Where are the bitcoin lovers now?

[sangheilios]

I don't want you to miss out, I'm gonna need a wingman if I'm going to the Maldives with 6 centerfolds lmfaooo

you're printing cash right now, what a run

This is about the worst time you could be buying XRP IF you don't already have a bag. It's basically flirting with the previous ATH range and already pumped massively. A market cap of 600 billion, well past what ETH peaked at, would give this particular coin a roughly $10 price. Unless you want to speculate that it's going to blow well past this, this ship has already sailed and there are better opportunities. The reality is that retail will FOMO into this coin now because of the action/attention it's receiving. I'm starting to see this all over crypto youtube now and I know a ton of people are going to get wrecked, it further validates the point I've been repeating on here lately that we will continue to have market cycles, periods of over hype/euphoria followed by a heavy sell side pressure.

ADA did very well around the election and is slowly climbing.

A huge one though is XLM, it basically rocketed out of obscurity and is nearing the top 10. HBAR and Algorand are also doing extremely well. Interesting trend is that it's all OG coins, ADA and XRP were big way back in the 2017 run. ETH is surprisingly very boring right now.

 

[jaygreenb]

I don't want you to miss out, I'm gonna need a wingman if I'm going to the Maldives with 6 centerfolds lmfaooo

Ha! appreciate it, we both know better than to chase pumps in crypto though. Got to be in it first, you played it well. I'm just about at retirement level now, this bull market should seal the deal. Meet you in Maldives brother

 

[jaygreenb]

This is about the worst time you could be buying XRP IF you don't already have a bag. It's basically flirting with the previous ATH range and already pumped massively. A market cap of 600 billion, well past what ETH peaked at, would give this particular coin a roughly $10 price. Unless you want to speculate that it's going to blow well past this, this ship has already sailed and there are better opportunities. The reality is that retail will FOMO into this coin now because of the action/attention it's receiving. I'm starting to see this all over crypto youtube now and I know a ton of people are going to get wrecked, it further validates the point I've been repeating on here lately that we will continue to have market cycles, periods of over hype/euphoria followed by a heavy sell side pressure.

ADA did very well around the election and is slowly climbing.

A huge one though is XLM, it basically rocketed out of obscurity and is nearing the top 10. HBAR and Algorand are also doing extremely well. Interesting trend is that it's all OG coins, ADA and XRP were big way back in the 2017 run. ETH is surprisingly very boring right now.

Retail is definitely starting to pay attention again, getting sent a ton of tik tok and Instagram videos from randoms again lol XRP to 10k+ is a major theme of them, retail going to get smoked again haha Hoping to get a nice pump on my OG ada and link bags, have a feeling ETH is going to get its shine in the not too distant future. It really is whatever can catch the attention/hype wave

 

[sangheilios]

Retail is definitely starting to pay attention again, getting sent a ton of tik tok and Instagram videos from randoms again lol XRP to 10k+ is a major theme of them, retail going to get smoked again haha Hoping to get a nice pump on my OG ada and link bags, have a feeling ETH is going to get its shine in the not too distant future. It really is whatever can catch the attention/hype wave

I distinctly recall last cycle and how the overall market just pumped as a collective whole. This cycle is very different, at least from my point of view. People were obsessed about Solana in 2023 and for most of this year, 2024. Then around the election the market started pumping, BTC and ADA got all the attention. Over the last few weeks, those two consolidated while XRP, XLM and HBAR recently have been raging hard lol.

I think we are still early in the bull run BUT retail is now starting to enter into the space. One thing I am prepared for though is the possibility this peaks much sooner than we may be prepared for. Last cycle, 2020-2021, the market was still cheap in October '20, BTC was at 10k and ETH was around $400-$500 or so. 6 months later BTC was 50k+ and ETH was trading at around 4k. This can happen so fast seemingly out of nowhere that people aren't really prepared and basically get stuck holding the bags.

As for XRP specifically, it's been in the top 10 for years but literally didn't do much, even now it's still only around ATH from quite a while ago, 2017/2018. Meanwhile, you could have easily surpassed this just by buying BTC during that entire time, the safest project in this asset class.

 

[jaygreenb]

I distinctly recall last cycle and how the overall market just pumped as a collective whole. This cycle is very different, at least from my point of view. People were obsessed about Solana in 2023 and for most of this year, 2024. Then around the election the market started pumping, BTC and ADA got all the attention. Over the last few weeks, those two consolidated while XRP, XLM and HBAR recently have been raging hard lol.

