Going to be another brutal summer for much of the US it appears...

BaronOfHair

Master Don Juan
Joined
Feb 14, 2024
Messages
1,422
Reaction score
549
Age
35
Last edited by a moderator:

HaleyBaron

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 25, 2021
Messages
2,377
Reaction score
2,046
Enjoying the heat and sun right now. It's 100F but next to the pool feeling nice.
 

BackInTheGame78

Moderator
Joined
Sep 10, 2014
Messages
13,701
Reaction score
14,575
Cont'

There’s essentially no agreement on what a warming climate will do to smaller hurricanes in the Category 1 or 2 range, Emanuel said. Historically, these less intense storms form far more often than major storms, and they dominate the raw numbers of hurricanes that form each year (although major hurricanes still cause by far the most damage). But “we just don’t know if the number of those smaller storms will be more or fewer or stay the same.”


Climatologists also don’t know what will happen to the diameter of hurricanes. The size of hurricanes is an overlooked but important aspect of a storm’s danger, Emanuel said. For instance, Hurricane Ian made landfall in almost the same place that Hurricane Charley did in 2004, but Ian is a much wider—and thus a much more destructive—storm. Charley, in fact, could almost fit entirely within Ian’s eye. Idealized computer models show that climate change will likely make these monster storms more common, Emanuel said, but so far “nobody wants to carry that over to the real world,” which is far more complex than a simulation.


So what can we say about climate change’s effect on Ian? Stepping back, it seems safe to say that it showed some symptoms of climate change. It rapidly intensified. It dumped huge amounts of rain. You could even argue that it showed evidence of that “higher speed limit.” But asking questions beyond that is folly, Emanuel said.

“I don’t like the question ‘How did climate change affect this storm?’” he told me. “If you had a grandparent who died of lung cancer and who smoked two packs a day, you wouldn’t ask, ‘How much did smoking contribute to his lung cancer?’ Because sometimes people get lung cancer without smoking at all. You just can’t answer that question.”

So we must wonder: Is our present day hysteria over Beryl just a re-iteration of the one we indulged in over Ian?
Not when it's such an outlier that it basically broke every record in the book for any early season hurricane to go along with the warmest water temperatures ever recorded at this time of year.

Those are not a coincidence btw.
 

Pierce Manhammer

Moderator
Joined
Jun 2, 2021
Messages
5,057
Reaction score
6,014
Location
PRC
Not when it's such an outlier that it basically broke every record in the book for any early season hurricane to go along with the warmest water temperatures ever recorded at this time of year.

Those are not a coincidence btw.
What I’ve understood is that it started as a tropical depression and because it hit the previously unprecedented warm waters in the Caribbean it gained strength to become a cat 4-5. This will happen to the smaller hurricanes as well.

I was on ground zero for David back in the day and countless smaller ones, I don’t think many people can fathom the destructive power of a hurricane.

Buckle up kids. It’s going to get interesting.
 

BackInTheGame78

Moderator
Joined
Sep 10, 2014
Messages
13,701
Reaction score
14,575
What I’ve understood is that it started as a tropical depression and because it hit the previously unprecedented warm waters in the Caribbean it gained strength to become a cat 4-5. This will happen to the smaller hurricanes as well.

I was on ground zero for David back in the day and countless smaller ones, I don’t think many people can fathom the destructive power of a hurricane.

Buckle up kids. It’s going to get interesting.
It went from tropical depression to Cat 4 hurricane in under 48 hours which is absolutely unprecedented not only for this time of year but also that it happened so far East as well where it's usually harder for the storms to do that.
 

BaronOfHair

Master Don Juan
Joined
Feb 14, 2024
Messages
1,422
Reaction score
549
Age
35
Not when it's such an outlier that it basically broke every record in the book for any early season hurricane to go along with the warmest water temperatures ever recorded at this time of year.

