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What would you do if you won $100,000?

jaygreenb

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No, that’s not true. That’s what I am trying to tell you. On a relative basis, no matter what, lump sum wins
If the price is lower and you are putting in the same amount of cash, you will have more shares if the cash amount is the same
 

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If the price is lower and you are putting in the same amount of cash, you will have more shares if the cash amount is the same
Dude, I work for the biggest bank on the planet with the best research available to clientele. I’m telling you. Put your money in, don’t overthink it, the odds are in your favor. You begin to lose when you overthink and try to be smarter than the market.
 

jaygreenb

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Here you go dude, first one is 10k a month the past year, 120k total. Second one, is lump sum 120k last November. Dollar cost average you have a better return and more shares.

StockAAPL
Initial Investment$10,000.00
Recurring Monthly Investment$10,000.00
Initial # Shares60.847
# Monthly Investments12
Amount Invested$120,000.00
# Shares Bought767.784
Total Shares828.631
Total Value$122,728.51


Dollar-cost Average Calculator
StockAAPL
Initial Investment$120,000.00
Recurring Monthly Investment$0.00
Initial # Shares730.166
# Monthly Investments0
Amount Invested$0.00
# Shares Bought0.000
Total Shares730.166
Total Value$108,144.95
 

Divorced w 3

Master Don Juan
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Here you go dude, first one is 10k a month the past year, 120k total. Second one, is lump sum 120k last November. Dollar cost average you have a better return and more shares.

StockAAPL
Initial Investment$10,000.00
Recurring Monthly Investment$10,000.00
Initial # Shares60.847
# Monthly Investments12
Amount Invested$120,000.00
# Shares Bought767.784
Total Shares828.631
Total Value$122,728.51


Dollar-cost Average Calculator
StockAAPL
Initial Investment$120,000.00
Recurring Monthly Investment$0.00
Initial # Shares730.166
# Monthly Investments0
Amount Invested$0.00
# Shares Bought0.000
Total Shares730.166
Total Value$108,144.95
Last November. Congratulations. You bought the top of the market and waited 12 months. I said 5 year rolling average. Want to know why? For one reason, the market closes positive 75% of the time end of year. So as your dollar cost averaging over time, you’re buying higher 3/4 the time. This is publicly available. Google Guide to the Market by JPMorgan.
 

jaygreenb

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Dude, I work for the biggest bank on the planet with the best research available to clientele. I’m telling you. Put your money in, don’t overthink it, the odds are in your favor. You begin to lose when you overthink and try to be smarter than the market.
This is actually a little scary then lol Yes, most people can not time the market, I agree with that. You don't get a better return buying at higher price though. I have a degree in econ, worked and an investment management firm through my 20's. I have also made a lot of money investing
 

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jaygreenb

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Last November. Congratulations. You bought the top of the market and waited 12 months. I said 5 year rolling average. Want to know why? For one reason, the market closes positive 75% of the time end of year. So as your dollar cost averaging over time, you’re buying higher 3/4 the time. This is publicly available. Google Guide to the Market by JPMorgan.
That wasn't the point. You said you get a better return buying a peak lump sum than spreading buys out in a falling market as well as you would have less shares. This is not true.
 

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This is actually a little scary then lol Yes, most people can not time the market, I agree with that. You don't get a better return buying at higher price though. I have a degree in econ, worked and an investment management firm through my 20's. I have also made a lot of money investing
I edited on that quote , go back and look. I am an English major. English is a real discipline. Econ is a pseudo science. I manage a lot of money as a profession. I am backed by the best research known to man. Your investment firm likely paid for my research. I respect your opinion but I am making a statement of fact. The Bogleheads are wrong. Lol.
 

jaygreenb

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I edited on that quote , go back and look. I am an English major. English is a real discipline. Econ is a pseudo science. I manage a lot of money as a profession. I am backed by the best research known to man. Your investment firm likely paid for my research. I respect your opinion but I am making a statement of fact. The Bogleheads are wrong. Lol.
Telling someone to just go all in on anything right now is irresponsible. I don't think there is a successful investor alive who would say not to enter positions cautiously and slowly right now. I get why a financial advisor would say this or be trained to be, an increase in your AUM and also your fee. It also locks in that capital which keeps it relatively sticky. At other points in time that might make sense, at this point I strongly believe it does not. Dollar cost average doesn't need to be infinite but any large sums should not just be plowed in
 

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Telling someone to just go all in on anything right now is irresponsible. I don't think there is a successful investor alive who would say not to enter positions cautiously and slowly right now. I get why a financial advisor would say this or be trained to be, an increase in your AUM and also your fee. It also locks in that capital which keeps it relatively sticky. At other points in time that might make sense, at this point I strongly believe it does not. Dollar cost average doesn't need to be infinite but any large sums should not just be plowed in
i am licking my chops waiting to get a copy of this pdf and paste it in here lol. I’m not being trained to do anything. Empirical is a factual statement.
 

jaygreenb

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i am licking my chops waiting to get a copy of this pdf and paste it in here lol. I’m not being trained to do anything. Empirical is a factual statement.
What are you talking about, I literally just showed you how it worked out the past year. In a falling market, you will have a better return and more shares not buying lump sum at the peak. Not saying all times this should be done but we are at some pretty pivotal points with the economy, if your reports do not involve major financial events like the depression, it is really not applicable. We are converging on several long term cycles which are not going to be relevant to the past few decades.
 

jaygreenb

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i am licking my chops waiting to get a copy of this pdf and paste it in here lol. I’m not being trained to do anything. Empirical is a factual statement.
One last thing, there are a million variables and different parameters that can be used to manipulate data to get the outcome you want. The people creating these reports also directly benefit from having assets under control for the greatest amount of time. If you would really like to see some empirical data, look at the what the cost of fees does to your total return over a lifetime.


 
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