Damnit ... silver

[Alle_Gory]

Third world status in 10 years inevitable..

Why not 15 years? Or 16? I'd like to see what facts you're basing your judgement on.

Oh there aren't any like usual?

 

[Mr.Positive]

Just purchased some October Put Options on SLV. I think silver is too close to a top and it's time to start making some bets.

I don't think there's a top on silver in the long run, short term maybe.

Silver, $43.05 an ounce. I started this thread 6 months ago...I was shocked when it broke $25 an ounce then...just 6 months ago.

Please tell me some of you bought back at the $25 time! Man, I should have bought more...but at the time, I thought $25 was incredible.

I'm with Quicksilver...this bulldog's going to run. May pull back this summer, but silver is a small market, very small. There's only a billion ounces of silver out there, physical silver. There's how many people in China? Imagine if each one tried to even buy an ounce.

There is no top on silver.

But, there's a dollar value assigned to it.

See that for what it is.

 

[Mr.Positive]

I agree Positive that we are not at the end of the silver bull market.

Having said that, I do not doubt that during this summer we will hit the low $30's again.

I agree, I think sometime this summer we'll see low $30's again. If it even drops into the high $20's, that would be a good time to buy, imo.

It's interesting, because now people are starting to wake up to silver as an investment. The market is small, but with this huge price increase..it has folks looking at metals as the next best thing.

If silver drops down to the low $30's, I think it will shake out a lot of 'weak' hands, such as why the big banks short it...but, if enough folks are prepared and buy physical silver, and physical silver only, the amount on the market could get pulled out of the paper trading and shoot the price quickly to new highs.

We'll see, I'm keeping some money ready for if/when that happens. This is what I'm doing, not buying any now...but keeping some cash ready to jump on that possible opportunity.

 

[Mr.Positive]

This article is worth a read, if you are interested in silver as an investment.

Imo, this is why I buy silver...

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress...ou-probably-dont-arithmetic-human-nature-and/

 

[Quiksilver]

Why not 15 years? Or 16? I'd like to see what facts you're basing your judgement on.

Oh there aren't any like usual?

Third World status is an exaggeration, however being in a situation like Greece or Ireland within 7-10 years is more than likely.

- Higher taxes, lower services, cutting of entitlement programs, riots in LA/NYC/Atlanta, elevates suicide rates, steep decline in house prices, hyperinflation, etc.

Your gov will be selling national assets to corporations for pennies on the dollar to balance the budget to satisfy creditors.

Also, unlike Greece or Ireland, the US has no IMF bailout lined up, so one can imagine it being worse than the situation in Greece/Ireland.

If other big nations(BRICS) stop using the USD as the de facto world reserve currency, that is a Wildcard that could cause massive inflation and can pretty much occur at any time from 2011 onwards. Once that happens, your gov can no longer prin money without turning your nation into Weimar.

So, third world nation? No ... Redefining the concept of first world nation? Perhaps ... Are you out of the economic woods yet? Don't be silly.

In the media the gov has to calm the people by cooking up employment statistics and recovery indicators.

Why?

Analogy: Even if there is a fire in the theater, it's counterproductive to tell the truth by yelling "Fire!"

 

[d!ckmojo]

I don't think there's a top on silver in the long run, short term maybe.

Silver, $43.05 an ounce. I started this thread 6 months ago...I was shocked when it broke $25 an ounce then...just 6 months ago.

Please tell me some of you bought back at the $25 time! Man, I should have bought more...but at the time, I thought $25 was incredible.
.

Yep! I was started buying silver at the start of '10 when it was still ~ $17/oz, and kept buying all the way up to $25/oz. Physical silver that was. That was about a year ago. Then I stopped buying, and its more than doubled since then, I shoulda kept buying^^. I rmbr a few months ago it hit $30/oz, and then started correcting down, and I was getting excited, planning to get back in with some more purchases when it got back down to $25 again, but it only got to $26, and then shot up again so fast~ damn, I missed that boat (or should I say rocket).

Silver is going to the moon boys, the hard part will be timing the exit, because just when you think it can't go higher: it will.

 

[Alle_Gory]

If other big nations(BRICS) stop using the USD as the de facto world reserve currency, that is a Wildcard that could cause massive inflation and can pretty much occur at any time from 2011 onwards. Once that happens, your gov can no longer prin money without turning your nation into Weimar.

It's matter of when. China, India, Russia and Brazil are already in talks to use their own currencies to foster trade instead of relying on the USD. Before it was used as a world currency because of it's stability, well that's no longer a benefit.

