Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[Divorced w 3]

Strategy - Real-Time Treasury Analytics

Strategy Real-Time Treasury Analytics Dashboard

www.mstr-tracker.com

 

[Divorced w 3]

If BTC > 104k end of day, this may be get some serious traction.

 

[Divorced w 3]

I scooped some Jan 10, 360 MSTR calls at 17.40, Lord give me strength

It has come in a touch but at the height of it, I was 60% on debit in two hours, which is just bananas. What a time to be alive.

 

[Divorced w 3]

Strategy - Real-Time Treasury Analytics

Strategy Real-Time Treasury Analytics Dashboard

www.mstr-tracker.com

So this site is really good. It has a regression analysis which plots the NAV premium at around 2.65x, which depending on where the price lands (now, for instance) would value MSTR 500 (spot 380 at the time).

 

[jaygreenb]

I saw a thread on another forum where people where calling Bitcoin a scam and such, there were a couple people saying it if Blackrock is buying it how can it be a scam? it's truly mind blowing a lotof people argue against Bitcoin based on ignorance and 3rd party biased. It goes to show you how many people run with what they heard on the news or something but don't delve deeper to do their own research

One thing I really valued that I have learned over the years and continue to learn is that you have to do the research it takes time and effort but it's the reason why a lot of us in this thread will be wealthy in the near future

Right, you have to put the time in, there is really no shortcut to wrapping your head around it since it is a completely new concept that experience in other industries does not translate well. Even if you do participate, if you skip the education part you are most likely going to get washed out with one of the million landmines in the industry. I definitely took my lumps first cycle, funny now but was pretty painful in the moment. The difference is when someone actually learns from their mistakes, adjusts and sticks around. Most are just not willing to do that. We are in a very fortunate position now.

 

[Divorced w 3]

I scooped some Jan 10, 360 MSTR calls at 17.40, Lord give me strength

Sold these and moved into the March series. Not that anyone cares, but I am not going to hide when things don’t work.

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

My brain is completely desensitize to such volatility, I've been through so much sh1t in the last years that my blood is completely cold.
I will either get wealthy this way or will come up with something else to do it or do it more.

I could have a swat team ramming my front door only to dress up and leave with calm from the back door without breaking a sweat even if I noticed in that moment my girlfriend cheating.

 

[Solomon]

Good to see markets bullish again after the Inflation report BTC over 100K and XRP making waves.
Jan 20th and beyond is going to be very interesting

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

Good to see markets bullish again after the Inflation report BTC over 100K and XRP making waves.
Jan 20th and beyond is going to be very interesting

If they fix ukraine and middle east and no other sh1t emerges, we could have an amazing 2025 in terms of price action..

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Good to see markets bullish again after the Inflation report BTC over 100K and XRP making waves.
Jan 20th and beyond is going to be very interesting

Never broke structure on the daily, it's remained bullish.

Theoretically this should push us to a higher high since we have a higher low.

 

[sangheilios]

Good to see markets bullish again after the Inflation report BTC over 100K and XRP making waves.
Jan 20th and beyond is going to be very interesting

If they fix ukraine and middle east and no other sh1t emerges, we could have an amazing 2025 in terms of price action..

@jaygreenb

As far as I'm concerned, the bearishness of the market we saw in December through this month of January 2025 was to be expected. The crypto market was absolutely on fire back in November of 2024 post election and naturally needed to cool off. I've honestly tuned the market out for over a month now, as I knew it wouldn't be worth paying attention to for at least a couple months.

As for recent bullish price action, I think a lot of it is simply based off of hype surrounding the inauguration in a few days. People act like this cycle is "different" but it's honestly played out eerily similar to what we saw in 2018-2020, let alone even the cycle prior to that. Now, when this cycle is going to really see peak euphoria no one really knows, it could be spring of this year or maybe not even until the fall of 2025. I would just be prepared to adjust to either scenario.

@Fortune_favors_the_bold

I agree with this sentiment and that major events like that can definitely be huge catalysts with regards to price action, the COVID lockdowns are the best recent example for sure. Overall though, the crypto asset class is very resilient and while it may be reactive at times to bad news, it will continue to go back on track.

@Solomon

I think XRP and BTC have already had the vast majority of their big gains this cycle. I'd honestly be very surprised to see BTC do a 2x from here, though as a holder I have absolutely no issues if I am incorrect here lol. However, ETH is still well below 4k and at cycle lows with regards to it's BTC pairing. We are still very early and there is a lot of room for alts to rise from here, in fact you could even argue that alt coin season still isn't even here. Basically, have plans to take profits and stick with it.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

@jaygreenb

As far as I'm concerned, the bearishness of the market we saw in December through this month of January 2025 was to be expected. The crypto market was absolutely on fire back in November of 2024 post election and naturally needed to cool off. I've honestly tuned the market out for over a month now, as I knew it wouldn't be worth paying attention to for at least a couple months.

