AAAgent's Crypto Journey

Spaz

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It's exactly because the vast majority of people don't think rationally that charts are predictable - herd-like boom and bust behavior is predictable.

Also, the reason why you get the dumps after the pumps is that long term holders are selling to newcomers. Most of the newcomers also sell at a loss, but some stay in. Between the holders and the new blood price bottoms then climbs again. Rinse and repeat.
Predictive tools can be used against predictive outcomes and used to much effectiveness.

There's a theory on it. It's how six-sigma hypothesis works. I use it extensively as an equipment engineer then as process engineer and later on as a R&D engineer on semiconductor processes to get the best possible yields.

Even with the very best of equipment or resources that produces constancy in production, coupled with the best charts to guide it, there's no guarantee. Yield sometimes drops despite being in a control environment. And thinking the same applies to individual human emotions would be highly risky given its volatility.

Dude, if charts really work on bitcoins everyone will get rich but the reality as you can see is opposite.
 

wifehunter

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Predictive tools can be used against predictive outcomes and used to much effectiveness.

There's a theory on it. It's how six-sigma hypothesis works. I use it extensively as an equipment engineer then as process engineer and later on as a R&D engineer on semiconductor processes to get the best possible yields.

Even with the very best of equipment or resources that produces constancy in production, coupled with the best charts to guide it, there's no guarantee. Yield sometimes drops despite being in a control environment. And thinking the same applies to individual human emotions would be highly risky given its volatility.

Dude, if charts really work on bitcoins everyone will get rich but the reality as you can see is opposite.
TA is only a 'probability indicator', not a 'definite indicator'. Think 'grey' vs 'black and white'

The strongest argument for this, is the OTC (over the counter) trading going on behind the scenes.

Sooo much of the actual market is not being factored in, or taken into account.

The truth is always revealed eventually.
 

switch7

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Dude, if charts really work on bitcoins everyone will get rich but the reality as you can see is opposite.

The majority of commodity traders that use charts do not make money either. Chart reading is extremely discretional, and the edge is extremely small. Good chart reading perhaps gives you a 5% edge over the market. So that's a lot of setups that look great on the screen but do not work out. Operating within such a grey area creates psychological hardship which requires a very tough mindset.

I don't know how useful TA is on bitcoin yet, however I believe it does have an effect. Best way to find out is do your own studies. Find 1000 instances of the same setup and record all nuances of the setup on spreadsheets then crunch data to see if the setup can be improved etc. If it has no promise try again with a new setup idea. Rinse repeat. That's how you find edge and become a successful trader. 99.9% of traders will not put this work in, and thats why 99.9% fail over the long term.
 

Bible_Belt

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Metastock could back test any system twenty years ago. Even back testing does not work as well as one might think, simply because the market changes frequently. I have had systems that were as simple as one particular stock at one particular time of day makes a predictable movement. And it worked.. until it didnt. No system works forever, or else one guy would have all the money. When it stops working, then it is time to write a book about it and start selling newsletters.

I believe in charts as much as anyone, but they are a lagging indicator. Any calculation that uses price will be lagging. Traders in the 1920's traded off ticker tape machines; there were no computer screens. But it is still the same information. Like a chess master can play blindfolded, a trader can trade without a chart and still make decisions based on price action.

Chart or no chart, human crowd emotion often follows predictable patterns, and those patterns are inherent in group psychology. Until computers make 100% of trading decisions on their own, I don't think that will change. And one of those patterns is always denial by market participants whose account is in the red, yet insist they are correct. When I traded company money, I would have been fired for such behavior immediately. That's amateur hour stuff; professionals don't get the luxury of justifying losses; they get fired first.
 

Spaz

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Yes crowd emotion or herd mentality plays are big role when it's prodded by outside forces.

Charts cannot predict incoming news that invariably galvanise human emotions.

Charts is also used to predict seasonal buying/selling - even that is not prediction but merely historical data. It's like in December where prices are historically low and picks up steam come January/February.

The only theory that I know of, that uses charts as a means to predict future outcomes base on previous data that's trending in a chart, is the 6-sigma hypothesis.

However the 6-sigma hypothesis works to great effect simply because it's applied in a controlled environment.

Unfortunately the world is not a controlled environment.
 

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switch7

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Yes crowd emotion or herd mentality plays are big role when it's prodded by outside forces.

Charts cannot predict incoming news that invariably galvanise human emotions.

Charts is also used to predict seasonal buying/selling - even that is not prediction but merely historical data. It's like in December where prices are historically low and picks up steam come January/February.

The only theory that I know of, that uses charts as a means to predict future outcomes base on previous data that's trending in a chart, is the 6-sigma hypothesis.

However the 6-sigma hypothesis works to great effect simply because it's applied in a controlled environment.

Unfortunately the world is not a controlled environment.
Charts can actually be utilised to predict news. There are those that know the news before it is announced and will have already placed themselves in the market to take the advantage of the mark up or down on price. So you can use charts to look for accumulation or distribution occurring before a news event. It’s not a sure thing though.

I think perhaps you have a misconception that there is some sure strategy in trading that exists somewhere where a trader will make guranteed money month in month out. This is what is projected by the industry so that brokers can take the average joes money and gamble it risk free. It’s how big companies like goldmans stay in business.
 

Spaz

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Charts can actually be utilised to predict news. There are those that know the news before it is announced and will have already placed themselves in the market to take the advantage of the mark up or down on price. So you can use charts to look for accumulation or distribution occurring before a news event. It’s not a sure thing though.

