Crypto trading

[jaygreenb]

The weekly chart tells the story pretty well I think.

We have a bigger falling wedge with a bearish pennant inside it. This makes sense for a few reasons...first, the falling wedge is ultimately a bullish pattern, meaning once it breaks there will be a massive run up. However there needs to be at least two lower trend line touches, which is where the bearish pennant comes into play. I'm expecting it to break down which will lead to the second lower trendline touch and then sideways action before breaking out of the larger falling wedge formation. This would coincide with a slow summer period with price dropping to the mid 20K range and then slowly consolidating there before breaking out bullishly potentially in late summer or fall.

The "M" formation on the monthly chart is invalidated as the legs of the "M" go straight up or down(like the upward leg does) and it's been going sideways for 3 months now.

There can be more than 2 lower trendline touches so there is a chance it could fall lower than the mid 20Ks, but I would not expect much lower.

Just what I am seeing when I look at the charts, no guarantee this will play out, patterns don't have 100% accuracy rates, this is just the most likely scenario based on what is presented on the charts as I am looking at it more closely now on the weekly timeframe.

These 4yr cycles seem to just repeat, 30k feels similar to 6K back in 2018. It was a strong support area for a long time then we had a final capitulation down to around 3100 at the end of 18. Bear markets can be long a brutal, if we are in fact repeating the 4yr cycle, new highs won't happen until after the havening at the end of 2024. Alt coins, especially the small caps lost around 99%, even Eth lost 95%. Most will not return to their highs in USD or BTC. Of course I hope that isn't the case but best to be mentally prepared, it can play with your emotions. This is also where the money is really made, the bulk of the money I made was buying the market in 18&19. Having the cash flow is key.

 

[Reyaj]

What apps are you using to purchase btc, eth and alts? Strike and Coinbase?

Btw for anyone who wants to chart I think Litecoin is a great buy right now.

 

[jaygreenb]

What apps are you using to purchase btc, eth and alts? Strike and Coinbase?

Btw for anyone who wants to chart I think Litecoin is a great buy right now.

Yeah, strike is the cheapest but it is only btc and has low limits. Everything else is coinbase pro or kucoin. Be careful buying alts right now, don't want to catch a falling knife. If btc has another leg down, alts will go down much farther.

 

[Reyaj]

BTC and ETH are at their low points when I first started looking into this... Should I load up?

 

[Reyaj]

Seems like no one wants it to fall below 29.. gets put back over 30 quick

 

[Smok1nAce]

any good resources available to beginners who are trying to invest?

 

[jaygreenb]

BTC and ETH are at their low points when I first started looking into this... Should I load up?

I would just set a relatively low DCA, if it drops farther you can do individual larger buys. Wouldn't rush into anything at all with current macro back drop. Imagine there will be plenty of buy opps. Personally would not touch alt coins, they can fall much farther. Majority will go down 95%+

 

[Reyaj]

I would just set a relatively low DCA, if it drops farther you can do individual larger buys. Wouldn't rush into anything at all with current macro back drop. Imagine there will be plenty of buy opps. Personally would not touch alt coins, they can fall much farther. Majority will go down 95%+

Wow this thing is dipping fast.. I'm holding though

 

[BackInTheGame78]

BTC and ETH are at their low points when I first started looking into this... Should I load up?

I'd wait. I think it's going lower...maybe 23-24K, possibly even into the high teens. Depends how badly the stock market dumps eventually and how strong the US Dollar Index keeps chugging along to decade highs...

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I would just set a relatively low DCA, if it drops farther you can do individual larger buys. Wouldn't rush into anything at all with current macro back drop. Imagine there will be plenty of buy opps. Personally would not touch alt coins, they can fall much farther. Majority will go down 95%+

I'm just doing scalps on alts for longs with long term plan to short them at any local high until that stops working.

Also have perfected M1 timeframe NY reversal trendline break shorts that usually hit for 20-40% profits within a few hours

 

[Gedmun]

Is it a good time to buy some ripple or polkadot?

 

[Bingo-Player]

Its not a good time to buy anything let alone a highly speculative and subjective technology such as crypto

Who knows if it will recover again ...i certainly wouldn't be betting on it

 

[jaygreenb]

Is it a good time to buy some ripple or polkadot?

I would not buy alts right now personally. If you absolutely must have to, slowly scale in but understand they can go much lower

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Is it a good time to buy some ripple or polkadot?

No, wait for a bottom to form. This isn't it yet.

 

[Reyaj]

I'd wait. I think it's going lower...maybe 23-24K, possibly even into the high teens. Depends how badly the stock market dumps eventually and how strong the US Dollar Index keeps chugging along to decade highs...

I haven't votalitily like this from them in a while. You think it's a panic sell which is dropping it?

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I haven't votalitily like this from them in a while. You think it's a panic sell which is dropping it?

Partially...record number of short term holders are in losses and they are driving the selling...all those people who bought around 40K and higher are panic dumping

 

[Bingo-Player]

Perhaps they bought it off the back of this kind of prediction?

Then they deserve to lose the lot

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Perhaps they bought it off the back of this kind of prediction?

Nah, nobody has thought that for quite some time. 48K was an obvious top the last pump

 

[jaygreenb]

Then they deserve to lose the lot

Funny how an investment you don't like takes up so much of your headspace

 

[jaygreenb]

The really challenging thing is how CPI is rocketing away but crypto is tanking.


I feel sorry for them. One of my friends completely rejects using traditional investments, but sunk his 30k into crypto and did the usual crowing about how clever he was. I doubt he’s got half of it now.

So are metals and just about everything else, more has to do with dollar strength and economic climate. Majority of retail in crypto going to learn some tough lessons though. All but a handful are vaporware or a complete scam