I think we are still early in the bull run BUT retail is now starting to enter into the space. One thing I am prepared for though is the possibility this peaks much sooner than we may be prepared for. Last cycle, 2020-2021, the market was still cheap in October '20, BTC was at 10k and ETH was around $400-$500 or so. 6 months later BTC was 50k+ and ETH was trading at around 4k. This can happen so fast seemingly out of nowhere that people aren't really prepared and basically get stuck holding the bags.

As for XRP specifically, it's been in the top 10 for years but literally didn't do much, even now it's still only around ATH from quite a while ago, 2017/2018. Meanwhile, you could have easily surpassed this just by buying BTC during that entire time, the safest project in this asset class.

I think part of it is the secret is out with alts, you have to take profits, so you are getting larger holders with experience pulling the trigger sooner since they don't want to go through with roundtripping again. That is certainly how I am looking at my alt bags, going to DCA out of them on any pumps.

In my opinion, the change in the market dynamics is with BTC. You are now going to have an increasing constant base level of demand coming from Saylor, corp entities, institutions and govts. The sentiment has also changed on this is something you just hold and not try and trade/market time. Certainly possible we get increases in waves then a shorter correction then another wave up. Imagine we have some level of alt seasons attached to those waves up too.

 

[sangheilios]

I think part of it is the secret is out with alts, you have to take profits, so you are getting larger holders with experience pulling the trigger sooner since they don't want to go through with roundtripping again. That is certainly how I am looking at my alt bags, going to DCA out of them on any pumps.

In my opinion, the change in the market dynamics is with BTC. You are now going to have an increasing constant base level of demand coming from Saylor, corp entities, institutions and govts. The sentiment has also changed on this is something you just hold and not try and trade/market time. Certainly possible we get increases in waves then a shorter correction then another wave up. Imagine we have some level of alt seasons attached to those waves up too.

Yeah, those are my thoughts with BTC as well. However, I do believe the market will have period of over and undervaluation, but with BTC specifically the volatility will be greatly diminished. I think this cycle we see BTC peak around 130-160k or so, I'd be very surprised to see it go past 200k. We then tank to maybe 65-75k or somewhere around that area. My counter to it constantly going up year to year is to look at what happened this year with the ETFs. Despite the ETF inflows, we still saw BTC peak around 75k and then plummet to 48k this past August. I believe we will continue to see this type of action, but with volatility being reduced. At the end of the day, going from 75k to 48k at the BOTTOM is really not that big of a deal in the crypto space. Hell, even with the bear market of 2022 we went from a peak of 69k to a bottom of 16.5k, and that was after a huge streak of insane catalysts (Terra Luna, Celsius, FTX, etc.).

As for alts, I think this has always been a factor but since the market cap of the asset class is greater the volatility isn't quite as intense as it used to be. Only a very small number of people have enough invested to where it's really that big of a deal. I guarantee 90%+ of retail investors that entered in 2021 or in this cycle invested no more than $2000-$3000, as this is actually a lot of money for most people and not something they will throw into an asset class they are unfamiliar with. They also buy in at less than ideal times, so it's not like they invest 2k and watch it take off to 30k lol. Most people are investing low 4 figures or 3 figures, maybe they see it go up a tad and then they slowly watch it retrace and they start selling at losses, which is what ultimately leads to the market selling off further. Stuff like what is happening right now with XRP is a fantastic example, people weren't buying when it was at 50 cents and under, they are buying when it's already pumped. I think this type of narrative will remain in the alt space because the projects with bigger market caps (BTC, ETH, etc.) will not see the kind of volatility to attract this type of attention.

 

[jaygreenb]

Yeah, those are my thoughts with BTC as well. However, I do believe the market will have period of over and undervaluation, but with BTC specifically the volatility will be greatly diminished. I think this cycle we see BTC peak around 130-160k or so, I'd be very surprised to see it go past 200k. We then tank to maybe 65-75k or somewhere around that area. My counter to it constantly going up year to year is to look at what happened this year with the ETFs. Despite the ETF inflows, we still saw BTC peak around 75k and then plummet to 48k this past August. I believe we will continue to see this type of action, but with volatility being reduced. At the end of the day, going from 75k to 48k at the BOTTOM is really not that big of a deal in the crypto space. Hell, even with the bear market of 2022 we went from a peak of 69k to a bottom of 16.5k, and that was after a huge streak of insane catalysts (Terra Luna, Celsius, FTX, etc.).

