Damnit ... silver

[Franky Four Fingers]

$49.00 as I type...we broke $49!! If we hit $50, all bets are off, it's off to the moon!

At $49 apmex.com must be selling 1 oz silver bullion at around $52-53.

Yeah, this is why I take partial positions dollar cost averaging each month on the way up. I try not to take full positions though. that way if theres a pull back there is some cash in reserve for a buy on a pullback but I also don't get left behind on the way up if a pullback never happens to the level you hope for.

What happens if a pullback happens when it gets to 75, then it pullsback to 55 ? Thats about a 25% pullback. But if you waited for it to pullback to the 20-30's it might never happen.

The only way to cover both bases is to buy partial lots on the way up and keep the other half on the sidelines in case it does pullback. Or until you run out of sideline money with your partial buys on the way up, which ever comes first.

I know woulda coulda shoulda is useless but can you imagine buying when it was below $20 or $15 or $10? Oh those silly fantasies.

 

[Mr.Positive]

I know woulda coulda shoulda is useless but can you imagine buying when it was below $20 or $15 or $10? Oh those silly fantasies.

I don't have to imagine it, because I did. 90% of my silver I bought for under $20 an ounce...I used to think $20 was expensive.

What a wild ride it's been since. We hit $49.85 tonight, 15 cents from $50. If we break $50, i think that's a key price...it's going to shoot up to triple digits then. That's my opinion.

BTW, this is all based on China. They are apparently dumping the US dollar from their holdings. Expect all commodities to rise because of it.

 

[Mr.Positive]

I bought silver and gold back in mid 2000, then picked up more silver at 7 and 10 per ounce over the following three years.

What we are seeing here is a classic blow-off top. Silver is going to have one hell of a hangover during the summer. I am doubling down on my SLV puts. October 33, 37 and 40 puts.

That's awesome Danger.

Silver is having one heck of a hangover this morning actually. Made a run to $49.85 last night with the asian markets, come NY open, smack down hard.

I've seen this happen many times. The asian markets push up the price, and we smack it down. It screams of manipulation, shorting by the big banks, imo.

I still say if silver breaches $50, all bets are off, but I think you are right it's not happening soon and we'll get a good buy time this summer.

 

[Mr.Positive]

Loaded up on Puts right at the open and man I am LOVING it.

I think we hit the peak for this run. Ridiculous volume and a gap up are typical signs of a panic buying top. The ride down to low 30's begins today. In six weeks we may see the perfect buying opportunity.

Hope you make a killing Danger. Silver is crashing hard right now, down she goes...Just below $50 does sound like a peak. Lot's of panic last night.

Me, I just want to buy more silver. I'd like to add a few more 10 oz bars. It's been awhile since I've bought. I'm hoping for 20's silver. I think it's become more of a hobby as well as investment. I count them in ounces, not dollar amounts.

Let me know when you think might be a good time to buy, Danger. I'll give my thoughts as well at that time.

 

[Mr.Positive]

I'm telling you, it's the Asians driving the price up. They want out of the dollar. When their markets open the price shot up to $49.85. When we opened, we smacked it back down.

I've seen this happen many times before, at different price ranges. If you want to buy silver, wait until monday mornings at 9est, it's like clockwork after a big run up over the weekend when the markets are closed.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/25_London_Source_-_Asian_Buyers_Will_Take_Silver_Over_$100.html

 

[romangod]

Good Luck, Mr. Positive

I've been following this discussion and my respects for some well thought out arguments.


I came across a presentation that might help everyone in their DD on silver as an investment. I hope it helps.


http://www.businessinsider.com/silver-gfms-presentation-2011-4#-47


Cheers!

 

[Vice]

Made about $2k so far shorting silver. It's not much, but it's $2k I don't have to work for.

To put it into perspective, I put about $700 a month into my brokerage account, so I just made about three months worth of what I would normally save.

I make about $1500 a month after taxes, so that's about a month and a third's worth of pay.

You guys think low 30's huh? I've been expecting mid to high 30's. What is your reasoning?

 

[romangod]

http://www.financialpost.com/news/huge+problems+silver+investors/4730849/story.html


Cheers!

 

[Mr.Positive]

http://www.financialpost.com/news/huge+problems+silver+investors/4730849/story.html


Cheers!

Thanks Romangod, a few more articles like this one...and it may signal a good time to buy.

In this thread we've been predicting a good dip into the summer months, but this almost seems like a crash it's happened so quick. (Hopefully you made out like a bandit, Danger).

I'm thinking $25 silver will be the floor, and a good time to buy. Maybe in June/July.

 

[Vice]

Good work Vice on not buying into the mania. Not stampeding with the herd is a very difficult thing to do in investing.

If you truly shorted silver, I would cover asap. It's a VERY volalite metal and can quickly wipe out your starting capital.

Having said that, there are multiple reasons I expect the low 30's.

1. It should correct to it's 200 dma.
2. Silver typically corrects 30% or more after large runs.
3. This has been the largest run of the silver bull to date, which began in 2001), so expect a harder, longer fall.

