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Do you think the housing shortage is due to so many bachelor men not living with women?

MatureDJ

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I think we've all seen the housing shortage that is upon us, but it's not like there's been a lot of immigration (the recent surge in asylees notwithstanding) since 2016, and the fertility rate is below replacement level.

This leads me to one conclusion: the housing shortage is due to the explosion of bachelor males and hypergamic chicks having their own places instead of them living together either in legal or common-law marriage (i.e., shacking up).


 

MatureDJ

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There's been a lot of immigration.
Has there? From 2017-01-20 to 2021-01-20, there are a lot less immigration, and even negative immigration due to COVID (e.g., the Mexicans living next door to me were gone by the time I got back from the GeoMaxxing trip I had done in which COVID had exploded on the scene). OK, there's been a little increase in net immigration because of the asylum folks abusing the system.
 

Veréngárda

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Yet another crap take meant to justify women being governmentally distributed without explicitly saying it.
 

2Rocky

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No people are living longer and remaining independent in their homes.

The world going from 7.5 Billion people to 9 Billion in 2050 is predicated on longer lifespans, not increased birthrates.
 

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SW15

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No, it's not the only reason. Think about the housing that bachelor men not living with women demand. Bachelor men not living with women prefer to live in one bedroom apartments and not most single family houses. The single family houses built in the suburbs since the 1950s are of little interest to bachelor men. Those are designed for bigger families, even the smaller and older single homes of the 1950s-1970s.
 

Mike32ct

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Homes are being bought up by investors and turned into expensive rentals.

Small/individual home buyers can’t compete with large/institutional investors. Higher interest rates, while necessary, will make it even worse for the individual home buyer because they rely on mortgages rather than paying cash.
 
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lost_blackbird

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There's been a lot of immigration.
I prefer the term 'forced diversity to ultimately facilitate population change'.
We were never asked, they were just foisted upon us and our economy.
Huge parts of my country have been completely swamped, with all the fun and
games that introducing an ultimately predatory group brings. I used to own a few
houses, but they would be a roof over someone's head regardless of who actually
owns the place. It's not adding to a shortage of housing unless I bought them and
then let them sit empty. Huge cutbacks in the free money we dole out to these grifters
is the only thing that might convince them to go elsewhere. The European economic
migrant crisis is in full swing and since the UK and Sweden offer the most free money
in Europe to anyone with a bleeding heart story and a complete lack of identification
so it's not hard to see why these 'refugees' pass through umpteen safe countries to
suckle on our overly generous teats. But at least there's lots of choice of cuisine and
a countrywide network of grooming gangs and FGM wallahs.
 

jaygreenb

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Homes are being bought up by investors and turned into expensive rentals.

Small/individual home buyers can’t compete with large/institutional investors. Higher interest rates, while necessary, will make it even worse for the individual home buyer because they rely on mortgages rather than paying cash.
This may actually begin to change if interests rates stay high and continue to go up. Cap rates will be similar to interest yields, will have to see
 

EyeBRollin

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This may actually begin to change if interests rates stay high and continue to go up. Cap rates will be similar to interest yields, will have to see
The interest rate hikes have done nothing to curb inflation. It was always a bullshvt solution. Inflation is caused by supply and demand. This inflation is of the demand-pull type.

In short, there are too many people chasing too few goods and dwellings.
 

jaygreenb

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The interest rate hikes have done nothing to curb inflation. It was always a bullshvt solution. Inflation is caused by supply and demand. This inflation is of the demand-pull type.

In short, there are too many people chasing too few goods and dwellings.
Yes, it is all BS, basically only going to cause demand destruction in the short term. Rising rates are going to have a number of other effects besides borrowing/lending was the point I was making, especially with intuitional investors.

 

EyeBRollin

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Yes, it is all BS, basically only going to cause demand destruction in the short term. Rising rates are going to have a number of other effects besides borrowing/lending was the point I was making, especially with intuitional investors.

One thing to note that is lost on the housing conversation-

The demand for housing is high, too high, because American marriage rates are falling. Single man + single woman = 2 dwellings. Married households only occupy one dwelling.

Invest in real estate and pet food. The trend will only get worse.
 

SW15

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Invest in pet food.
Almost all Millennials have pets. It's insane! Millennials did pet ownership way different than the Boomers or even Gen X'ers. It used to be that some people got pets after they got married and got a single family house. Starting in the late 2000s, Millennials upended that model. Millennials, especially Millennial women, wanted their pets and wanted their pets NOW! Millennials weren't willing to wait until they were in a good life stage for pet ownership.

When I moved to my current city in the early 2010s, I got on the popular dating websites of their time. This was before swipe apps. I was astounded that mostly every woman was a pet owner. At the time, I thought that women who used dating websites were more likely to be pet owners. My hypothesis back then was that pet owning women were less desirable and needed the websites to find men.

It turned out there was a Millennial tsunami of pet owners.

Single women are worse than single men about getting pets. Some single women end up with pets as husband and child replacements at a certain point in life. However, with a lot of women getting pets even before they turn 25, women aren't giving this enough time. Getting a pet does not make a woman a better girlfriend or wife prospect. It typically makes her a worse prospect as a girlfriend and potential wife.
 

AAAgent

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I think we've all seen the housing shortage that is upon us, but it's not like there's been a lot of immigration (the recent surge in asylees notwithstanding) since 2016, and the fertility rate is below replacement level.

