Socioeconomic indicators are predictive of divorce more so then anything else. Believe it or not, the lowest divorce rates are in Massachusetts and New Jersey - extremely affluent, highly educated states.These crude rates are misleading at best. To get an accurate picture you have to break it down into a large multitude of demographics:
- Educational attainment
- Ethnicity (including whether both are the same ethnicity, and if not, which of the man and woman is what ethnicity; for example in America black man+white woman like my parents = higher risk of divorce than white+white, but white man+black woman = lower risk of divorce than white+white, and asians overall have the lowest risk of divorce)
- Age of marriage
- Age of first sexual activity (could only find this for women so far)
- Number of previous sexual partners (again only found a study that shows correlation for women so far)
- Religious attendance (this is also the one factor that lowers odds of cheating among both genders)
- Previous divorces (you did note this)
- Occupation (the divorce rates actually vary wildly by occupation)
The odds of divorce are completely different depending on which demographics the couple fits into, to the point that it's practically irrelevant to group them all together into into one statistic and use it as a bludgeon.
I haven't yet found a comprehensive regression analysis to begin sorting out which variables are more symptomatic of other variables and which are more causative, but I'm looking for it.