As for recent bullish price action, I think a lot of it is simply based off of hype surrounding the inauguration in a few days. People act like this cycle is "different" but it's honestly played out eerily similar to what we saw in 2018-2020, let alone even the cycle prior to that. Now, when this cycle is going to really see peak euphoria no one really knows, it could be spring of this year or maybe not even until the fall of 2025. I would just be prepared to adjust to either scenario.

@Fortune_favors_the_bold

I agree with this sentiment and that major events like that can definitely be huge catalysts with regards to price action, the COVID lockdowns are the best recent example for sure. Overall though, the crypto asset class is very resilient and while it may be reactive at times to bad news, it will continue to go back on track.

@Solomon

I think XRP and BTC have already had the vast majority of their big gains this cycle. I'd honestly be very surprised to see BTC do a 2x from here, though as a holder I have absolutely no issues if I am incorrect here lol. However, ETH is still well below 4k and at cycle lows with regards to it's BTC pairing. We are still very early and there is a lot of room for alts to rise from here, in fact you could even argue that alt coin season still isn't even here. Basically, have plans to take profits and stick with it.

What we saw wasn't bearish.

To be bearish, it must break structure and set a lower high followed by a lower low.

So far all we have is a higher high and a higher low on the daily.

This was simply a healthy, normal correction to free up more liquidity for an assumed push higher.

Falling prices do not indicate bearishness necessarily, just like rising prices do not necessarily indicate bullishness.

 

[sangheilios]

What we saw wasn't bearish.

To be bearish, it must break structure and set a lower high followed by a lower low.

So far all we have is a higher high and a higher low on the daily.

This was simply a healthy, normal correction to free up more liquidity for an assumed push higher.

Falling prices do not indicate bearishness necessarily, just like rising prices do not necessarily indicate bullishness.

Brah, a correction like we saw in December is "bearish" in the sense that the markets are showing weakness, selling off, etc. It doesn't mean that it's over or that we were going to 10k lol. What we saw April through the fall was a very drawn out period of bearishness.

Not sure where you are reading that.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Brah, a correction like we saw in December is "bearish" in the sense that the markets are showing weakness, selling off, etc. It doesn't mean that it's over or that we were going to 10k lol. What we saw April through the fall was a very drawn out period of bearishness.

Not sure where you are reading that.

Again, to show weakness it must break structure to the downside. Anything else is just interplay between the swing high and the swing low and doesn't mean anything.

Breaking internal structure is not meaningful in anyway. It must break external structure.

When you have a bottoming tail as long as there was on the daily chart a few days ago that sure does not say weakness to me.

 

[sangheilios]

Again, to show weakness it must break structure to the downside. Anything else is just interplay between the swing high and the swing low and doesn't mean anything.

Breaking internal structure is not meaningful in anyway. It must break external structure.

When you have a bottoming tail as long as there was on the daily chart a few days ago that sure does not say weakness to me.

Are you seriously arguing with me simply because of how I worded my posts? I literally said that the market was due for a cooling off/correction after the smoke show we saw in November. Not sure where you are reading into this.

 

[Divorced w 3]

Never broke structure on the daily, it's remained bullish.

Theoretically this should push us to a higher high since we have a higher low.

150 coming

 

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb

As far as I'm concerned, the bearishness of the market we saw in December through this month of January 2025 was to be expected. The crypto market was absolutely on fire back in November of 2024 post election and naturally needed to cool off. I've honestly tuned the market out for over a month now, as I knew it wouldn't be worth paying attention to for at least a couple months.

As for recent bullish price action, I think a lot of it is simply based off of hype surrounding the inauguration in a few days. People act like this cycle is "different" but it's honestly played out eerily similar to what we saw in 2018-2020, let alone even the cycle prior to that. Now, when this cycle is going to really see peak euphoria no one really knows, it could be spring of this year or maybe not even until the fall of 2025. I would just be prepared to adjust to either scenario.

@Fortune_favors_the_bold

I agree with this sentiment and that major events like that can definitely be huge catalysts with regards to price action, the COVID lockdowns are the best recent example for sure. Overall though, the crypto asset class is very resilient and while it may be reactive at times to bad news, it will continue to go back on track.

@Solomon

I think XRP and BTC have already had the vast majority of their big gains this cycle. I'd honestly be very surprised to see BTC do a 2x from here, though as a holder I have absolutely no issues if I am incorrect here lol. However, ETH is still well below 4k and at cycle lows with regards to it's BTC pairing. We are still very early and there is a lot of room for alts to rise from here, in fact you could even argue that alt coin season still isn't even here. Basically, have plans to take profits and stick with it.