Analogy: Even if there is a fire in the theater, it's counterproductive to tell the truth by yelling "Fire!"

I disagree. The people are far too complacent. For a nation that loves "freedom" and "democracy" you guys let yourselves and your children be sexually molested at airports.

A few riots would toughen you pansies up.

 

[Mr.Positive]

Yep! I was started buying silver at the start of '10 when it was still ~ $17/oz, and kept buying all the way up to $25/oz. Physical silver that was. That was about a year ago. Then I stopped buying, and its more than doubled since then, I shoulda kept buying^^. I rmbr a few months ago it hit $30/oz, and then started correcting down, and I was getting excited, planning to get back in with some more purchases when it got back down to $25 again, but it only got to $26, and then shot up again so fast~ damn, I missed that boat (or should I say rocket).

Silver is going to the moon boys, the hard part will be timing the exit, because just when you think it can't go higher: it will.

Right on! Man, I wish for those days back! I too was buying up until maybe $22. My best purchase was in late '08, I believe, I bought 40 oz of silver eagles for $12.76 a coin. Those are selling for close to $50 a coin now! If I had known that...I'd have bought 400 oz. Haha.

Yup, silver is going to the moon guys. The key to this game is patience. Don't let the price swings scare you out of the game, silver is volatile. But, like anything volatile, one day it will just explode. 6-8 years I've got, do you? Buy some, bury it, and in the next 6-8 years you'll be glad you did.

Now, let's get this price back down...for the summer. I'd like to add a little to the stack.

 

[azanon]

What I'd like to know is where do you sell gold or silver for full, or near full, actual value. Take Silver for instance. Where do I go get $45.21 an ounce minus, say, a maximum 1% commission, if that?

If the only places to actually sell these metals is "gold and silver scam exchanges" where you get pennies on the dollar, then why in the world would someone consider this a good investment? This reminds me of trading cards where you can look up a price in a price guide, but the only place you can sell one of these cards for what it says is in your dreams after you fall asleep at night.

IMO, real investments either pay interest, or produce earnings. Anything else is better referred to as speculating, not investing.

 

[Franky Four Fingers]

Damn, Silver has been rising 2-3% per day for around a month now. At what point is it a bubble?

What I'd like to know is where do you sell gold or silver for full, or near full, actual value. Take Silver for instance. Where do I go get $45.21 an ounce minus, say, a maximum 1% commission, if that?

Apmex.com shows the buy price that they will pay you which is pretty close to market spot price but a little less to cover their 'commission'.

 

[Mr.Positive]

What I'd like to know is where do you sell gold or silver for full, or near full, actual value. Take Silver for instance. Where do I go get $45.21 an ounce minus, say, a maximum 1% commission, if that?

Find a local gold/silver coin dealer. In my area, there's several. Call around ask then over the phone.

Last year, I had to sell a couple of oz's of gold. First time, the spot price was ~$1220 an oz. I was given around $1215 for the coin (krugerrand). I thought that was fair. Second time, gold spot price was $1400 an oz and I was given $10 less. The guy I go to is a reputable guy, family run business, honest and fair. The total time it took to sell was less than 5 minutes, and you are out the door. It's very easy to buy, and sell, when you need to. This gave me confidence in purchasing precious metals.

Regarding when is silver a bubble, who knows? A bubble occurs when you have masses of people chasing few assets. Silver could hit a bubble. I don't think we are there yet.

Take the last silver bubble, where silver topped out at $50 an ounce in the early 1980's. Inflation adjusted, that price today would be around $200 an ounce.

However, now it's different, you have the US dollar taking a nose dive, you have industry demanding more and more silver for all the crap we consume...who knows? $500 an ounce?

Personally, I think silver will be more expensive than gold one day in the future. Gold is shiny and pretty, but silver is a useful metal, like Platinum. Platinum is at $1800 an ounce right now, silver at only $45. Long way for silver to still go up, imo.

 

[Mr.Positive]

Also, just wanted to say, personally, I am not buying any silver right now. All extra income is going to other things. However, I'm not selling either. I'm holding.

What I'm hoping for is a smack down this summer, perhaps one last buying opportunity before silver breaks the $50 mark and shoots upward towards a $100. I think we'll be in the $70 range this time next year. That's what I think. The government's solution is to keep adding debt and print more money via quantitative easing to fund our out of control spending. As long as that continues, silver will keep going up.

If you do go and visit your local gold/silver shop, talk to the guy, tell him you are interested in bullion. Mention bullion to be clear. An honest dealer isn't going to give you a huge selling pitch, like a car salesman, gold and silver pretty much sell themselves. He should give you clear information on his buy/sell spread, and price premiums.