As for alts, I think this has always been a factor but since the market cap of the asset class is greater the volatility isn't quite as intense as it used to be. Only a very small number of people have enough invested to where it's really that big of a deal. I guarantee 90%+ of retail investors that entered in 2021 or in this cycle invested no more than $2000-$3000, as this is actually a lot of money for most people and not something they will throw into an asset class they are unfamiliar with. They also buy in at less than ideal times, so it's not like they invest 2k and watch it take off to 30k lol. Most people are investing low 4 figures or 3 figures, maybe they see it go up a tad and then they slowly watch it retrace and they start selling at losses, which is what ultimately leads to the market selling off further. Stuff like what is happening right now with XRP is a fantastic example, people weren't buying when it was at 50 cents and under, they are buying when it's already pumped. I think this type of narrative will remain in the alt space because the projects with bigger market caps (BTC, ETH, etc.) will not see the kind of volatility to attract this type of attention.

If I had to guess bitcoin is going to trend at an average 35-45% CAGR for the next decade with years of overperformance and underperformance and slowly ratchet down has we reach mass adoption. The last 4yrs are at 50% CAGR. Saylor thinks we settle around 20%, but who knows.

The Case for Bitcoin

Keep track of the macro environment and where Bitcoin sits within it. CaseBitcoin provides key stats, a growing library of the best Bitcoin investment content that makes the case for Bitcoin, and day-to-day coverage of why more and more people are seeking refuge in Bitcoin.

casebitcoin.com

One thing to consider as well, news is coming out of just how hard the government nerfed the last bull run with operation choke point 2.0 and all the debanking. It is incredible on just how immoral and corrupt they acted. Point being, not sure last bull run is a good representative on what a normal return progression will be. Also the China mining ban mid bull run we pretty impactful as well plus all the events you listed. The fact that we are where are today shows just how resilient the industry is.

 

[sangheilios]

If I had to guess bitcoin is going to trend at an average 35-45% CAGR for the next decade with years of overperformance and underperformance and slowly ratchet down has we reach mass adoption. The last 4yrs are at 50% CAGR. Saylor thinks we settle around 20%, but who knows.

The Case for Bitcoin

Keep track of the macro environment and where Bitcoin sits within it. CaseBitcoin provides key stats, a growing library of the best Bitcoin investment content that makes the case for Bitcoin, and day-to-day coverage of why more and more people are seeking refuge in Bitcoin.

casebitcoin.com

One thing to consider as well, news is coming out of just how hard the government nerfed the last bull run with operation choke point 2.0 and all the debanking. It is incredible on just how immoral and corrupt they acted. Point being, not sure last bull run is a good representative on what a normal return progression will be. Also the China mining ban mid bull run we pretty impactful as well plus all the events you listed. The fact that we are where are today shows just how resilient the industry is.

I'm thinking the total market cap of this asset class peaks around 10 trillion or so this cycle. What might be solid performers this cycle, aside from BTC, might not even be relevant 10+ years from now. Again, I think this all points to just holding BTC long term and everything else is for generating profit. I really can't say where BTC may be heading long term, I think 1 million per coin is very realistic given the sheer demand that will occur over the coming years with the ETFs, government reserve holdings, etc. However, this is going to take at least a couple halving cycles, 2028 and 2032. It's very quickly becoming out of reach for the overwhelming majority of people, even just .01 BTC right now is close to $1000, which is a lot of money for most Americans, let alone those not living in other 1st world countries.

I had a conversation with a crypto retail noob today about XRP, the one I've cited a few times on this thread. He kept saying that it was going to $100 easily. I then reminded him that would give XRP a market cap of over 5 trillion, greater than the entire crypto market right now as I'm writing this lol. I then told him that the majority of the gains for XRP this cycle have already happened and that for it do another 2x+ from here would be much more difficult. People like this just don't get it. XRP might not even be relevant 10 years from now, who knows.

If you had bought BTC at the bear market low of 2022, 20k and under, you'd be up by similar margins to those who bought XRP at under 50 cents this cycle. The former is the safest asset in the space, the other was a speculative move that just happened to do well that easily could have been a weak performer.

