Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[jaygreenb]

I think the 2021 cycle played out similar to what we saw in 2013, where it had 2 tops. Looking back, I think the real peak of euphoria of the last cycle was around late April-Early May of 2021. We saw alts go and make these wild runs in a period of a few months, like ETH going to 4k+ from a little over 1k in January......which is an insane move. Meanwhile, we saw BTC tank to a little under 30k and ETH to a bit under 2k summer of 2021, only to then rally slightly higher in November compared to what we saw in the spring.

In my opinion, last cycle from 2018-2021 was much more volatile and wild than what we saw with the current cycle we are in, but there are definitely some similarities for sure. The ETF top from last March was very similar to what we saw in the summer of 2019, where we saw BTC rally from 3k range and hit 14k. With both of these scenarios we saw a very long and slow grind before heating up again. With the last cycle it was even more volatile because of the COVID sell offs. We also saw a pretty strong retracement with the market in the months leading up to the election, August through October of 2024 was actually a great opportunity to load up. We saw something very similar happen in 2020, and like with 2024 things started heating up after the election.

As for 2025, no one really knows exactly how it is going to play out. For those who hold alts, I think the best plan is to start laddering out of your positions once you start getting into your target price ranges instead of trying to time the exact top.

For instance, you sell 10% of your stack in certain $ increments or perhaps based on their BTC pairings.

Me personally, I plan on implementing something like this but I'm also going to pay a lot of attention to BTC dominance and the alt pairings with BTC. ETH is still VERY low compared to BTC, which is a sign that we are very early with regards to an alt season. There is so much that can happen in such a short period of time that most won't be prepared. I've literally spent YEARS thinking about my exit strategy and preparing for this, as I've looked back on the mistakes I made last cycle and learned from them. I've made very few mistakes this cycle, especially compared to last cycle. My only real mistake was not focusing 100% on BTC when I was accumulating in 2022, the latter part of that year I also was buying alts when I should have just been all BTC. Aside from that though, 2023 and 2024 I made near perfect plays with regards to what I was interested in accumulating.

I have similar plan as far as selling off, basically do 10-20% as it runs up, its fairly flexible as in it depends if the individual coin runs. I actually did a 10% sell on ADA a few weeks ago when it ran. The only thing I am certain of in this market it is it will do whatever catches the majority offsides. This guy is a great follow btw, he has put out some of the consistently best data and analysis I have seen since 2018. He thinks this market is lining up like 2015-2017

x.com

x.com

As I'm writing this, buying just .10 BTC would cost roughly $10,000, which is completely out of reach for the majority of working adults in America, let alone the world. Most people this would take several years of accumulation.....but the problem is that by the time they've invested this much money BTC could be trading within a completely different range.

How things have changed lol

 

[jaygreenb]

The simple fact that there is bitcoin discussion on a dating/relationship forum absolutly proves that we're not early.

would say its "early majority" now on the adoption curve who have started buying. Most of retail though is not buying the right stuff so they aren't really going to be participating, at least in the long term upside. Trump and the strategic reserve might be the "chasm" or maybe was the ETF. 2015-20 was early, prior was the innovators

 

[sangheilios]

I have similar plan as far as selling off, basically do 10-20% as it runs up, its fairly flexible as in it depends if the individual coin runs. I actually did a 10% sell on ADA a few weeks ago when it ran. The only thing I am certain of in this market it is it will do whatever catches the majority offsides. This guy is a great follow btw, he has put out some of the consistently best data and analysis I have seen since 2018. He thinks this market is lining up like 2015-2017

x.com

x.com

How things have changed lol
View attachment 13796

Are those screenshots of your actual purchases? The last few months of 2017 was when I started hearing about BTC and crypto, which was when my interest started to peak. I didn't start actually making some moves until March of 2018, I had absolutely no idea what I was doing back then so it was a crazy year for me. However, I quickly understood the concept of dollar cost averaging and I stuck with it. Last cycle, I distinctly remember buying BTC in the 3k range, ETH at $100, etc. I also made the mistake of buying Litecoin and Bcash, I netted very respectable profits with them but I would have been substantially better off just buying BTC and ETH.

