I believe the current statistic is at least 40 percent of Generation Z men over 21 have never been intimate with a woman. The problem is that whilst all but an insignificant minority of these men report wanting sex in theory, none of these surveys seem to quantify exactly how much effort these sexless men have put in to changing that in practice, making it hard to determine whether hoeflation or male chickenisation is the primary factor here.
The oldest members of Generation Z are turning 28 in 2025.
If approximately 40% of 21-28 year old Gen Z males (1997-2004 births) have never had sex with a woman, that's an alarming statistic.
Good or great survey design would be able to quantify the difference between wanting sex in theory and the level of effort to get sex in practice.
More men are invisible to women now. Most men have a terrible match rate on their right swipes on swipe apps. It's also difficult to have an Instagram profile that will incentive women to respond to DMs. Most of these sexless males have a weak Instagram presence.
At bars, it's easy to be invisible too. Daygame is a niche activity, so I don't think a lot of 21-28 year olds are approaching in non-bar venues. The typical 25 year old in 2025 isn't approaching women in a grocery store.
I think it is more of hoeflation and hypergamy than an epidemic of wimp males. Males tend to check out of dating after experiencing bad results and feeling invisible from constant rejection and not getting IOIs from women.
The typical Boomer and older Gen X (1965-1974) would be incel or borderline incel if he were the same age as his Millennial or Gen Z son has been during the 2010s-2020s. It's a far more difficult sexual marketplace than the Boomers dealt with in young adulthood during the 1970s-early 1980s or Gen X dealt with during the late 1980s-1990s.
For Millennials and Gen Z, it's common to think about the idea of how realistic it would have been for their parents to get together if the Big 3 swipe apps (Tinder, Bumble, and Hinge) had existed when they were single in the late 20th Century. When most Millennials and Gen Z think about this, they answer that question with no.
I doubt that my parents would have gotten together if swipe apps existed around the time they met.