Those are not a coincidence btw.
As the article points out: Climate change likely did play some role in Beryl's genesis and evolution... How much is an open and likely unanswerable question though. In any event, the answer to the question "What do we do about all of this?" remains constant: Invest in R&D, so that we can find alternatives to fossil fuels
 

BaronOfHair

Master Don Juan
Joined
Feb 14, 2024
Messages
1,422
Reaction score
549
Age
35
Violence and war isn't an ailment, unfortunately it is who we are as humans dating back to our earliest days....

People think one day war will just end. It won't, it's who we are as a species, it literally defines us. It's in our DNA.
I'm not among the small sliver of our species who believes such things. Going back to the work of Julian Simon https://www.wired.com/1997/02/the-doomslayer-2/ and many others since: More nations becoming industrialized, then Post-Industrial, and becoming rich inevitably translates to nations that are less violent(especially internally), and who have the luxury of fretting over environmental stewardship

THAT'S the way out of all this
 

Scaramouche

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Messages
3,956
Reaction score
1,103
Age
80
Location
Australia
As the article points out: Climate change likely did play some role in Beryl's genesis and evolution... How much is an open and likely unanswerable question though. In any event, the answer to the question "What do we do about all of this?" remains constant: Invest in R&D, so that we can find alternatives to fossil fuels
Well Baron,the unprecedented highs over Tasmania are creating correspondingly rare cold weather down here...Am I tearing my hair out shouting from my bedroom window "The Ice age is upon us,you're all doomed"....No...It's swings and roundabouts,our incredibly damaging remedial measures thus far have achieved Very little indeed except existential issues versus our very real Enemies China,Russia and Iran....As one door closes another opens,much of Central Australia is a huge Flower Garden at the moment,millions of Birds are breeding on Ephemeral Lakes that are usually bone dry and salt crusted.
 

BackInTheGame78

Moderator
Joined
Sep 10, 2014
Messages
13,701
Reaction score
14,575
As the article points out: Climate change likely did play some role in Beryl's genesis and evolution... How much is an open and likely unanswerable question though. In any event, the answer to the question "What do we do about all of this?" remains constant: Invest in R&D, so that we can find alternatives to fossil fuels
Gee...we never had anything anywhere close to this before and also have the warmest water temps ever. I wonder how much that has to do with it?

Sometimes the easiest explanation is the right one.
 

BackInTheGame78

Moderator
Joined
Sep 10, 2014
Messages
13,701
Reaction score
14,575
Well Baron,the unprecedented highs over Tasmania are creating correspondingly rare cold weather down here...Am I tearing my hair out shouting from my bedroom window "The Ice age is upon us,you're all doomed"....No...It's swings and roundabouts,our incredibly damaging remedial measures thus far have achieved Very little indeed except existential issues versus our very real Enemies China,Russia and Iran....As one door closes another opens,much of Central Australia is a huge Flower Garden at the moment,millions of Birds are breeding on Ephemeral Lakes that are usually bone dry and salt crusted.
And that's the part people can't seem to comprehend. That because one small area of the world is not record heat or super hot, that it "can't be happening".

In fact, ther ARE places that are expected to get cooler from global warming due to changes in weather patterns, ocean currents etc.

But the overall pattern across the entire globe as a whole is a massive uptrend in temperature.
 

Scaramouche

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Messages
3,956
Reaction score
1,103
Age
80
Location
Australia
Hi Back in the Game,
And the parts you can't comprehend are that global warming doesn't matter....We produce more food with every passing year....Plants love warmth and thrive on Carbon....we produce so much food now,that one third is wasted...Holland a tiny little country a bit larger than Maryland is so productive that it is the second largest exporter of food in the World,their country gets larger because they reclaim land from the Sea....Sea levels at Fort Denison Sydney have risen eight and three quarters of an inch since 1880 hardly epocalyptic is it?....You still haven't answered my question:After crippling the manufacturing industries of the Western World with energy restrictions,what have we achieved?please do tell us.
 