Going back to this cycle, I think it's very interesting to see how low ETH is right now, even as other top alts have made some huge moves over these last few months. As I've mentioned, this stuff can rip so hard and out of nowhere that it will catch many by surprise. I'm really looking forward to seeing if there is indeed a big pump during/after Trump's inauguration, similar to what we saw during election night.

I plan on selling alts for cash and also potentially converting some of these profits into BTC if they are strong levels with regards to their BTC pairs. I have no intention of selling my BTC, so I'll always have exposure and have nothing to worry about in case I sell a bit prematurely. I think the biggest risk is not so much selling a bit too early but more so holding out for some magical price you've become obsessed about that ultimately never hits, which results in you round tripping your bags. I can't imagine seeing sizeable gains where you've made 5 or even 6 figures off of your investment that made massive returns, only to watch it go back to where you started.

 

[sangheilios]

would say its "early majority" now on the adoption curve who have started buying. Most of retail though is not buying the right stuff so they aren't really going to be participating, at least in the long term upside. Trump and the strategic reserve might be the "chasm" or maybe was the ETF. 2015-20 was early, prior was the innovators

View attachment 13797

Here are some interesting links

This one is from late 2023, so it's a bit outdated, but at the time it was released it showed that we were still very early.
How Many Americans Own Crypto? (2025 Statistics)

This one is a bit more recent from earlier this past fall, a lot of very interesting information on here.
2024 Cryptocurrency Adoption and Sentiment Report | Security.org

This last link in particular I'm going to read through more in depth after I post this, I briefly skimmed through it before citing it on this page. I would say that while there are a good number of Americans that own some form of crypto, they probably are holding relatively small amounts and basically just dabbling a little in it.

 

[jaygreenb]

Are those screenshots of your actual purchases? The last few months of 2017 was when I started hearing about BTC and crypto, which was when my interest started to peak. I didn't start actually making some moves until March of 2018, I had absolutely no idea what I was doing back then so it was a crazy year for me. However, I quickly understood the concept of dollar cost averaging and I stuck with it. Last cycle, I distinctly remember buying BTC in the 3k range, ETH at $100, etc. I also made the mistake of buying Litecoin and Bcash, I netted very respectable profits with them but I would have been substantially better off just buying BTC and ETH.

Going back to this cycle, I think it's very interesting to see how low ETH is right now, even as other top alts have made some huge moves over these last few months. As I've mentioned, this stuff can rip so hard and out of nowhere that it will catch many by surprise. I'm really looking forward to seeing if there is indeed a big pump during/after Trump's inauguration, similar to what we saw during election night.

I plan on selling alts for cash and also potentially converting some of these profits into BTC if they are strong levels with regards to their BTC pairs. I have no intention of selling my BTC, so I'll always have exposure and have nothing to worry about in case I sell a bit prematurely. I think the biggest risk is not so much selling a bit too early but more so holding out for some magical price you've become obsessed about that ultimately never hits, which results in you round tripping your bags. I can't imagine seeing sizeable gains where you've made 5 or even 6 figures off of your investment that made massive returns, only to watch it go back to where you started.

Yes lol That buy in June was my first buy, literally had no idea what it was but a buddy who I knew who was really smart was going nuts about it at a poker game. Figured, why not and bought a couple days later. Think it dropped 30-40% within a few days haha That is when I started to go down rabbit hole and trying to figure out what i just bought. Started reading everything I could over the next month, got zero work done. Then one day after maybe 100 plus hrs of consuming content it just clicked and started shoveling as much money as I could in around a month after my first buy. Back then coinbase started you out with a 2500 week limit, I was so impatient I did it at 5 and 6 days, thats why some of those are 1900. I certainly didn't know what I was doing at that point, around 30% of that btc went straight to Binance to buy some of the most ultra dog sh1T coins there were. I always kept around 70% btc though, which saved me. At the peak, I think I ran my portfolio to over 600k then watched over 500k of that evaporate in 2018, very very painful at the time as that was a very meaningful amount for me then. Funny reminiscing on those moments now and how just a conversation can change your whole life trajectory. I stuck around though and spent a lot of time figuring out what got wrong and filling in the gaps of knowledge on not just crypto but investing/markets/cycles/money/networks. I learned so much from that experience and it was a huge motivator. Changed everything really.

