Trump is so stupid that he doesn't realize that folks are making fun of him by meming him into Nero

[EyeBRollin]

Like the ones that predicted Bernie would win the primary nomination a few weeks ago?

Like the ones that predicted Clinton winning Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and PA in 2016?

They didn’t.

I'd love to see the polls the MSM reported on daily that were spot on and had Trump winning the election.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#margins

The final spread was Clinton 48%, Trump 46%, Johnson 3.3%.

For you math majors, the forecast was well within the margin of error.

 

[corrector]

No it does not sound like asking.

You are apparently heavily biased because you never considered that it is very possible there WAS corruption.

Yes so you ask China and the Ukraine because you cant trust the FBI or CIA to do their jobs. Thanks for agreeing with my argument by admitting everything I just said. Two wrongs dont make a right.

 

[corrector]

1. He didn't ask. This is a very simple concept you are getting wrong.

2. Given that the FBI has had numerous levels of corruption exposed regarding the Russia conspiracy theory, and that Brennan the Muslim in the CIA was behind much of it....yeah, they are corrupt as hell.

3. Lastly, you are admitting then that Biden is corrupt, so what's the issue here?

You are a real patriot.

 

[EyeBRollin]

You just linked me to a map that has Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and PA going to Clinton.

No. That map forecasts about a 60% chance for those to go to Clinton. That’s not even one standard deviation. You will fail statistics class interpreting that as anything close to certainty.

 

[corrector]

I am.

Unlike Comey, Brennan and the other corrupt bastards.

I see you have run out of logic and resorted to personal attacks. Typical.

Putin agrees with you.

 

[corrector]

I'm not trying to downplay it and I don't blame people for taking precautions.

The problem is that people don't know exactly what to panic about.

The CDC has estimated that H1N1 killed 284,000 globally, and 80% of those people were under the age of 65.

With Covid-19, 80% of deaths in China were in those over 65 years old, and 75% of those were already sick before they got it.

We're seeing more of the same in the US and other counties.

Generally, the mortality rate doesn't exceed that of common influenza until you hit the 50+ age groups (0.2 to 0.4% at ages below 50) , and it doesn't exceed the estimated 3% (which is a high estimate by the way, with the lower at being 1%) until we hit 60+. Even then, 75% of reported deaths in this age group are with those already sick and already with a compromised immune system.

Anyone with a compromised immune system can die of the regular flu.

So the real worry here is exactly how many people have been dying of this virus that aren't already at a high risk of a life threatening scenario brought about by any common virus due to an already weak immune system?

I don't think that comes out to 4.5 million US Citizens.

The issue is more the panic buying as you mentioned before. You need to panic buy because shelves will be empty if you actually need it yourself. My motivations is partially worrying about empty shelves if I need.something rather than the.virus. i think its still good practise.to use hand sanitizers and keep hands clean and have gloves for yourself.

 

[EyeBRollin]

A 60% chance of winning in politics is a virtual lock in victory.

They were wrong.

That’s an F in statistics. “Virtual lock” in a data set is a minimum of two standard deviation units (95% certainty).

 

[EyeBRollin]

Were talking about politics, not the odds in a game of dice.

Human nature, deception, October Surprises, Hillary's emails, Comey... all kinds of sh*t going on.

You can sit here and talk standard deviations all day, but it doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost, the polls were off, most the MSM looked stupid and half the country had a hissy fit when they got a dose of that reality.

The polls were dead on accurate in 2016 and 2018. Ignore them at your peril.

 

[EyeBRollin]

As expected, those in the video omit the complex methodology used in the polling samples. Furthermore, National polls are far more accurate than state level polls because they are taken over time. Hundreds of polls over a 2 year cycle is far more accurate than 10 election polls taken in Michigan a few months before Election Day.

But do you boo boo. Trump will certainly lose the popular vote by 5-9% unless something earth shattering alters the current trajectory of the generic ballot. Good luck!

 

[EyeBRollin]

The point was simple. There were too many human nuances in play. You can talk as complicated as you want to, but the results won’t change.

Those are accounted for in all high quality polls.

The polls were off. Trump won. It’s etched in history.

The polls were correct. Numbers don’t lie.

You know presidential elections are not determined by the popular vote. I know you really wish that was the case, but it’s not. There is an electoral college for a reason.