Typical silver corrections last 6-8 weeks, the speed of this fall is a bit alarming, so I would not be surprised to see a bounce before continuing down to it's final low.

I closed out my puts yesterday and am fully in cash. If it bounces up to 42 or 43 again, then I will reload and ride the second wave down.

Just my opinion.

I was at work when I overheard someone mention silver as a "good investment". These people we guys that usually talked fanatically about sports. I took a look and saw silver soaring, and even though I'm new to the game, I know that it was rising too fast.

I've made about $3.5k so far, I will be covering soon. I also expect a bounce (double dip), and I might do the same thing you mentioned.

I am alarmed as well at how quickly it has fallen, but it's a combination of commodities as a whole going down as well, so it's probably like adding jet fuel to a fire. I will most likely cover on Friday, I don't want to be holding the bag over the weekend just to have it rise up again.

 

[azanon]

I was buying silver when it was around $10 an ounce, now it's over $46 an ounce...over 4 times what I bought. Are you saying that's a bad investment?

Make that $36 and dropping. I'll refrain from telling you "I told you so" because I think it'd come across as caddy. I mainly just hope the younger investors looking for solid advice are ignoring you because I don't personally think that every lesson has to be learned the hard way.

I saw where you're admitting $25 could be the floor. It boggles the mind that you think an investment that "should" drop that much further is actually a good one. In saying that, by logic you're admitting it's bad. If you're really just encouraging "short-term market timing" on top of the precious metals suggestion, you're making the worst investment mistakes at the same time!

...........

Want some real investment advice, fellows? Cash is king right now. Stocks are overpriced by multiple market valuation tools. Bonds, especially those with longer maturities, are also poised to be poor investments given that interest rates have only one direction to go (that'd be up). However, a particular type of bond, know as TIPS for short, could potentially be a great place to be with the inflation protection to offset interest rate rise. Precious metals are overpriced to all but the most naive. Real estate is also not looking that great either (including REITs).

So I'd recommend cash equilivents, TIPS, and corporate short term for 60%+ of your portfolio, and sprinkle in a dash of equities just for the purposes of hedging your bets.

To be clear, the primary purpose of cash and short term bonds is capital preservation, not return. So anyone who says not to invest in these solely because of their poor return isn't seeing the bigger picture. Personally, I'm more interested in a return OF my money than a return ON my money.

When to go back heavy in equities? Wait for the blood in the streets, and most everyone you meet to be completely dismayed by stocks. Then you know the time will be to buy with your cash. Most everyone else won't have any because they followed the herd and invested in things like silver.

 

[azanon]

You are cherry picking again.

$10 to $25 is still a 150% return over the course of 5 years. That kicks the $hit out of your 4% annual. Anyone thinking 4% annual in the last ten years is a good return needs to have their math skills checked.

2002 called, they want their good investment back. "was" a good investment. Using your logic, I should say internet stocks are an even better investment than silver because of their unmistakeable performance in the 1990s.

I'm not sure you fully realize how unimpressive it appears to use hindsight, and deem whatever did the best the past decade as the best investment. More times than not, that will be the worst in the coming decade, due to a well-known mathematical concept commonly referred to a mean-reversion. Given the long-term 0%, inflation-adjusted return of most precious metals, you can expect the next decade to be quite ugly. I see that's already started. I'm far more interested in 100 years of investment data, than just 10.

 

[Mr.Positive]

Make that $36 and dropping. I'll refrain from telling you "I told you so" because I think it'd come across as caddy. I mainly just hope the younger investors looking for solid advice are ignoring you because I don't personally think that every lesson has to be learned the hard way.

You think that would come off as caddy?

Actually, I hope you would start ignoring me, and ignoring this thread. I can't believe you are trying to take credit for predicting this drop in silver price.

How many others...Danger, Quicksilver, myself have posted we predicted a drop this summer?

We get it, Azanon, you hate silver for some reason.

Personally, I'm hoping for $25 to be the floor so I can buy more. Our government's fiscal policy is to keep spending money we don't have...so they will continue to print more.

Keeping everything in cash is a bad idea, imo. Maybe in Canadian dollars, not US dollars however.

By the way, TIPS doesn't accurately account for true inflation. Food prices, for example seem to have gone up at least 20% since the start of this year, and oil too...is TIPS giving a 20% return?

 

[Vice]

Covered my shorts this morning, made a total of about $3700/20%. Not bad for a beginner. I'm smart enough to know that I got lucky, and that I don't know much about the market.

Right now I'm looking at BP (BP) as a buying opportunity, as well as Jones Soda (JSDA). I've got all cash right now in my account, and I'll be keeping it over the weekend.

As for silver, we'll see where it goes next week. I think that this may be a good buying opportunity, as the fundamentals are bullish in the long term, and the technical correction has occured.

Disclaimer: I know VERY LITTLE about the stock market and trading. These are my newbie opinions.

 

[Mr.Positive]

Covered my shorts this morning, made a total of about $3700/20%. Not bad for a beginner. I'm smart enough to know that I got lucky, and that I don't know much about the market.

