AAAgent's Crypto Journey

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,980
Reaction score
168
Location
New England
Screen Shot 2018-11-19 at 5.10.45 PM.png

30% down from area to "think about getting involved".

I would rather be called a high schooler than being called wrong. Time for you to stop pretending like you know whats going on. your charting doesn't work. its called accountability.
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,399
Reaction score
1,323
Age
52
Location
korea
lol. Here's the only chart that matters for the longer term investor... assuming the log growth curve holds, and so one hedges. Averaging in at the lower level on the correction has always been my policy.

average.png
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,980
Reaction score
168
Location
New England
That isn't the only chart that matters for a long term investor. You post those charts because they suit your narrative and little else. The market has broken after a mania which saw unsophisticated investors pile in on credit. Now these levels will act as resistance for a long time - how long no one has an idea.

It is instructive to look at leaders of the past. CSCO is a favorite of mine. lets pull up a chart of CSCO in the same vein you are looking at bitcoin, shall we? On the long term , since its IPO, the stock has still performed admirably. In the 90s it posted consecutive record earnings growth, and basically was ( and still is) a market leader. I bet you are even using a cisco product to read this post - assuming you or you ISP is using their routers!

So what happened for "long term investors" nearly 2 decades after its absolute peak? Well its still down 40%. The long term trend is still up, but that is nearly 20 years of opportunity cost lost. Cisco, unlike bitcoin continued to operate a profitable business and make money in those two decades. Bitcoin on the other hand might not be around in 20 years if governments do what they have done for thousands of years which is to control the minting of new money.

Losers adding to losers is not a winning strategy. I promise you all the promoters buying these alt coins are completely out of it now. Its best to admit you are wrong, and find another trade. There is nothing wrong with being wrong, but there is a lot wrong by trying to satisfy your narrative by recruiting others in order to build your own confirmation bias on a clearly broken trade.



Screen Shot 2018-11-23 at 10.42.47 AM.png
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,980
Reaction score
168
Location
New England
No, this is bitcoin.

Screen Shot 2018-12-08 at 4.18.58 PM.png

That is a bubble. The south sea company company for reference:

Screen Shot 2018-12-08 at 4.22.58 PM.png

Another good one from 1929, RCA the google of its time. Screen Shot 2018-12-08 at 4.25.06 PM.png

A bubble by any other name is still a bubble.
 

switch7

Master Don Juan
Joined
Dec 20, 2014
Messages
546
Reaction score
263
Location
uk
It's just tracks BTC… updated daily, and stretching right back.
tracks btc against what? i.e. dollar index tracks dollar against all other major currencies in a weighted basket. What is btc tracked against in this BNC liquid index?
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,980
Reaction score
168
Location
New England
Bubbles go back to zero. Where does this go back to zero? lol
bubbles do not have to go back to zero. This is 100% incorrect logic. Another case - AIG:

Screen Shot 2018-12-09 at 8.39.53 AM.png

One decade later, AIG still trades in the markets, and is still down 94% since 2008, and over 97% since its peak.
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,980
Reaction score
168
Location
New England
In 2014, crude oil crashed due to a confluence of oversupply and slowing demand. Over leveraged companies were in a bubble especially offshore companies such as seadrill. The company still exists today, and even reports a positive bottom line. Down 99% since its peak

Screen Shot 2018-12-09 at 8.46.42 AM.png

You can keep denying it by re-drawing your chart to suit your narrative. History is not on your side on this one.
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,399
Reaction score
1,323
Age
52
Location
korea
Speaking of history, relax a little bit and give it some time. Bouncing here at a predictable level.

save.png
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,980
Reaction score
168
Location
New England
I do think it will bounce. There are still plenty of people in the game. I was personally hoping for a bounce upto 5k before shorting on of the bitcoin trusts, but lately the selling has been pretty fierce. The question about how bitcoin would fare in the face of other market turmoil is being answered - europe, asia and the US markets are not doing well and bitcoin is doing much worse by comparison.
 

Spaz

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 14, 2018
Messages
7,003
Reaction score
5,395
Location
Somewhere where's it's none of your business
Charts can't be used as a predictive tool for bitcoins.

It's because the vast majority of people buying/trading bitcoins don't think rationally.

If the vast majority of people trading are highly intellectual people - who thinks rationally then using charts as a predictive tool works.

The problem is that the vast majority of humanity don't belong to the subset known as intellectuals - who doesn't think rationally which charts cannot predict given its nature.

Another problem would be big hoarders of bitcoins, they would sometimes dump their holdings and that causes drop in prices, something no chart can predict.
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,399
Reaction score
1,323
Age
52
Location
korea
Charts can't be used as a predictive tool for bitcoins.

It's because the vast majority of people buying/trading bitcoins don't think rationally.

If the vast majority of people trading are highly intellectual people - who thinks rationally then using charts as a predictive tool works.

The problem is that the vast majority of humanity don't belong to the subset known as intellectuals - who doesn't think rationally which charts cannot predict given its nature.

Another problem would be big hoarders of bitcoins, they would sometimes dump their holdings and that causes drop in prices, something no chart can predict.
It's exactly because the vast majority of people don't think rationally that charts are predictable - herd-like boom and bust behavior is predictable.

Also, the reason why you get the dumps after the pumps is that long term holders are selling to newcomers. Most of the newcomers also sell at a loss, but some stay in. Between the holders and the new blood price bottoms then climbs again. Rinse and repeat.
 
Top