 

[jaygreenb]

I'm thinking the total market cap of this asset class peaks around 10 trillion or so this cycle. What might be solid performers this cycle, aside from BTC, might not even be relevant 10+ years from now. Again, I think this all points to just holding BTC long term and everything else is for generating profit. I really can't say where BTC may be heading long term, I think 1 million per coin is very realistic given the sheer demand that will occur over the coming years with the ETFs, government reserve holdings, etc. However, this is going to take at least a couple halving cycles, 2028 and 2032. It's very quickly becoming out of reach for the overwhelming majority of people, even just .01 BTC right now is close to $1000, which is a lot of money for most Americans, let alone those not living in other 1st world countries.

I had a conversation with a crypto retail noob today about XRP, the one I've cited a few times on this thread. He kept saying that it was going to $100 easily. I then reminded him that would give XRP a market cap of over 5 trillion, greater than the entire crypto market right now as I'm writing this lol. I then told him that the majority of the gains for XRP this cycle have already happened and that for it do another 2x+ from here would be much more difficult. People like this just don't get it. XRP might not even be relevant 10 years from now, who knows.

If you had bought BTC at the bear market low of 2022, 20k and under, you'd be up by similar margins to those who bought XRP at under 50 cents this cycle. The former is the safest asset in the space, the other was a speculative move that just happened to do well that easily could have been a weak performer.

You obviously know I agree with your sentiments on bitcoin and relative risk/reward profile lol It can be really hard to get the point across to new people in the space coming during a bull market, I really don't debate it much anymore. I'll just give my opinion if asked. It's easy to believe any BS an influencer is saying when the price is pumping. Also come to the conclusion is most people have no issue being lied to as long you tell them they will become rich with minimal effort haha

 

[sangheilios]

You obviously know I agree with your sentiments on bitcoin and relative risk/reward profile lol It can be really hard to get the point across to new people in the space coming during a bull market, I really don't debate it much anymore. I'll just give my opinion if asked. It's easy to believe any BS an influencer is saying when the price is pumping. Also come to the conclusion is most people have no issue being lied to as long you tell them they will become rich with minimal effort haha

To be honest, I think a lot of it relates to the emotional roller coaster of the markets, and crypto is a way more volatile and wild ride so it's far more apparent/obvious. People buy some coin and when it pumps they feel like a genius and that they were "right all along" or "I've been telling you for years" lol. They may also see an otherwise solid project selling off or consolidating as a sign that it's "dead" and then flip from that into something that is pumping and near all time highs, like Solana or XRP now. These same people will not sell when the market is pumping and hold as it starts selling off and eventually capitulate. Ideally, they are capitulating when they are break even or slightly up, basically just going back to where they started. Worst case though is they sell at huge losses. I'd also say those flipping back and forth chasing the pump are not considering capital gains taxes lol.

 

[jaygreenb]

To be honest, I think a lot of it relates to the emotional roller coaster of the markets, and crypto is a way more volatile and wild ride so it's far more apparent/obvious. People buy some coin and when it pumps they feel like a genius and that they were "right all along" or "I've been telling you for years" lol. They may also see an otherwise solid project selling off or consolidating as a sign that it's "dead" and then flip from that into something that is pumping and near all time highs, like Solana or XRP now. These same people will not sell when the market is pumping and hold as it starts selling off and eventually capitulate. Ideally, they are capitulating when they are break even or slightly up, basically just going back to where they started. Worst case though is they sell at huge losses. I'd also say those flipping back and forth chasing the pump are not considering capital gains taxes lol.

Mashinky pled guilty, supposedly the charges carry 30yrs he pled too, haven't verified that though.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Alts starting to pop off even as BTC falls...alt season beginning which could signal a local top for BTC as well for a while...would not be surprised to see a moderate pull back to maybe 70-75K before blasting up and thru 100K

Will have to go back and look to see what BTC did after alt season started in previous cycles.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

And there it goes, blasting thru 101K!

 

[sangheilios]

@jaygreenb

I look at the recent price action as alts basically just playing catch up to BTC, as the liquidity moved from that after it's huge pump and into alts. Some then flipped the liquidity from alts into BTC, thus why we broke through 100k, which is something we can see with holder data, ADA is a good example. I'm not a short term trader, but I can see the pattern very quickly. I'm expecting BTC to be the focus of the show through the rest of this year and maybe through January. Alts will follow along, but the true alt season I think we still have at least a couple more months to wait for.....only time will tell.