Another false statement. Popular vote and electoral college results are correlated. If Trump loses the popular vote by 7% as the generic ballot currently suggests, he will also lose the electoral college.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Lol. Ok. We’ll just have to wait and see in November.

Can’t wait to see Trump lose!!

EDIT: @Amante Silvestre looks like a few betting sites peg Trump’s chances at 51-62%for re-election. You gonna call that a virtual lock?

 

[EyeBRollin]

At 51 no. But over 60? Yeah.

Told you. I’ll eat my boots if I’m wrong.

If you’ve ever played casino blackjack for money, book (billions of mathematical simulations) says to always double down on 11.

People often won’t do it against the dealer 10 value cards, but that hand 11 vs 10 is a 6-5 (55% win chance) advantage for the player. At 55%, you lose often. Way too often.

...that’s what Vegas says Trumps odds are right now.

 

[Ohso-Phresh]

Were talking about politics, not the odds in a game of dice.

Human nature, deception, October Surprises, Hillary's emails, Comey... all kinds of sh*t going on.

You can sit here and talk standard deviations all day, but it doesn't change the fact that Clinton lost, the polls were off, most the MSM looked stupid and half the country had a hissy fit when they got a dose of that reality.

An insightful documentary that exposes how Team Trump won the presidency through social media is ‘The Great Hack’.

We live in personal confirmation bias reality bubbles. Having an account on FB, creates a minimum of 5k datapoints (due to all the preferences of your social circle)

Clinton spent about 50k in targeted ads, Trump over 5mil.

I’m not a Trump fan but I respect what he accomplished. As a laughing stock in a large field of competitors, he owned them all.

He’s been able to survive political crises that would normally ended careers.
He is unapologetic for his behavior.
As much as I hate to admit it, He is a sexual male dominate in his own created reality.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Yes, but you’re talking about the odds of a card game. You’re odds aren’t going to go up or down because of the news or how people react a certain way. A card isn’t going to be deceptive over it’s true value. A particular card isn’t going to become more or less likely to come up just because you put down more money on the table than the other guy. Betters May bluff in poker, but the cards don’t lie.


Politics isn’t cards.

Statistics are what they are. You may want 60% to equal 100% but it doesn’t. 4/10 times you will still lose. You get an F.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Not the polls I saw in 2016.

Never bothered in 2018, we got the election that mattered.

Dead on accurate.

2018 House Forecast

FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 House elections

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2018 Senate Forecast

FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 Senate elections

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Don’t cry when Trump loses.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Now show me his 2016 prediction.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#margins

The final spread was Clinton 48%, Trump 46%, Johnson 3.3%.

For you math majors, the forecast was well within the margin of error.

And the post election analysis:

What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes

Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.…

fivethirtyeight.com

Trust math, folks.

 

[samspade]

It's March and the election isn't until November. We're still not 100% sure who the Dem candidate is, nor do we know if there will be a formidable third party candidate. Plus we're in the middle of a global health and economic roller coaster. There's still a looooong way to go and any "odds" at present time are just that.

However I would probably trust Harrah's over Nate Silver, lol.

 

[EyeBRollin]

It's March and the election isn't until November. We're still not 100% sure who the Dem candidate is, nor do we know if there will be a formidable third party candidate. Plus we're in the middle of a global health and economic roller coaster. There's still a looooong way to go and any "odds" at present time are just that.

However I would probably trust Harrah's over Nate Silver, lol.

Actually the odds today are >99% that Biden will be the Dem nominee. The last few national polls show almost a 20% lead over Sanders and even larger polling lead in delegate rich Michigan this evening.

Now THAT is what we call certainty.

The generic ballot just measures National mood in an election cycle. Because it’s taken continuously over 2 years, its the most stable polling indicator.

 

[samspade]

Actually the odds today are >99% that Biden will be the Dem nominee. The last few national polls show almost a 20% lead over Sanders and even larger polling lead in delegate rich Michigan this evening.

Now THAT is what we call certainty.

In the GOP, Trump leads William Weld 833 delegates to 1. I did not know William Weld was a candidate.

 

[EyeBRollin]

In the GOP, Trump leads William Weld 833 delegates to 1. I did not know William Weld was a candidate.

Some states completely shut down their Republican primary. Can’t have any challenge to Emperor Trump!