Greece.

[JustLurk]

The possibility that Greece could be unable to pay back debts must be considered.

This could have a slightly negative impact on the euro, and, indirectly, American banks.

 

[Strelok]

I heard the top dogs of euroland are considering to kick the Greece out of the euroland.

No big surprise that greek economy is so messed up, I read on the newspaper that there female unmarried relatives of municipal employee were entitled to some kind of salary and other stuff like that.
The gov employee were some kind of mafia and the gov was some kind of big octopus holding money everywhere, hope Im not confusing.

 

[JustLurk]

I heard the top dogs of euroland are considering to kick the Greece out of the euroland.

No big surprise that greek economy is so messed up, I read on the newspaper that there female unmarried relatives of municipal employee were entitled to some kind of salary and other stuff like that.
The gov employee were some kind of mafia and the gov was some kind of big octopus holding money everywhere, hope Im not confusing.

Focus on the chicks.. fine.
I'm just wondering which country(s) and their taxpayers eat the debt from all the money various banks poured into Greece. It's a free market for gains, but to save the economy someone decides to socialize the losses.

 

[r0cky]

SLIGHTLY negative impact? Try 10% drop overnight, and further in the long term. The banks around the world are already slidding because of the probability of a Greek default.
Its a catch 22 situation, because if Greece decides to implement the emasures necessary to prevent a default, the country will go into a civil war.

 

[Alle_Gory]

They already received a bailout package, they promised changes and then did absolutelly nothing.

A second one can't fix the glaring problems Greece has. Giving them free money is going to prop up their economy for a short while and then what? A third bailout?

They need to unfvck their government and economy.

An economy mainly of distributors, but few producers.

Sounds like the United States.

 

[Julius_Seizeher]

***** please, we hear so much about China but their economy is barely 1/3 the size of ours. China wants to build an empire of junk? Let em. But we should not be subsidizing their growth, all we need is pro-growth domestic policy, which will be: the government will get out of the way. It is inevitable, as the scale of the US government retracts it will behold a dawn of domestic production this country has not seen in 100 years.

It is the size of the government that is unsustainable, not a capitalistic economy. But despite all the nonsense, the American farmer is still the champion of ag production. Despite all the bs, the American steel industry is still the envy of the world. I toured the SDI flat roll mill at Fort Wayne, IN just today, and I can tell you first hand that there is no producer who can match the quality standards of what is produced in the US. Every time steel prices get too high, turkish and chinese freighters in holding patterns on our coasts come ashore to dump their cheap junk in our yards for us to scrap. Prices fall, bottom, and then our mills are right back to work, producing the best steel in the world. ****, everybody loves to hate on America while copying everything we do, the way we do it OHHHHHHHHHHHKKKKKKKKKK

This country's best days are ahead of it, mark my words. There will probably be more hiccups as inflation gets going, but that will also alleviate the national debt. But when everyone decides its time to go back to work, we will get out of this thing.

As for Greece, they are the obviously the result of what happens in all liberal countries: they **** off and don't produce anything, then beg (or threaten) their neighbors for a handout.

 

[JustLurk]

SLIGHTLY negative impact? Try 10% drop overnight, and further in the long term. The banks around the world are already slidding because of the probability of a Greek default.
Its a catch 22 situation, because if Greece decides to implement the emasures necessary to prevent a default, the country will go into a civil war.

I was being sarcastic. It is my opinion that this could end the euro.

At rest: argue about capitalism in America? I wasn't aware that mass bailouts was part of a free market economy. Where is this capitalism you speak of?

 

[synergy1]

I sure hope you're right, but I don't have a lot of hope. I feel like this country is on its last legs economically.

The united states is estimated to have the energy equivalent of shale gas (Methane) to oil in Saudi Arabia. There is likely more. We are creating jobs in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Texas to the tune of 30,000 + positions. We also have access to domestic petroleum products. Some estimate we can survive on what we have for hundreds of years. Even if our monetary system sucks ( which it does), the united states has enough energy for a long time. That counts for everything. It doesn't matter what happens to our stupid paper system, as long as we can keep the lights on, keep the planes in the air, we aren't going anywhere.

 

[Gaucho]

I sure hope you're right, but I don't have a lot of hope. I feel like this country is on its last legs economically.

His not right, he is a 'know all' on markets and trading, yet knows very little.

On the Greek situation, here is the basics, with the vote of confidence already over now and passed.

Tomorrow we have the Greek vote of confidence and as such, this is a potential risk for EUR shorts tomorrow evening (10pm London time).

Indeed, despite the Greek’s government reshuffle PM George Papandreou is considering a referendum on his consolidation course. The Greek press suggested that the promise of a referendum was required getting the package through Parliament on Tuesday. The latest opinion poll showed that 47% of the Greek electorate oppose the consolidation package, while 35% approve the policy of the Greek government. Should Greece head towards a referendum in autumn, as currently considered by the Greek PM, uncertainty will remain high.