After that I have stuck with probably 90% BTC, never stopped buying although looking back should of been much more aggressive in the 18/19 era. That first bear market plays with your mind, hard to keep that conviction and not second guess yourself. Especially with all these yahoo smooth brains on this thread telling you that you're an idiot lol Bear markets never phased me after that, I knew I was right. I bought a good amount of eth too during 18-20. I still have it and ideally would like to dump all of it this cycle as well as every other alt. I really do not have long term conviction in ETH, maybe it does, maybe not. I'll just take the low risk 30-50% CAGR of Bitcoin for the next 10-20yrs and be perfectly happy with that lay up. Past few months I've passed the never need to work again thresholds, a little surreal thinking of the numbers over the next few years. Feel very fortunate and grateful as I am sure you do as well.

 

[jaygreenb]

Here are some interesting links

This one is from late 2023, so it's a bit outdated, but at the time it was released it showed that we were still very early.
How Many Americans Own Crypto? (2025 Statistics)

This one is a bit more recent from earlier this past fall, a lot of very interesting information on here.
2024 Cryptocurrency Adoption and Sentiment Report | Security.org

This last link in particular I'm going to read through more in depth after I post this, I briefly skimmed through it before citing it on this page. I would say that while there are a good number of Americans that own some form of crypto, they probably are holding relatively small amounts and basically just dabbling a little in it.

This is a fun calculator to play around with, not sure I would ever "sell" to fund my retirement as hopefully there are some risk appropriate yield and borrowing products in the future. Gives you a good idea though of just how powerful an asset like bitcoin is with its growth.

Bitcoin Retirement Calculator | Unchained

Plan your future with our Bitcoin Retirement Calculator. Compare bitcoin vs traditional assets and project your long-term savings.

unchained.com

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

would say its "early majority" now on the adoption curve who have started buying. Most of retail though is not buying the right stuff so they aren't really going to be participating, at least in the long term upside. Trump and the strategic reserve might be the "chasm" or maybe was the ETF. 2015-20 was early, prior was the innovators

View attachment 13797

Agree.

Before 2014 it was innovators.

2015/2020 was early adopters

The BlackRock ETF was the chasm and those getting in now in the remaining part of the cycle are the early majority.

By late 2020s we will have legacy finance, institutions and mainstream platform to offer the asset to conventional investors..probably some boomer will get in too through their bank advisor.

Probably the following months and the remaining of the cycle are the last chance to get wealthy and act freely without conventional brokers and laws over coding the procedure in the western world.

2015/2018 early adopters.

 

[jaygreenb]

Agree.

Before 2014 it was innovators.

2015/2020 was early adopters

The BlackRock ETF was the chasm and those getting in now in the remaining part of the cycle are the early majority.

By late 2020s we will have legacy finance, institutions and mainstream platform to offer the asset to conventional investors..probably some boomer will get in too through their bank advisor.

Probably the following months and the remaining of the cycle are the last chance to get wealthy and act freely without conventional brokers and laws over coding the procedure in the western world.

2015/2018 early adopters.

Agree, window is closing for the average investor with 50-100k to make one full on wealth trade with just that. Would say anywhere from .3-1btc is going to be where someone will need for the equivalent for a few million today. That is just my best guess though, really depends how much of "value" this market eats. It could be all of it on a long enough time frame and just be the base level value protocol all capital and energy markets are reorganized over. Time will tell.

I do think there will be a lot of other opportunities as companies are built within this industry. I am not so sold that it will be other "coins" in the long term though. It may be different companies like MicroStrategy that figure out other ways to financialize and deliver different bitcoin products. I really have no idea how all of this will develop.

 

[Solomon]

Donald Trump just dropped his own memecoin
This cycle is about to be insane, buying more SHIB and XRP bwhahahahah

 

[sangheilios]

Agree.

Before 2014 it was innovators.

2015/2020 was early adopters

The BlackRock ETF was the chasm and those getting in now in the remaining part of the cycle are the early majority.

By late 2020s we will have legacy finance, institutions and mainstream platform to offer the asset to conventional investors..probably some boomer will get in too through their bank advisor.