 

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb

I look at the recent price action as alts basically just playing catch up to BTC, as the liquidity moved from that after it's huge pump and into alts. Some then flipped the liquidity from alts into BTC, thus why we broke through 100k, which is something we can see with holder data, ADA is a good example. I'm not a short term trader, but I can see the pattern very quickly. I'm expecting BTC to be the focus of the show through the rest of this year and maybe through January. Alts will follow along, but the true alt season I think we still have at least a couple more months to wait for.....only time will tell.

Congrats on 100k, been quite the journey. I can see that playing out but I am probably one of the worst traders on the planet haha. That would be pretty on par with previous cycles, would love a monster alt season so I can dump it all!

 

[Solomon]

Gentleman I hope your bags are packed and loaded, make sure to have an exit strategy
This month just started but buckle up, just bought more XLM and Shiba Inu
My angus is peppered PAUSE

 

[BackInTheGame78]

@jaygreenb

I look at the recent price action as alts basically just playing catch up to BTC, as the liquidity moved from that after it's huge pump and into alts. Some then flipped the liquidity from alts into BTC, thus why we broke through 100k, which is something we can see with holder data, ADA is a good example. I'm not a short term trader, but I can see the pattern very quickly. I'm expecting BTC to be the focus of the show through the rest of this year and maybe through January. Alts will follow along, but the true alt season I think we still have at least a couple more months to wait for.....only time will tell.

Unsure about this as BTC.D is Bearish on the Daily and Weekly charts. However we have a long bottoming wick on the weekly so that could mean we see a reversal coming up...unsure if that would push thru previous swing high tho...

 

[sangheilios]

Unsure about this as BTC.D is Bearish on the Daily and Weekly charts. However we have a long bottoming wick on the weekly so that could mean we see a reversal coming up...unsure if that would push thru previous swing high tho...

View attachment 13559

@jaygreenb

The trend is that BTC dominance is starting to decline. Prior to the election alts were still very low, ADA was under 40 cents and ETH was at under 3k. BTC takes off during/after the election, alts more or less just followed along. However, 2nd half of November we saw a very strong alt run with XRP, ADA, XLM and others while BTC more or less consolidated a little under 100k. BTC wasn't ready to break this psychological level yet, it needed time and to build some support. Those alts seemed to have topped out not that long ago and started to sell off a bit, probably people taking a bit of profit and even flipping that liquidity into BTC to keep it in the market, which provides the fuel needed for it to have broken 100k. BTC may continue to ladder up for the next couple months or so, alts will follow along and basically repeat the pattern I described above and eventually we will have a full scale alt season, we just aren't there quite just yet.

This can all happen in a relatively short period of time, potentially by late spring of 2025, or perhaps we see a more drawn out market next year, similar to 2017. Either way, it doesn't really matter to me, as I have no control over it. Those who have already created positions are just going along for the ride.

 

[jaygreenb]

@jaygreenb

The trend is that BTC dominance is starting to decline. Prior to the election alts were still very low, ADA was under 40 cents and ETH was at under 3k. BTC takes off during/after the election, alts more or less just followed along. However, 2nd half of November we saw a very strong alt run with XRP, ADA, XLM and others while BTC more or less consolidated a little under 100k. BTC wasn't ready to break this psychological level yet, it needed time and to build some support. Those alts seemed to have topped out not that long ago and started to sell off a bit, probably people taking a bit of profit and even flipping that liquidity into BTC to keep it in the market, which provides the fuel needed for it to have broken 100k. BTC may continue to ladder up for the next couple months or so, alts will follow along and basically repeat the pattern I described above and eventually we will have a full scale alt season, we just aren't there quite just yet.

This can all happen in a relatively short period of time, potentially by late spring of 2025, or perhaps we see a more drawn out market next year, similar to 2017. Either way, it doesn't really matter to me, as I have no control over it. Those who have already created positions are just going along for the ride.

That is really the only strategy that has ever worked for me, be patient and let the market come to me and buy/sell when the opportunity is there. I try to only buy things at this point that I am willing to hold for at least 5-10yrs. I have never done consistently well trying to market time something in the short term. Doesn't mean others can't pull it off, just not my skillset.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

Wow, huge dump out of the all time high past 103K