Hope that helps..

 

[PrettyBoyAJ]

Buy the silver ETF. Symbol: SLV.

How would I go about investing in these stock?

I think I will invest in Silver once I get money during the summer.

 

[Julius_Seizeher]

If you are willing to educate yourself, get your own online brokerage account. There are several good ones to choose from-TD Ameritrade, Etrade, Scottrade, etc. But they have high commissions.

I use Zecco. It doesn't have the bells and whistles of the big three but you can find that stuff for free on the net anyway. $5.00 a trade.

 

[azanon]

Find a local gold/silver coin dealer. In my area, there's several. Call around ask then over the phone.

So you mean these guys that come on local commercials asking for your gold/silver who have local shops? I admit I haven't checked into it, but there is NO WAY I believe that these guys pay anywhere close to near full value. If there are other "dealers" that do, then I don't see how the non-reputable ones could even be in business because the word would get out.

Last year, I had to sell a couple of oz's of gold. First time, the spot price was ~$1220 an oz. I was given around $1215 for the coin (krugerrand). I thought that was fair. Second time, gold spot price was $1400 an oz and I was given $10 less. The guy I go to is a reputable guy, family run business, honest and fair. The total time it took to sell was less than 5 minutes, and you are out the door. It's very easy to buy, and sell, when you need to. This gave me confidence in purchasing precious metals.

All I'm saying is that if this were true, I just can't see how they can afford the masses of commercials that go on in my local area.

Regarding when is silver a bubble, who knows? A bubble occurs when you have masses of people chasing few assets. Silver could hit a bubble. I don't think we are there yet.

I define a bubble differently. In my opinion, a bubble is when the current price of a security/item/whatever is higher than what it should be given a critical analysis of all investment factors. In other words, I don't subscribe to the efficient market theory. Anyone who does would have quite a challenge on their hands to defend that late 1999 stock prices were fair, and not inflated.

Take the last silver bubble, where silver topped out at $50 an ounce in the early 1980's. Inflation adjusted, that price today would be around $200 an ounce.

I like this point, but I'd use it to support something else. IMO, precious metals are zero sum investments. For those not familiar with that term, the expected long term return, inflation adjusted, of gold and silver is approximately 0%. Being a moderately conservative investor, I could never recommend someone "speculate" on an investment with a long-term return of 0%, based on an attempt to market time.

However, now it's different, you have the US dollar taking a nose dive, you have industry demanding more and more silver for all the crap we consume...who knows? $500 an ounce?

If it does, let the guy who has more balls than brains profit from it. I just hate to see you guys learn an expensive lesson the hard way.

Personally, I think silver will be more expensive than gold one day in the future. Gold is shiny and pretty, but silver is a useful metal, like Platinum. Platinum is at $1800 an ounce right now, silver at only $45. Long way for silver to still go up, imo.

Gold is not higher because it's more useful, it's higher because it's supply is massively less than silver. I would suspect the other reason is the traditional "gold standard" language that everyone on the earth speaks in some form or fashion.

 

[azanon]

How would I go about investing in these stock?

I think I will invest in Silver once I get money during the summer.

Hey young fellow, how bout buying this william bernstein book instead and starting with that as a guide: http://www.amazon.com/Investors-Man...5141/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1303388938&sr=8-1

Even if Gold/silver was as legitimate as some of these guys think it is, I would hope at least some of them would agree it's probably not the best type of investing for a young person to dive into with little or no experience.

To be fair, Bernstein is not totally against precious metals. He is actually ok with it representing up to 5% or so of your portfolio, which would be a respectable amount given its volatility.

 

[Mr.Positive]

Gold is not higher because it's more useful, it's higher because it's supply is massively less than silver. I would suspect the other reason is the traditional "gold standard" language that everyone on the earth speaks in some form or fashion.

The only reason gold holds it's value so high, is tradition. Internationally, cultures view gold as money, and it's hoarded by central banks, etc..

There's a lot of arguments that silver is more rare than gold. No banks hoard it, it's being used up...silver is more like oil, than gold. It's pulled from the earth and used up. We are using it up. 20 years from now, all the silver may be gone. We use more silver than we mine.

I hope you are correct, because if what they say is true, and there is less silver than gold, silver has a long way to go before it reaches a top. Gold is $1500 now. If there's less silver, than silver should be priced higher than that.

Also, my post regarding selling is true. I have no reason to lie. These dealers don't advertise on the TV. Don't go to cash4gold, go to your local mom and pop coin shop.

