Crypto trading

[jaygreenb]

So many variables with commodities. I wouldn’t like to predict.

I concentrate on knowing when to buy. That’s the easy part. Knowing when to sell is the hard bit.

Commodities tend to super cycle as you can’t increase supply rapidly, but on the demand side, it’s hard to see how this sustains without someone like China building a society.

Tough one to call.

commodity super cycles tend to be 10 years up and 20 down. We are only 10 years into the “down”

Yeah, a lot of demand destruction with raising rates and cutting back QE. I just like to sit in a trend I see happening over the next decade, not trade in and out. Maybe pull some off the table if things get really overheated.

 

[jaygreenb]

On balance and paper this is the right move. My fear is that this is being driven from energy prices, not CPI. Central banks can’t control the cost of oil.

oil falling would be a really good thing.

Core inflation is rising off the back of it though.

high inflation does have some benefits. My mortgage loan is decreasing while my house appreciates, although short term housing market cooling is inevitable.

Growth and tech stocks look cheap.

Yeah, a lot of variables pulling in different directions. Will be volatile both ways, at some point they will go back to cutting rates and QE. They just want to look like they are trying to tame inflation, reality is they would have to pull a Volker and get rates over the inflation rate to really get after it. That is literally impossible with all the debt out there.

Cheap debt like a mortgage in a high inflation environment is probably the best inflation hedge for the general public. As long you can still service the payments, like you said it gets cheaper.

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

I think you got the right idea, don't think there is any rush right now. I have bought a little since the last drop but am being patient. Think there is a lot more pain coming overall for the economy

I do too. I got greedy. I wanted it to go lower so I held go. Go figure it went up. I still got dry powder ready to deploy. Will be going hard on that next big dip . unfortunately given the way of the government and lock downs, talks of Monkey pox and war, a big emergency fund is now necessary. Access to liquid cash is a must.

Still formulating a plan and strategy.

 

[jaygreenb]

I do too. I got greedy. I wanted it to go lower so I held go. Go figure it went up. I still got dry powder ready to deploy. Will be going hard on that next big dip . unfortunately given the way of the government and lock downs, talks of Monkey pox and war, a big emergency fund is now necessary. Access to liquid cash is a must.

Still formulating a plan and strategy.

I think you will have another opportunity, believe the fed is going to stay the course until something in the debt markets break. Personally, right now is about positioning for either outcome and not getting caught completely offsides. For me that is being in bitcoin/eth, commodities, metals and a large cash position.

 

[Reyaj]

I've been accumulating this at all prices. If it's something that will be significant in the future it should be a good investment...

 

[DEEZEDBRAH]

I think you will have another opportunity, believe the fed is going to stay the course until something in the debt markets break. Personally, right now is about positioning for either outcome and not getting caught completely offsides. For me that is being in bitcoin/eth, commodities, metals and a large cash position.

Jimmy is talking about CBDC. Not sure why so many think that they will stop rate hikes. They likely won't and are planning to break something that they can't fix to excuse their master plan and WEF. There's some real sinister bond-like villains. Absolute monsters.

Same. Larger cash position. Initially I was annoyed I didn't ape in at 29k. Felt the same after 17k. Ready for the next dip but still a bit gun shy. I think we got 2 years of this **** or Damn close. I'm sticking the course. Was a big proponent of a emergency fund. 3-6 months. I now think 2 years is still necessity. Liquid cash in a personal fire proof safe or something.

Not to go tin foil hat but I can't wait for what next is to pop off.

 

[mmor]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

 

[andreihaha]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

Well, you're either going in at a very good or a terrible time.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

Late? You are at the near bottom of the market.

 

[Bingo-Player]

What metric exactly are you measuring the "bottom of the market" at

They were saying the same thing at 50k,40k,30k and now 20K

Nobody knows wtf it is going to do but if i had to bet either way it would be down

 

[Bible_Belt]

What metric exactly are you measuring the "bottom of the market" at

They were saying the same thing at 50k,40k,30k and now 20K

Nobody knows wtf it is going to do but if i had to bet either way it would be down

That account was banned after 5 fairly boring posts. Maybe it was a bot.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

What metric exactly are you measuring the "bottom of the market" at

They were saying the same thing at 50k,40k,30k and now 20K

Nobody knows wtf it is going to do but if i had to bet either way it would be down

There are bottoming formations like "W" bottoms that are very common and also look at confluences of moving averages, etc ...