Right now I'm looking at BP (BP) as a buying opportunity, as well as Jones Soda (JSDA). I've got all cash right now in my account, and I'll be keeping it over the weekend.

As for silver, we'll see where it goes next week. I think that this may be a good buying opportunity, as the fundamentals are bullish in the long term, and the technical correction has occured.

Disclaimer: I know VERY LITTLE about the stock market and trading. These are my newbie opinions.

Very nice, Vice. Don't forget to hold some physical silver as well. It's estimated there is 100 oz of paper silver being traded, to 1 oz of physical silver. Could be a big implosion if that is actually true.

As far as buying...I couldn't help it, I bought one of these when silver dipped under $35..been keeping an eye on one of them for awhile.

http://www.providentmetals.com/bullion/silver/us-slv/america-the-beautiful-5-oz.html

 

[double x]

My economics teacher laughed when someone asked about buying gold or silver. I don't know much about stock trading, but I'd stay away. If you really want to invest, research biotech companies or other businesses in rapidly increasing fields. My dad made a killing off of Baidu, the 'chinese google'. Most of parents money is in google (from the 2000s), cisco (from a long time ago), or apple (from the 90s).

 

[Mr.Positive]

I would argue that many of them are handicapped due to their indoctrination into the accepted societal view of things, not unlike "the matrix" we so often refer to here.

The next ten years will be filled with volatility. Currencies, general equities and commodities will move large percentages back and forth. The only real pattern that will emerge is that commodities will remain in a long-term uptrend for those ten years, while general equities will basically move sideways. This is even accounting for inflation.

Our whole economy is one big ponzi scheme. The only difference between the puppet master (.gov) and Bernie Madoff is that Madoff can't print money. The whole economy would have collapsed just like Madoff's scheme, if the FED didn't inject a bunch of newly printed money into the system.

Big banks have no accountability anymore, they can make fraudulent criminal decisions and the taxpayer will bail them out.

Personally, anything tangible the greedy banks can't grab, is a good investment to me. Land, metals, even cash in hand is better than in a bank, etc.

This is a really good article to read, and sums up our situation. I hope some folks read this article and unplug at little...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24672

 

[Vice]

My economics teacher laughed when someone asked about buying gold or silver. I don't know much about stock trading, but I'd stay away. If you really want to invest, research biotech companies or other businesses in rapidly increasing fields. My dad made a killing off of Baidu, the 'chinese google'. Most of parents money is in google (from the 2000s), cisco (from a long time ago), or apple (from the 90s).

You don't know much about stock trading and tell us to stay away, and then you tell us about investing in all kinds of fields. Interesting.

While those fields may or may not be increasing, it does not matter, because a savvy investor can make money in an up or down market. Especially a down market.

And your parents sound like they hold stocks for a long time, most of the people on this thread are more active traders.

 

[Quiksilver]

Just checking in ...

I sold most of my paper holdings in silver at the end of April, and even managed to make a profit of just under $850 on the way down.
Not huge but it bought me a pair of tickets to Fiji in July

The rest went into gold mining co. stocks (Australian), but I'll likely pull out of gold holdings entirely when I see silver break $40 again.

I should really keep some gold but I just don't have enough money to make trading it worthwhile. Kept all my physical silver but that was purchased at $20.

I would argue that many of them [CNBC morons] are handicapped due to their indoctrination into the accepted societal view of things, not unlike "the matrix" we so often refer to here.

/\ This!

They do serve a purpose of herding the cattle into the slaughterhouse. It makes corrections reasonably easy to predict. Once all the CNBC dorks start talking about something that others have known for months and years, you know a correction will come soon as all the cattle get flayed and butchered in their race for the frothy peak. Many of the rational investors duck out at that time and the cattle are turned into beef. They get discouraged and sell whatever they poked their stockbrokers to buy a week/month earlier, and then the rational investors file back in in an orderly fashion to help themselves to some beef stew. Delicious!

 

[thissucks003]

When I first bought gold in 2000, and recommended it to others. EVERYONE laughed at me. By 2006, they started to probe for my ideas on the economic environment.

Now? Now I manage money for over 20 people, many including the original "laughers".

Another point, I remember back in 2000 when one of the economics teachers bought FogDog.com at the peak. This guy was over 50 years old, and he still had failed to understand what the hell was going on.

Trust me when I say that most of the people out there are no more capable of critical thinking than you or I are, regardless of "credentials".

Another case in point would be the CNBC morons who failed to predict the tech crash, the Real Estate crash, or the rise of commodities. These people are supposed to be the experts, and yet they have failed call after failed call.

I would argue that many of them are handicapped due to their indoctrination into the accepted societal view of things, not unlike "the matrix" we so often refer to here.

The next ten years will be filled with volatility. Currencies, general equities and commodities will move large percentages back and forth. The only real pattern that will emerge is that commodities will remain in a long-term uptrend for those ten years, while general equities will basically move sideways. This is even accounting for inflation.

Hey Danger,

Who do you clear through?

Best Regards,

TS