Probably the following months and the remaining of the cycle are the last chance to get wealthy and act freely without conventional brokers and laws over coding the procedure in the western world.

2015/2018 early adopters.

Agree, window is closing for the average investor with 50-100k to make one full on wealth trade with just that. Would say anywhere from .3-1btc is going to be where someone will need for the equivalent for a few million today. That is just my best guess though, really depends how much of "value" this market eats. It could be all of it on a long enough time frame and just be the base level value protocol all capital and energy markets are reorganized over. Time will tell.

I do think there will be a lot of other opportunities as companies are built within this industry. I am not so sold that it will be other "coins" in the long term though. It may be different companies like MicroStrategy that figure out other ways to financialize and deliver different bitcoin products. I really have no idea how all of this will develop.

I think there is a lot that can happen through the rest of this decade and into the 2030s.

IF you believe that we will still continue to see the pattern of cycles, where we get into overvaluation followed by a bear market and undervaluation, then there is still a good amount of opportunity left with BTC itself.

For instance, let's say BTC peaks at around 150k this cycle, you could see a bear market in 2026 to where we tank to 60-70k, maybe 50k at the absolute worst of it. However, I agree with both of you in that the overwhelming majority of people would still struggle to obtain even 1/4 of a BTC in this price range, let alone a full one. A huge number of working adults in America are literally living paycheck to paycheck and would struggle to obtain even .05 in this price range of mine. Those who are NOT in this financial predicament could maybe get into .1-.2 BTC, but this would require a lot of dedication and commitment. Those with high incomes and/or a lot of disposable capital could definitely still become whole coiners or half coiners. Some could also take out loans or draw for their assets, like real estate, in order to acquire this. However, those with this type of capital available who are new investors with little knowledge and experience will most likely not make a move like this.

Crypto and BTC has honestly been pretty mainstream now since the cycle of 2017, so I feel those who were going to invest heavily into it have already done so. I feel this cycle, particularly with the ETFs of 2024, is what is bringing the Boomers into the market. This is a huge deal in my opinion because they hold the majority of wealth and real estate in this country. Granted, they'll do this through an ETF and won't be buying hardware wallets and storing it, but the interest is potentially there.

However, I've been seeing a lot of stuff on crypto youtube about how BTC is going to hit millions of dollars and that it's basically just going to go straight up and never go below 100k again. The fact that I'm seeing this more and more recently is making me feel that pieces are getting lined up to have retail FOMO enter into the space very soon........which convinces me we will still see a brutal bear market. Sure, there is the chance that these cycles we've seen cease to exist, which I'm totally fine with btw, but I really don't think this is all that likely.

With this out of the way, I think the best and easiest way for people to make a lot of $ in one given cycle is more with alts and not so much BTC. The problem with alts is that they are extremely volatile and unless you have a lot of experience with this market you are very likely just going to get wrecked. I still believe that most people would be better off focusing on BTC, but if they do a lot of research and understand the dynamics of market cycles they can easily trade alts for sure. Again, I just don't think most people have the experience or knowledge to be able to grasp this very well. Also, they most likely lack the characteristics and traits to be able to ignore high volatility AND have the conviction to stick through for a period of months or even years.

 

[jaygreenb]

I think there is a lot that can happen through the rest of this decade and into the 2030s.

IF you believe that we will still continue to see the pattern of cycles, where we get into overvaluation followed by a bear market and undervaluation, then there is still a good amount of opportunity left with BTC itself.

For instance, let's say BTC peaks at around 150k this cycle, you could see a bear market in 2026 to where we tank to 60-70k, maybe 50k at the absolute worst of it. However, I agree with both of you in that the overwhelming majority of people would still struggle to obtain even 1/4 of a BTC in this price range, let alone a full one. A huge number of working adults in America are literally living paycheck to paycheck and would struggle to obtain even .05 in this price range of mine. Those who are NOT in this financial predicament could maybe get into .1-.2 BTC, but this would require a lot of dedication and commitment. Those with high incomes and/or a lot of disposable capital could definitely still become whole coiners or half coiners. Some could also take out loans or draw for their assets, like real estate, in order to acquire this. However, those with this type of capital available who are new investors with little knowledge and experience will most likely not make a move like this.

