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synergy1

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PM,

More fed shinanigans tody. an emergency 50 bip rate cut today ; the first since 2008. Powell claims its to dampen the economic effects of COVID19, but we all know its because stocks took one of the biggest drops in a week in decades. (certainly, since I started trading). Mnuchin also floats the idea of shutting down markets, so clearly the administration is politically incentivized to keep stocks up.

But what makes me bearish in the short term is that in the last 10 min of trading, we saw even more fading of the previous 3pm rally. So everything did a massive U turn AFTER a massive rate cut.

I positioned short ( shorting tech and small caps). Not sure if it'll work out, but I do forsee volatility, a retest of recent lows, and perhaps even lower lows coming up.

Glad as **** that my retirement is in all bonds, some gold, and some silver. I am going to avoid gold miners for now, and continue to BTD on either GLD, or the real thing going forward.
 

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Poonani Maker

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PM,

More fed shinanigans tody. an emergency 50 bip rate cut today ; the first since 2008. Powell claims its to dampen the economic effects of COVID19, but we all know its because stocks took one of the biggest drops in a week in decades. (certainly, since I started trading). Mnuchin also floats the idea of shutting down markets, so clearly the administration is politically incentivized to keep stocks up.

But what makes me bearish in the short term is that in the last 10 min of trading, we saw even more fading of the previous 3pm rally. So everything did a massive U turn AFTER a massive rate cut.

I positioned short ( shorting tech and small caps). Not sure if it'll work out, but I do forsee volatility, a retest of recent lows, and perhaps even lower lows coming up.

Glad as **** that my retirement is in all bonds, some gold, and some silver. I am going to avoid gold miners for now, and continue to BTD on either GLD, or the real thing going forward.
I was hovering over a trade on APT (makes masks) two Fridays ago. It was around $5 a share, the next Tuesday I look on Yahoo in the morning before I leave the house and I felt immediate regret as it had shot up to $37 to $40. That was my chance to rectify past bad decisions, but I didn't trade it and was too chickensh!t. I felt regret for two whole days though last week starting Tuesday. Anyway trading, as you have been around the block as I have been around the block and WATCHED these unusual years of wild multi-100-point swings that never used to really happen pre-2008. We can attribute this to high-frequency trading or whatever.

It's insane this yield curve upsidedown as it looks today. None of it makes any sense. sub-1% bonds???? who in their right mind would invest in this crap? besides the FEDERAL RESERVE, the crooks that they are. CDs are going for 2% in some banks, though depending on your tax bracket you get taxed out the wazoo like I just did for last year's interest gains, so you're really only making 1.76%. The book "Common Sense Investing" by John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard, states that we should see Only 4% returns over the next 10 years as opposed to the 9 to 11% we've seen since 1974 and 1900. He reasons that the EPS ratios are way too high at 27X (I'm sure it's much higher on average this year until our recent decline of 4000 pts in 5 days). He says that speculative return cannot be more than 27X over the next 10 years so that negates that and that it will most likely fall to 15 or 16X, thus -2% to -3%, so you got fund costs some 1.5 to 2%! Taxes, lower dividends at 2% (rather than the 1990s early 2000s dividend rate of 4 to 5%), so growth he predicts will be 2% over the next 10 years, which adds up to 4% but it will probably be lower.

The FED coming in and altering this prediction with cut rates to the negative and printing yet trillions more and Trump asking for "Quantitative Easing" as if these fvcks aren't already doing that with the REPO sh!t. I stay in my anti-bond, though I hovered over it last night considering cutting my losses after 10 years of steady decline. I almost made a move last night, but once again froze. I'm waiting for it to fall much much further, then I'll start a Roth ;) maybe. Nothing is real anymore, you can't compare anything to anything really.
 

logicallefty

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Haha sounds like something your broker told you.
The logic behind it is consistency. Being able to rinse and repeat your trading style. Not just have on good trade but not be able to repeat it again.
 

EyeOnThePrize

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The logic behind it is consistency. Being able to rinse and repeat your trading style. Not just have on good trade but not be able to repeat it again.
I'm familiar with what it takes to be a profitable trader ;)
 
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Von

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I took a few bigger losses this year after being wrong for longer than I wanted to. It hurt, but it felt liberating as well.

As for these markets, I totally agree they feel toppy; what gets me is how fast stocks have moved up since 9/17/19 which coincides when the repurchase markets started needing additional fed assistance. So for example, regular repo ops were around 5 billion dollars per day prior to sept 17 of last year. After 9/17, they started doing*on average* 50 billion dollars, with 12 instances over 100 billion dollars per day! They did this because repurchase rates went well above the fed funds rate - the fed's target. The same thing happened in different overnight markets (the TED/ OIS spread blew up) in 2007, a full year before the well-known 2008 crash. After digging, I am starting to think that the mechanism we are observing now, and what happened back then are actually quite similar.

What I don't understand is why liquidity is drying up. Why did the overnight markets lock up? Go look at the feds involvement in the repo market, and you'll see exactly what I mean. (see https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/tomo-results-display?SHOWMORE=TRUE&startDate=01/01/2000&enddate=01/01/2000). Finally the fed is usually lagging, so if they are doing things like cutting rates or stepping in to provide liquidity, the failure of the stability of the global financial system would be further along than what we are seeing.

My thought longer-term on markets is to be careful. Something is broken...
We seeing a japanisation of the market.

Debt for people and compagnies has reached levels beyond 2008.

People are starting to retire with fewer people to replace them.

The economy is fully global.

I share your concerns, I believe the current correction is just the beginning.

I'll keep my money invested for the next 12months than liquidify

Right now, I am gathering cash in my bank account + looking places to do investments loan at low rates and long amortization.. The loan would be not even 10% of my monthly income.. So I control the cash flow.

The new monetary policies are that cash is "free cash" and debt erasable.

A concern I got is when Gold crashed.. And the answer was: "to pay the leverage" .

Another concern: the indexes are crashing worldwide at similar space..it means index/robots have take control of the market.

If we follow history: the longer it goes up, the longer it will fall.

So cash + setting up borrowing strategies + identifying good investments products(index,stock,mutual fund etc) are my concerns for the next year
 
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