital satisfaction the more sexual partners they've had prior to marriage. Interestingly it's men who have the larger decline from their baseline, but men are still always more satisfied than the equivalent women.

1580497027114.png

I think I'm gonna put all of this stuff together in a thread of my own, but this is a little piece that might surprise you guys.
 
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AttackFormation

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EyeBRollin

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EyeBRollin

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If you want to bring things out by race, you’d have to compare per race the couples married at the same age in the same income bracket with the same educational attainment. These studies are so bad at isolating the variable in question

Example:
Household income of $100,000-200,000, both spouses with a 4 year degree or higher, with a large enough sample to compare (minimum number of couples say 1,000) that qualify.
 

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Spaz

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If human emotions can be tabulated and analysed, why do nerds generally remain incredibly stupid when it comes to interaction with other people?

Why do people still lose money in the stock exchange?

Normal people do not act rational, they base their decisions largely on emotions.

For example, plenty of people actually can't afford to buy the latest iPhone but would use their credit cards to purchase one and somehow endure not eating lunch for a few months just to pay off that debt.

Completely irrational but to them it's rational and worth it.

Stop discussing statistics and start learning how you can be greater then before.

Increase ur current skills and acquire new ones.
 

AttackFormation

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If you want to bring things out by race, you’d have to compare per race the couples married at the same age in the same income bracket with the same educational attainment. These studies are so bad at isolating the variable in question

Example:
Household income of $100,000-200,000, both spouses with a 4 year degree or higher, with a large enough sample to compare (minimum number of couples say 1,000) that qualify.
One of the references Rick's study uses is this one, which says that "We also observe significant differences by race in the effects of key compositional factors on the risk of marital disruption, including age at marriage, education, premarital childbearing, and region of residence. Differences in population composition with respect to these characteristics, however, cannot alone explain the overall racial gap in disruption."

However, I found no actual control for ethnicity in Rick's study.
 

EyeBRollin

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If human emotions can be tabulated and analysed, why do nerds generally remain incredibly stupid when it comes to interaction with other people?

Why do people still lose money in the stock exchange?

Normal people do not act rational, they base their decisions largely on emotions.

For example, plenty of people actually can't afford to buy the latest iPhone but would use their credit cards to purchase one and somehow endure not eating lunch for a few months just to pay off that debt.

Completely irrational but to them it's rational and worth it.

Stop discussing statistics and start learning how you can be greater then before.

Increase ur current skills and acquire new ones.
This is a horrible conflation of two things that have nothing to do with each other. A nerd doesn’t have to be in a 50 year successful marriage to perform an empirical analysis on marriage.

This is also a big fat straw man argument. An empirical analysis of marriage is not a tabulation of human emotion. Marriage =/= “human emotion”
 

zekko

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The odds of divorce are completely different depending on which demographics the couple fits into, to the point that it's practically irrelevant to group them all together into into one statistic and use it as a bludgeon.
Whaaaaat? How can that be? I know I've read on SoSuave that all women are alike to the point of practically being carbon copies of each other. They're just waiting for the right time to cuck you with some alpha before divorce-raping you.

Anyway, your point is valid. Doesn't really matter what the odds are though, if it happens to you.
 

Spaz

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This is a horrible conflation of two things that have nothing to do with each other. A nerd doesn’t have to be in a 50 year successful marriage to perform an empirical analysis on marriage.

This is also a big fat straw man argument. An empirical analysis of marriage is not a tabulation of human emotion. Marriage =/= “human emotion”
This must be the famous default response ones gets from nerds with inferiority complex.
 
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