Crypto and BTC has honestly been pretty mainstream now since the cycle of 2017, so I feel those who were going to invest heavily into it have already done so. I feel this cycle, particularly with the ETFs of 2024, is what is bringing the Boomers into the market. This is a huge deal in my opinion because they hold the majority of wealth and real estate in this country. Granted, they'll do this through an ETF and won't be buying hardware wallets and storing it, but the interest is potentially there.

However, I've been seeing a lot of stuff on crypto youtube about how BTC is going to hit millions of dollars and that it's basically just going to go straight up and never go below 100k again. The fact that I'm seeing this more and more recently is making me feel that pieces are getting lined up to have retail FOMO enter into the space very soon........which convinces me we will still see a brutal bear market. Sure, there is the chance that these cycles we've seen cease to exist, which I'm totally fine with btw, but I really don't think this is all that likely.

With this out of the way, I think the best and easiest way for people to make a lot of $ in one given cycle is more with alts and not so much BTC. The problem with alts is that they are extremely volatile and unless you have a lot of experience with this market you are very likely just going to get wrecked. I still believe that most people would be better off focusing on BTC, but if they do a lot of research and understand the dynamics of market cycles they can easily trade alts for sure. Again, I just don't think most people have the experience or knowledge to be able to grasp this very well. Also, they most likely lack the characteristics and traits to be able to ignore high volatility AND have the conviction to stick through for a period of months or even years.

Here is the issue I see, people are delusional now and think they can become wealthy with a few grand, that is their entire plan. Maybe a handful of people get lucky like that but it just not how the universe works. Even if you do hit one, you never learned all the lessons you take in while building it so they most likely will lose it at some point. They take on way too much risk chasing the 1000x and that will eventually catch up to you. I would not recommend to anyone I care about to try and out perform btc with alts. Investing is not zero sum, and even if you can't make millions with something it can be very important piece in the total puzzle. The best thing someone can do is try to get their income as high as possible and increase their monthly contribution to something like bitcoin and be patient and consistent.

If someone started with an investment of 20k, then contributed 500 week for 10yrs, at 30% avg you will have almost 1.5M, after 20yrs its 20M. Thats incredible and a high probability outcome. IT blows my mind that people think that isnt good enough. A low risk compounded 30-50% is like the "holy grail" of investments. Social media and crypto has fried peoples brains with what their expectations are. Hard work, time and consistency is the only risk appropriate way to get there. I know some people can make money with alts but that is probably 1% of the population. Majority do not have the aptitude, discipline or experience.

I actually think its going to be a major problem in the future. All these young guys in their 20's chasing shtcoins and memes while also not building their careers or skills are going to have major problems. When 99% are still broke with no career opportunities and reach their 30's/40s they are going to have a lot of anger/resentment.

 

[sangheilios]

Here is the issue I see, people are delusional now and think they can become wealthy with a few grand, that is their entire plan. Maybe a handful of people get lucky like that but it just not how the universe works. Even if you do hit one, you never learned all the lessons you take in while building it so they most likely will lose it at some point. They take on way too much risk chasing the 1000x and that will eventually catch up to you. I would not recommend to anyone I care about to try and out perform btc with alts. Investing is not zero sum, and even if you can't make millions with something it can be very important piece in the total puzzle. The best thing someone can do is try to get their income as high as possible and increase their monthly contribution to something like bitcoin and be patient and consistent.

If someone started with an investment of 20k, then contributed 500 week for 10yrs, at 30% avg you will have almost 1.5M, after 20yrs its 20M. Thats incredible and a high probability outcome. IT blows my mind that people think that isnt good enough. A low risk compounded 30-50% is like the "holy grail" of investments. Social media and crypto has fried peoples brains with what their expectations are. Hard work, time and consistency is the only risk appropriate way to get there. I know some people can make money with alts but that is probably 1% of the population. Majority do not have the aptitude, discipline or experience.

I actually think its going to be a major problem in the future. All these young guys in their 20's chasing shtcoins and memes while also not building their careers or skills are going to have major problems. When 99% are still broke with no career opportunities and reach their 30's/40s they are going to have a lot of anger/resentment.