The cool off periods are healthy, when things get too silly and parabolic it usually means the end is near. Will be interesting to see if we more mirror the 2017 or 2021 bull market. One thing to keep in mind, 2021 may have been artificially muted with the China Mining ban and whatever the US Govt was doing behind the scenes to slow things down. Like you said, think would be wise to be prepared for any scenario. My rough plan is to sell off half my alts if we get a big move up in the spring then the rest at the end of fall if we are still going. Easier said than done to actually execute that though.

 

[sangheilios]

The cool off periods are healthy, when things get too silly and parabolic it usually means the end is near. Will be interesting to see if we more mirror the 2017 or 2021 bull market. One thing to keep in mind, 2021 may have been artificially muted with the China Mining ban and whatever the US Govt was doing behind the scenes to slow things down. Like you said, think would be wise to be prepared for any scenario. My rough plan is to sell off half my alts if we get a big move up in the spring then the rest at the end of fall if we are still going. Easier said than done to actually execute that though.

I think the 2021 cycle played out similar to what we saw in 2013, where it had 2 tops. Looking back, I think the real peak of euphoria of the last cycle was around late April-Early May of 2021. We saw alts go and make these wild runs in a period of a few months, like ETH going to 4k+ from a little over 1k in January......which is an insane move. Meanwhile, we saw BTC tank to a little under 30k and ETH to a bit under 2k summer of 2021, only to then rally slightly higher in November compared to what we saw in the spring.

In my opinion, last cycle from 2018-2021 was much more volatile and wild than what we saw with the current cycle we are in, but there are definitely some similarities for sure. The ETF top from last March was very similar to what we saw in the summer of 2019, where we saw BTC rally from 3k range and hit 14k. With both of these scenarios we saw a very long and slow grind before heating up again. With the last cycle it was even more volatile because of the COVID sell offs. We also saw a pretty strong retracement with the market in the months leading up to the election, August through October of 2024 was actually a great opportunity to load up. We saw something very similar happen in 2020, and like with 2024 things started heating up after the election.

As for 2025, no one really knows exactly how it is going to play out. For those who hold alts, I think the best plan is to start laddering out of your positions once you start getting into your target price ranges instead of trying to time the exact top.

For instance, you sell 10% of your stack in certain $ increments or perhaps based on their BTC pairings.

Me personally, I plan on implementing something like this but I'm also going to pay a lot of attention to BTC dominance and the alt pairings with BTC. ETH is still VERY low compared to BTC, which is a sign that we are very early with regards to an alt season. There is so much that can happen in such a short period of time that most won't be prepared. I've literally spent YEARS thinking about my exit strategy and preparing for this, as I've looked back on the mistakes I made last cycle and learned from them. I've made very few mistakes this cycle, especially compared to last cycle. My only real mistake was not focusing 100% on BTC when I was accumulating in 2022, the latter part of that year I also was buying alts when I should have just been all BTC. Aside from that though, 2023 and 2024 I made near perfect plays with regards to what I was interested in accumulating.

 

[Fortune_favors_the_bold]

The simple fact that there is bitcoin discussion on a dating/relationship forum absolutly proves that we're not early.

 

[sangheilios]

The simple fact that there is bitcoin discussion on a dating/relationship forum absolutly proves that we're not early.

This thread itself goes way back to 2018. This is also a forum frequented by men that are active on the internet, which means that they are going to be relatively young, around 45 and under for the most part. This is the demographic that is most heavily invested in crypto right now without a doubt.

I do partially agree with you though. The ETFS launching last year and with the pro cypto stance of the new administration, I see this as BTC and the broader crypto space itself as having gone "public". If you were loading up in 2018 through 2020 leading up to the bull market of 2021 you were early for sure and I'd also say this applies to those who bought from 2022-2023. However, we are starting to get mainstream with this asset class and in the not too distant future most people who aren't invested are going to be left out of the loop.

I've discussed this with @jaygreenb on this thread. BTC is rapidly evolving and getting into price territory where those who have no positions are going to be struggling to attain sats. As I'm writing this, buying just .10 BTC would cost roughly $10,000, which is completely out of reach for the majority of working adults in America, let alone the world. Most people this would take several years of accumulation.....but the problem is that by the time they've invested this much money BTC could be trading within a completely different range. This is also a huge reason why retail newcomers to the space speculate with alts, as per unit they are substantially cheaper. People see BTC at 100k and realize they can't buy much of it, but then they look at SoSuave coin going for 50 cents each on robinhood and their $500 buys them 1k of these coins.