EU FinMins are likely to indicate that a new 3-year financial rescue programme will be provided to Greece once the details of the Private Sector Involvement (PSI) are finalised in July (as did Germany and France did Friday). As such, PSI is now becoming the major market focus of the bailout (aside from the Greek political situation above). This ‘PSI’ is what will register as a ‘default’ (even if it is just pushing out maturities, it will still be classified as a default, as well warned by the rating agencies) and is expected given CDS are pricing in nearly 90% chance of default. Further information on specific details of what the PSI will involve is what will likely move markets from here (the more ‘involuntary’ will obviously pressure ‘risk’ broadly and the EUR specifically).

ON PRIVATE SECTOR INVOLVEMENT IN GREEK BAILOUT from the words of the FinMins:
"We have to see if this participation is done in an autonomous way by the banks or if national authorities carry out some discussions.
"If we say that this participation is voluntary, then we can't expect that 100 percent (of the banks) will accept ... But there should be a number big enough."

Longer-term hurdles:

Core-peripheral spread widening forces: The other factor potentially working against the EUR is that now is the first time private investors are being involved in the restructuring. The principle that there should be no private capital risk as long as the EFSF is in place until mid 2013 no longer holds. Although the private sector should only voluntarily (Juncker said on Sunday that there will be incentives) contribute to the Greek package it should be now clear to private investors that the bill of unsustainable EMU sovereign debt will not only be paid by core-EMU tax payers, the ECB and the IMF, but as well by private investors in peripheral debt (Chinese support to potentially cease for peripheral bonds; last month TICS data I believe showed a Chinese increase in USTs held for the first time in many months).
Risks to EUR shorts on this front: An increase in EU issued bonds with 10bil supply easily soaked up recently.

German politics - The opposition said that the government would have to organise the ‘chancellor majority’ getting the Greek package through Parliament. There are an increasing number of MP’s belonging to government supporting parties openly opposing the French-German agreement. Deputy opposition leader Oppermann from the SPD said that the government failing organising its own majority would lead to new General elections this autumn. The fact the SPD are now going on a confrontational course, even risking the Greek package failing in Parliament is significant given the SPD has been the most pro European party in Germany. The German Parliament is not expected to vote on the Greek package before September keeping uncertainty in place over the summer months.

 

[Julius_Seizeher]

You are so full of sh!t.

Here is why Greece is failing: they try to consume without producing.

But no man and no nation can consume that which they have not produced.

So now they are the first socialized european country to go begging for handouts. You can build a mountain of academic jargon to rationalize anything, but it doesn't change reality: you cannot consume that which has not been produced. A man and a nation can survive in only one of two ways: by means of its own independent effort or as a parasite fed by the effort of others.

Food does not fall into your mouth from clouds, gasoline does not flow in rivers to your backyard, and nuclear reactors do not grow like mushrooms in the forest. Production comes before distribution-or there is nothing to distribute.

 

[CLOONEY]

You are so full of sh!t.

Here is why Greece is failing: they try to consume without producing.

But no man and no nation can consume that which they have not produced.

So now they are the first socialized european country to go begging for handouts. You can build a mountain of academic jargon to rationalize anything, but it doesn't change reality: you cannot consume that which has not been produced. A man and a nation can survive in only one of two ways: by means of its own independent effort or as a parasite fed by the effort of others.

Food does not fall into your mouth from clouds, gasoline does not flow in rivers to your backyard, and nuclear reactors do not grow like mushrooms in the forest. Production comes before distribution-or there is nothing to distribute.

Hmmmmmmmmmm, so the US is in for a boom period, despite being the largest energy consumer bar none, with trillions of dollars of debt, fiscal contraction to come and monetary expansion already as far as it can go, yet peripheral Europe is in trouble?

The problem with Greece is the monetary and fiscal make-up of the EU, but no doubt the structural economic deficits which face Greece, also face the US. Mark my words, in the coming 2 years, you will see a US municipal bond yield blowout and funding crisis akin to that of peripheral European sovereign states.

I hope you understand economics, when you debate it, much as one should understand how to trade, before giving out advice.

Some wisdom for the arrogant and naive, there is a stage of life whereby you should be asking questions, learning, developing. You should be in this stage and should not be imparting advice in areas of which you clearly are no expert.

 

[joverby]

Sounds like the United States.

Nope, we still make weapons for people to buy.

 

[Gaucho]

What are you talking about?

CDS market are pricing in a high percentage of default. But this 'default' will only be technical in nature to ensure those who hold CDS are paid and hedging cover in such markets remain relevent.