This leads me to one conclusion: the housing shortage is due to the explosion of bachelor males and hypergamic chicks having their own places instead of them living together either in legal or common-law marriage (i.e., shacking up).



I think it would help to clarify what you mean by housing shortage? I know in my neighborhood, there's already 3 unsold listings that I drive by. 2 have been there for a month or longer now. Another has been there for 2 weeks. Market supply of homes on the market have gone up while demand has almost completely halted. I know many people who aren't moving out of their apartments anymore because these new rent prices continue to increase faster and faster. It doesn't make sense to move out if your rent will increase by 30% when you can stay for significantly less increase and not pay the moving fees.

Wealthy and intelligent people are holding off from buying as they know rates will go up in the forseeable future. It's already been telegraphed by the market and fed.
--

If you're talking about the rental market, I'm guessing most people here don't live in the major blue metro cities where there's mass exodus of people leaving due to crime, politics, taxes, etc. Those city folk are leaving for more rural areas which may be why the rest of America is starting to see their towns/smaller cities being flooded with new people.

If you have a variable rate.......rip.
 

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jaygreenb

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One thing to note that is lost on the housing conversation-

The demand for housing is high, too high, because American marriage rates are falling. Single man + single woman = 2 dwellings. Married households only occupy one dwelling.

Invest in real estate and pet food. The trend will only get worse.
Like all major markets there are so many variables constantly changing and being affected as knock on effects of other variables, it is a fools errand trying to predict what/when something will happen. Especially when policies and governments can change market forces at a whim. It is really just operating on probabilities, managing the downside risk, and not getting caught completely offsides. In general Real estate has been an incredible investment vehicle, one thing to keep in mind is well is that it will be a sitting duck for tax increases as governments have massive shortfalls and the baby boomer population aging looking to downsize or sell. Overall agree on Real estate though, but personally will be very location/use case dependent.

Couldn't agree more on pets though, high end ecommerce pet products is probably one of the better industries to be a part of the next few decades.
 

MatureDJ

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I think it would help to clarify what you mean by housing shortage? I know in my neighborhood, there's already 3 unsold listings that I drive by. 2 have been there for a month or longer now. Another has been there for 2 weeks. Market supply of homes on the market have gone up while demand has almost completely halted. I know many people who aren't moving out of their apartments anymore because these new rent prices continue to increase faster and faster. It doesn't make sense to move out if your rent will increase by 30% when you can stay for significantly less increase and not pay the moving fees.

Wealthy and intelligent people are holding off from buying as they know rates will go up in the forseeable future. It's already been telegraphed by the market and fed.
--

If you're talking about the rental market, I'm guessing most people here don't live in the major blue metro cities where there's mass exodus of people leaving due to crime, politics, taxes, etc. Those city folk are leaving for more rural areas which may be why the rest of America is starting to see their towns/smaller cities being flooded with new people.

If you have a variable rate.......rip.
What we're seeing exactly now is due to the quick rise in interest rates along with what economists call "sticky prices". The general trend has been a shortage, which along with rock-bottom interest rates, is why the housing prices got so ridiculous.

And a lot of high prices is due cities getting so large that the fringe exurbs where land prices are still reasonable are so far away that few want to live there. And why is there so much demand? Because Jack & Jill each have the own places, which is due to Jill being hypergamous.
 

MatureDJ

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Almost all Millennials have pets. It's insane! Millennials did pet ownership way different than the Boomers or even Gen X'ers. It used to be that some people got pets after they got married and got a single family house. Starting in the late 2000s, Millennials upended that model. Millennials, especially Millennial women, wanted their pets and wanted their pets NOW! Millennials weren't willing to wait until they were in a good life stage for pet ownership.

When I moved to my current city in the early 2010s, I got on the popular dating websites of their time. This was before swipe apps. I was astounded that mostly every woman was a pet owner. At the time, I thought that women who used dating websites were more likely to be pet owners. My hypothesis back then was that pet owning women were less desirable and needed the websites to find men.

It turned out there was a Millennial tsunami of pet owners.

Single women are worse than single men about getting pets. Some single women end up with pets as husband and child replacements at a certain point in life. However, with a lot of women getting pets even before they turn 25, women aren't giving this enough time. Getting a pet does not make a woman a better girlfriend or wife prospect. It typically makes her a worse prospect as a girlfriend and potential wife.
Actually, I think a man can play MakeHerDogLikeYouGame. Dogs love tasty treats, and they will remember who gives them that.
 

MatureDJ

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No, it's not the only reason. Think about the housing that bachelor men not living with women demand. Bachelor men not living with women prefer to live in one bedroom apartments and not most single family houses. The single family houses built in the suburbs since the 1950s are of little interest to bachelor men. Those are designed for bigger families, even the smaller and older single homes of the 1950s-1970s.
I'm not so sure about that. I and a lot of my bachelor colleagues when I was young had single-family detached houses of "starter" size. Most of these guys got the houses for the big garage to store their bass boat, motorcycle, collector car, pinball machines, hobby workshop, etc. One guy that his dream home would be a 2000 ft^2 garage with a cheap trailer next to it, LOL.
 

Mike32ct

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Actually, I think a man can play MakeHerDogLikeYouGame. Dogs love tasty treats, and they will remember who gives them that.
I would prefer not to date a dog chick. If you end up living together (or at least staying over), you’ll get stuck walking it. She’ll want to roll over and go back to sleep and make her bf (aka step_dog_dad) walk the dog.
 
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