I agree with your part about alts, it's only for people who really know what they are doing. With regards to Bitcoin though, the issue with your outline there is that most people just don't have that kind of money available, as I had mentioned in my previous post. Even buying .05 Bitcoin would be very difficult for a lot of people at current prices.

 

[jaygreenb]

I agree with your part about alts, it's only for people who really know what they are doing. With regards to Bitcoin though, the issue with your outline there is that most people just don't have that kind of money available, as I had mentioned in my previous post. Even buying .05 Bitcoin would be very difficult for a lot of people at current prices.

Then they haven't earned the right to be "wealthy", thats life. The most consistent way to make a lot of money is provide some type of value to society. They could still do that to a lower level and have a few hundred grand which would be greatly beneficial to their life. The mentality of I either make millions be broke is why most people stay broke. 5k intial and 50 a week is 2.6M after 20yrs

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

I actually think its going to be a major problem in the future. All these young guys in their 20's chasing shtcoins and memes while also not building their careers or skills are going to have major problems. When 99% are still broke with no career opportunities and reach their 30's/40s they are going to have a lot of anger/resentment.

Very few people crave to be dirty rich, most just want a decent life with a decent life style and no worries.

If they realize such outcome is not possible by legal means, their frustration will fuel their anger and what is already a bad life will simply remove any deterrent for them to behave.

If they fvck up too many millennials and zoomers, at some point we will see a new episode of vikings except that it will be western youths doing the raids.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Looking at a bigger correction coming, IMO.

Double top on the weekly chart and tweezer tops on the the monthly chart.

Also, Money Flow index peaked at over 80 and is showing a divergence where it is heading lower as price rose on both the weekly and monthly charts...it's a leading signal so it may take some time to play out but it usually leads to bigger corrections.

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

Here we go again, green resumed, btc was going back above 100k, eth was recovering yet dumb fvcks at bybit had to get themselves hacked for the gdp of a small nation...

Seems like someone doesnt want the price to go too high before big players filled their wallets.

 

[sangheilios]

Here we go again, green resumed, btc was going back above 100k, eth was recovering yet dumb fvcks at bybit had to get themselves hacked for the gdp of a small nation...

Seems like someone doesnt want the price to go too high before big players filled their wallets.

Considering what happened with that hack, Ethereum and the broader market is actually holding up really well. Factor in all of the government layoffs and uncertainty around the economy right now and this is actually pretty impressive. I think the real bottom was a couple weeks back when we saw alts tank. I've also seen a ton of comments online about how people are selling their alts and that they are now Bitcoin maxis, another sign that we are in the middle of heavy fear. My thesis is looking very strong here, if I'm wrong it just gives me more time to accumulate at lower prices.

Fast forward to early May/late April and we will be in a totally different market.

 

[Bible_Belt]

Bitcoin Crashes: Experts Warn Of 6-Month Slump To $73,000

The Bitcoin price has fallen more than -8.8% since Friday when Bybit suffered the biggest crypto hack in history. The flagship digital asset reached a peak of $99,493 late last week, only to retreat to roughly $91,500 at press time, marking a -5.5% decline since Monday. This downturn not only shatt…

www.tradingview.com

 

[Solomon]

Man this dip what an opportunity. Got more XRP, XCN I'm loving this, March is going to be fun yeeehaaaw!

 

[sangheilios]

Bitcoin Crashes: Experts Warn Of 6-Month Slump To $73,000

The Bitcoin price has fallen more than -8.8% since Friday when Bybit suffered the biggest crypto hack in history. The flagship digital asset reached a peak of $99,493 late last week, only to retreat to roughly $91,500 at press time, marking a -5.5% decline since Monday. This downturn not only shatt…

www.tradingview.com

This could play out similar to what we saw last year after the ETF hype. The pattern since the bottom of the 2022 market has been range bound, ladder up and then consolidate/sell off and then go range bound and then eventually take off again. People are saying how similar this cycle has been playing out to 2017, so all of these variables are lining things up to where we might not really peak until the tail of 2025 or maybe not even until early 2026.