The weekly bullish order block lies around 10-12K, which is where I expect us to eventually bottom out around.

 

[jaygreenb]

I want to start investing in crypto too, hope it is still not too late

I would say determine what amount you want to get in and slowly add and spread buys over the next 6-12months. Very hard to time bottoms and being new you definitely will not be able too. I would stick with majority BTC and some eth. Spend time really learning about what you are investing in. Happy to send some resources

 

[Bible_Belt]

the fed is going to stay the course until something in the debt markets break.

As much as I like to disagree with you, I think you summed up everything right there. The next question is at what point that happens. With corporate America hooked on cheap debt, rates can't go up that much without everything falling apart. So then the power of the fed is actually very limited, if they can't contain inflation with a few little rate hikes. Once it gets past them, then we are in uncharted territory, where the only way to tame inflation is to nuke the economy with mass bankruptcies.

 

[jaygreenb]

As much as I like to disagree with you, I think you summed up everything right there. The next question is at what point that happens. With corporate America hooked on cheap debt, rates can't go up that much without everything falling apart. So then the power of the fed is actually very limited, if they can't contain inflation with a few little rate hikes. Once it gets past them, then we are in uncharted territory, where the only way to tame inflation is to nuke the economy with mass bankruptcies.

Really no good options, the can has been kicked so far down the road for so long there really isn't a viable option. Attempt to save the currency and get inflation under control all markets completely meltdown. Attempt to save the markets and we potentially get hyper inflation. If I had to bet, at some point they will pivot since they most likely will see QE as the path of least resistance. Markets crashing cause so many issues with pensions, tax generation, etc

 

[jaygreenb]

Another long time skeptic bends the knee....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541138702524715008

 

[BackInTheGame78]

I would say determine what amount you want to get in and slowly add and spread buys over the next 6-12months. Very hard to time bottoms and being new you definitely will not be able too. I would stick with majority BTC and some eth. Spend time really learning about what you are investing in. Happy to send some resources

The bottom will not be in until the S&P bottom is in...hint, it isn't.

Looks like it's in the process of a dead cat bounce most likely.

 

[BackInTheGame78]

As much as I like to disagree with you, I think you summed up everything right there. The next question is at what point that happens. With corporate America hooked on cheap debt, rates can't go up that much without everything falling apart. So then the power of the fed is actually very limited, if they can't contain inflation with a few little rate hikes. Once it gets past them, then we are in uncharted territory, where the only way to tame inflation is to nuke the economy with mass bankruptcies.

Historically the rates are still near all time lows. We have a warped perspective of how things should be based on the last 15-20 years.

Mortgage rates in the 15-20+% range and car loans in the 14-17+% range were the norm.

Yeah prices were a lot cheaper then but people also made far less as well

 

[jaygreenb]

The bottom will not be in until the S&P bottom is in...hint, it isn't.

Looks like it's in the process of a dead cat bounce most likely.

I agree, a lot of it depends on what the Fed decides to do as far as timing. No rush to get into anything right now

Historically the rates are still near all time lows. We have a warped perspective of how things should be based on the last 15-20 years.

Mortgage rates in the 15-20+% range and car loans in the 14-17+% range were the norm.

Yeah prices were a lot cheaper then but people also made far less as well

The problem with this is if we get to any sort of historical norm in interests rates. All assets tied to cheap debt take a complete nosedive, mass bankruptcies of personal, corporate and govts, pension funds go belly up, max layoffs, tax receipts dry up etc Going to be an interesting decade..

 

[Bingo-Player]

Really no good options, the can has been kicked so far down the road for so long there really isn't a viable option. Attempt to save the currency and get inflation under control all markets completely meltdown. Attempt to save the markets and we potentially get hyper inflation. If I had to bet, at some point they will pivot since they most likely will see QE as the path of least resistance. Markets crashing cause so many issues with pensions, tax generation, etc

The "pivot" is going to be central banks and governments convincing the masses CBDC's are the only way to save the world