I think perhaps you have a misconception that there is some sure strategy in trading that exists somewhere where a trader will make guranteed money month in month out. This is what is projected by the industry so that brokers can take the average joes money and gamble it risk free. It’s how big companies like goldmans stay in business.
I've been trading shares since 1995..even made some money during the Asian economic crisis by tapping into technology sector in 1995 specifically buying/selling Creative technologies stocks throughout until 1997.

Just sharing my experiences.

Made some money off bitcoin too, bought early and sold off when it hit 1k.

I largely operate based on gut instincts. Got burned too many times by using charts and my total switch towards relying on gut instincts has proved profitable in the long run.
 

ChristopherColumbus

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Even with the very best of equipment or resources that produces constancy in production, coupled with the best charts to guide it, there's no guarantee. Yield sometimes drops despite being in a control environment. And thinking the same applies to individual human emotions would be highly risky given its volatility.

Dude, if charts really work on bitcoins everyone will get rich but the reality as you can see is opposite.
'Yield drops' sounds exactly like the log regression curve of the log chart I post. Of course, no guarantee.... but you should consider the risk/ reward ratio, which does not look to bad at these levels.

Even the late-comers on the current cycle will finally get rescued if the secular market in BTC plays out.

At what point would you buy if the price stabilized and then crept higher next year?

Edit.

As per investing on the basis of the chart, why would you invest otherwise? An investor talks a calculated risk on the basis of a perceived long term trend. This is not about day-trading here. The problem today is that investment and trading has largely become conflated... due perhaps to reducing attention spans. lol
 

ChristopherColumbus

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Made some money off bitcoin too, bought early and sold off when it hit 1k.
.
On the next spike [should it come] I plan to sell a third [average out], position trade a third [to replace what I sold], and hold a third. You want to keep some skin in the game.
 

ChristopherColumbus

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I think perhaps you have a misconception that there is some sure strategy in trading that exists somewhere where a trader will make guranteed money month in month out. This is what is projected by the industry so that brokers can take the average joes money and gamble it risk free. It’s how big companies like goldmans stay in business.
Yep, the idea that everyone can be a 'day-trader' is a big marketing scam.
 

switch7

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I've been trading shares since 1995..even made some money during the Asian economic crisis by tapping into technology sector in 1995 specifically buying/selling Creative technologies stocks throughout until 1997.

Just sharing my experiences.

Made some money off bitcoin too, bought early and sold off when it hit 1k.

I largely operate based on gut instincts. Got burned too many times by using charts and my total switch towards relying on gut instincts has proved profitable in the long run.
How long do you usually hold a position for?
 

Spaz

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How long do you usually hold a position for?
Depends.

There are long term holdings and short terms.

Short term holding is when I enter the market, trading at the moment market opens and sell within 2 hours - this is where I "earn gambling" money.

Long term can be for a couple of years on "safe" stocks like banking groups or utility giants - these is where I basically "save" money and "earn" better interests as time passes, their value invariably rises in tandem.

Just don't be caught up putting everything into 1 basket....
 

AAAgent

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Didn't know people were updating in my journal. long term trend is down. I've moved to cash half a year ago. nothing positive for the market or trend at the moment. I've been working at one of the best blockchain projects driving mainstream adoption as the head of growth. we've started from 5k users in october and are now at 300k+ users. no crypto speculator users for the most part and 50k+ daily active users actually using our product like any other product.

I'm expecting to bottom out somewhere in the 2k range for btc but really haven't had time to follow crypto since i've been busy working on building the first DApp to go mainstream.

moved from community to growth, btw. I'm better at that anyway.
 

AAAgent

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looks like there's a good shot to potentially break out in the next few weeks. We'll see.
 

switch7

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looks like there's a good shot to potentially break out in the next few weeks. We'll see.
breakout of what? There is nothing significant to break out of until we get into the 6k region. Any upwards movement before that means is still bear territory. In fact anything below 8k is a bear market imo.
 
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BeTheChange

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Now is the time to be accumulating. I am 90% in BTC and ELA.
 

AAAgent

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Let's see if we can hold above $4k. So far looking like a good chance for a potential stronger push up.
 

jaygreenb

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Now is the time to be accumulating. I am 90% in BTC and ELA.
I am about 70% BTC and have a lot of ELA myself. Wouldn't be surprised if we had one more leg down over the next few months but now is a good time to start DCA
 

AAAgent

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Update on my journey, since I haven't really provided updates. I was working for a small crypto company that ran out of funds. As they were running out of funds, I was trying hard to get them listed on larger exchanges, drive liquidity and use case, but it didn't look like it was working out. I took another chance on another crypto company that was disclosed when I interviewed. They flew me out to Cali, hired me, and I moved out there almost instantly.

I continued working at the old company for a few months remote while also working at the new company on probation. The small company went bankrupt and with no liquidity for their coin, they couldn't leverage the secondary market to do anything. I passed probation at the new company, got promoted to Growth Director a couple months ago, and are building out a blockchain product that is being used by 50-100k people daily. Most don't even really experience the crypto related part as we are on testnet.

During this bear market, I've lost a few million dollars worth of crypto through price depreciation. I ended up moving into cash a bit late, but was able to preserve a decent amount of cash and trade into some small gains here and there.

All in all, it's been a great journey. Made good money, lost a lot of money, spent a lot of money, and working on the next killer DApp. We're about 40-50% success rate and we have about 6 months to 12 months to increase that to 75%+ before listing. Once we list, i'm pretty sure we will shake the entire crypto economy and make headlines everywhere.
 

ChristopherColumbus

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breakout of what? There is nothing significant to break out of until we get into the 6k region. Any upwards movement before that means is still bear territory. In fact anything below 8k is a bear market imo.
Calm down, BTC has never been in bear territory [below the zero line on the MACD]. This is just another correction. Make sure you don't miss out on the next move up.

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