Check out www.apmex.com online. You can buy and sell from them too, the prices are right on the website.

EDIT: Azanon, I agree I hate to see folks buy right now at these high prices. Yes, I think long term silver is still an opportunity of a lifetime, but I think we'll see silver in the $20-$30 range this summer. If that happens, that's the time to buy short term. Think of silver like an IRA or a 401K, it's a long-term retirement investment, imo. The prices swing to wildly to try and profit short-term. I think by late 2012, silver will be over $100. Bold forecast, but that's what I think.

 

[Julius_Seizeher]

I would like to see someone extrapolate the inflation-adjusted value of gold with the all-time highs of 1980 as the benchmark. Gold hit $800 an ounce back then (more than half of today's price), and there are trillions more dollars in circulation now than back then. When you think of it that way, $1500 is dog sh!t. Look me up at $15,000, if you can find me.

And for anyone who believes this modernist notion that gold is just another mattress for backwoods conservatives to stuff their money into, read my words: gold is the only real money in the world. It exists, it is real, it is scarce, it is highly valued and sought after by men. It's value is determined by man's desire for it, by something real and quantifiable. Our dollar belongs on the gold standard. Only in the insulated cocoon of academia can retarded ideas like fiat money (and socialism) thrive, incubated like a virus before being unleashed to destroy the world "in the name of fairness and the common good."

What is more valuable to you-a physical object which you can hold, measure, and whose value you can readily quantify?

Or is it the arbitrary whim of a government banker, who assures you that a dollar is still worth a dollar while running the wheels off the printing presses?

A bird in the hand, or two unseen birds in a shapeless bush?

A body, or a ghost?

 

[azanon]

Also, my post regarding selling is true. I have no reason to lie. These dealers don't advertise on the TV. Don't go to cash4gold, go to your local mom and pop coin shop.

Check out www.apmex.com online. You can buy and sell from them too, the prices are right on the website.

Ok well I'm going to put this on my to-do list then because I have a few one oz american eagle silver coins that I'd like to sell to some sucker for the ridiculous price that it's at now.

EDIT: Azanon, I agree I hate to see folks buy right now at these high prices. Yes, I think long term silver is still an opportunity of a lifetime, but I think we'll see silver in the $20-$30 range this summer. If that happens, that's the time to buy short term. Think of silver like an IRA or a 401K, it's a long-term retirement investment, imo. The prices swing to wildly to try and profit short-term. I think by late 2012, silver will be over $100. Bold forecast, but that's what I think.

You either didn't hear, or just didn't agree with what I said. The expected "long-term" return of silver (and other precious metals) is 0%, inflated adjusted. The ONLY chance you have of making money on it is with short-term speculation and just being lucky doing it. But using hindsight and the last 100 years, if you could pick the worst time to attempt to speculate, .... it would be now, as evidenced by its current market price.

Silver COULd be $100 by 2012 (a short term swing, relatively speaking). But by 2025, it will probably be the inflation adjust price from 2003, or whatever price it used to be for decades on end. Thus, for an IRA, you'd do yourself a favor to have this representing 0-5% of your portfolio. The only reason I see to add it at all is to lower volatility. Some folks who are not advanced investors like I am might be surprised to learn that adding a "dash" of an independently volatile investment can sometimes lower the volatility of a portfolio of uncorrelated assets.

 

[Mr.Positive]

Azanon,

Define "short term speculation". Silver has gone from $4 to $44 in ten years, however I would not consider that the short term. Hell, anyone who kept just 0-5% of gold and silver in their portfolio over the last ten years would have been decimated. Even worse, they would be oblivious to the fact that they had been financially raped.

You are basically one of the proponents of dividends versus capital gains, and there is nothing wrong with that sort of investing. However that does not mean that capital gains is a bad kind of investment. Many of the "income" instruments over the last ten years have not done so well.

Danger, Azanon refuses to get it. The days of silver being used as an inflation hedge (0% real return) are a thing of the past.

Think about this, every tomahawk bomb we drop on Libya has over 500 ounces of silver in it. Poof...gone. Every laptop, cell phone, solar panel, heck pretty much any tech gadget has silver it it.

Silver is not gold. It is an industrial metal, and it is getting used up. We use more silver than we mine out of the earth. There's no metal out there that comes close to silver's unique properties, platinum is the closest, but platinum is $1800 an ounce..

There is no top on silver. Silver could go to a $1000 an ounce, what could stop it? Wait until the economy turns around, if it does, and we start consuming even more.