This 'default' only being technical in nature, means whilst Moodys and the rating agencies will classify it as a default, it will only be an extension of maturities. I.e. the private sector will extend loans to Greece. It is already all factored in, no harm done.

The immediate harm is if the Greek government don't pass the austerity package this week, meanting the default won't be technical in nature, it will be full blown (yet no doubt short-term measures to fund the shortfall in Greek government liquidity will be bought forward by the EU and IMF anyways).

 

[Alle_Gory]

Here is why Greece is failing: they try to consume without producing.

You mean like the United States. Most of the production is being outsourced. What remains is corn and some limited agriculture, movies and weapons.

Everything else is shuffling paper.

 

[Gaucho]

Low and behold, the markets push the authorities to the edge of the precipice and the authorities act to pull markets back.

Standard Soros Global Macro thesis.

 

[StevieD]

What are you talking about?

CDS market are pricing in a high percentage of default. But this 'default' will only be technical in nature to ensure those who hold CDS are paid and hedging cover in such markets remain relevent.

This 'default' only being technical in nature, means whilst Moodys and the rating agencies will classify it as a default, it will only be an extension of maturities. I.e. the private sector will extend loans to Greece. It is already all factored in, no harm done.

The immediate harm is if the Greek government don't pass the austerity package this week, meanting the default won't be technical in nature, it will be full blown (yet no doubt short-term measures to fund the shortfall in Greek government liquidity will be bought forward by the EU and IMF anyways).

What do you think of Mayweather vs Ortiz?

 

[DJ Logic]

Yep, streets are on fire and civilians are pretty much at war with police at this point. What's even more sobering is that Greece is just a scaled down preview of what we can expect from America in the near future.

- We are very close to defaulting on our debt (Obama just wants to raise the ceiling)
- Thanks to record fires and floods eliminating millions of acres you can count serious food price surges
- Officials are so desperate for revenue, they want to not only raise taxes but invent new ones (Well Being Tax, Gold Exchange Tax, etc)
- We are not changing any of the fundamental policies that got us in this mess (or really punishing the people responsible, heck they make off with even more money now)
- Record numbers of Americans have simply stopped paying loans/mortgages
- Dollar is at an all-time low thanks to hyper-inflation (gold prices reflect this: http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_all_data_o_usd.png)

Once the **** truly hits the fan we are going to have a LOT of well-armed, hungry and angry civilians who have nothing to lose. That's a very dangerous recipe right there.

God Stress America

 

[Gaucho]

What do you think of Mayweather vs Ortiz?

I actually think Mayweather is looking at this as a tune-up and is serious finally about making the Pac fight. Hopefully Mayweather doesn't look rusty and the fight is made, because other than an old, rusty Mayweather, Ortiz doesn't have a chance.

What are you thinking?

 

[Poonani Maker]

"Resist like water." - Chinese Proverb

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/8392345/how_does_greece_actually_default_what.html?cat=3

 

[DanelMadr]

I've read in The Economist, that letting Greece go down would be more expensive than bailout.

But the question is what is the long term price.

German and French banks would need the bailout if G. bankrupts. Dexia went down last week.

Greece is the most "left" country in EU and always was...big communist party right after WW2. Spain is also very to the left but at least they have big economy. Italy even bigger. They supposedly just miss liquidity.

All EU is sorta socialistic. With horror we(people of the right) watched US being more EU like over years but you still can't compare. There was some hope and still is in EU becoming federal gov. and therefore diminishing the socialistic/populism politics of national govs. However EU "gov" now is even worse -subsidizing farmers, gender projects, environmental agenda etc.

Germans are becoming crazy: ban on nuclear power, guns etc.
French were always the socialists acting like superpower.
UK is standing aside.
Scandinavia is on a way to maternal communism.
Southern Europe with 'manana' attitude.
Eastern Europe is struggling, still overwhelmed by it's commie heritage - corruption, inefficiency, dishonesty and 'everything should be free and state controlled' mentality. State is omnipotent and politicians are uneducated if you don't count marxism-leninism. It will take 2 generations to improve.

US has the technology and resources. Europe somewhat of technology, no resources. China will loose it's status once the wage there goes up. And they will burn, bc when you want prosperity you need freedom. Russia is depending on gas and oil is and on it's way to putinocracy. Russian people are beyond hope to assert themselves as individuals...always pawns in Tzar's hands.

Greece will fall evntually, maybe not all the way but it will, bc politicians/people (not the great ones) act out of necessity and not out of future need. They will flick it to the last possible moment.

My worry is, this flicking gives wind to demagogues of all kinds...nazis, commies, religious, environmental commies.
Russia will take a byte out of wounded Europe and China will colonize far east and even Africa (with US saving every cent on domestic welfare)....they will bleed on it literally and financially and won't succeed but it will take the world some steps back again. Or not.