BackInTheGame78

Moderator
Joined
Sep 10, 2014
Messages
13,701
Reaction score
14,575
Hi Back in the Game,
And the parts you can't comprehend are that global warming doesn't matter....We produce more food with every passing year....Plants love warmth and thrive on Carbon....we produce so much food now,that one third is wasted...Holland a tiny little country a bit larger than Maryland is so productive that it is the second largest exporter of food in the World,their country gets larger because they reclaim land from the Sea....Sea levels at Fort Denison Sydney have risen eight and three quarters of an inch since 1880 hardly epocalyptic is it?....You still haven't answered my question:After crippling the manufacturing industries of the Western World with energy restrictions,what have we achieved?please do tell us.
We have prevented a much worse scenario that we will have to come to grips with in about 20-30 years if we don't come up with technology to prevent it or convince other countries who are the major problems to change their ways. Basically we have bought time.

Food production is the least of the worries.

Honestly, with the US's diversity, size and resources we could probably export enough food for the entire world if we wanted to really expend the resources to do it.

There is almost nothing the US cannot grow in one climate or another that they have.
 

Scaramouche

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Messages
3,956
Reaction score
1,103
Age
80
Location
Australia
Hi Back In the Game,
You have not produced one scintilla of evidence...."Convincing other countries to change their ways"....by removing tariffs on Chinese Goods?they are not improving their ways 60+new coal fired power houses this year alone....One decent volcanic eruption and all you have achieved will go up in smoke anyway....
You might get a warm fuzzy glow reflecting on how virtuous you are,but you are condemning our young people to poverty and perhaps servitude....What we have and our incredible prosperity comes from the Petro Chemical Industry,elsewise my Sons would be toiling at the Plow behind a Horse like their Grandfather,harvesting Wheat and Straw with a Scythe...You are tilting at Windmills.
 
Last edited:

BackInTheGame78

Moderator
Joined
Sep 10, 2014
Messages
13,701
Reaction score
14,575
Hi Back In the Game,
You have not produced one scintilla of evidence...."Convincing other countries to change their ways"....by removing tariffs on Chinese Goods?they are not improving their ways 60+new coal fired power houses this year alone....One decent volcanic eruption and all you have achieved will go up in smoke anyway....
You might get a warm fuzzy glow reflecting on how virtuous you are,but you are condemning our young people to poverty and perhaps servitude....What we have and our incredible prosperity comes from the Petro Chemical Industry,elsewise my Sons would be toiling at the Plow behind a Horse like their Grandfather,harvesting Wheat and Straw with a Scythe...You are tilting at Windmills.
No, all that has achieved is slowing down progress on cleaner, more sustainable energy sources as these companies buy and bury any patents that they can that will challenge their supremacy or potential competition to their industries and spend millions and millions of dollars to lobby Congress and governments to get favorable laws for them and help make it harder for competition against them.

Ever hear of Nikolai Tesla? If they wouldn't have pulled his backing the whole would have free energy pulled from the atmosphere. His plan was provide free electricity to the world thru the air(aether) and he nearly finished his project at Wardenclyffe when JP Morgan who was his financial backer leaned of his plan and pulled his financing.

Why? Because there was no way to charge for it and they weren't about to give it away for free.

Funny he transmitted electricity wirelessly out in Colorado for over dozens of miles and scientists these days were ecstatic when they figure out how to do it over 6 or 7 feet and still have never figure out how to replace what Tesla did.

Human greed and desire for control, power and money is at the root of all of the major blockers to more efficient energy sources that could have been in use for decades or more by this point.

You honestly think that with all the technological innovations that have been created over the last 100+ years, they haven't been able to come up with much of an improvement on the internal combustion engine which remains largely unchanged?

They come out with huge technology advancements in electronics and computing and cell phones every year or two but nobody has figured out any major improvements to the combustion engine in 100 years?

And guess who is leading oil producer in the world? The US... by almost double Saudi Arabia who is 2nd...wonder why there hasn't been anywhere near as much progress here as there should have been. Hmm...doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out.

Comical bro...go back to peddling your nonsense to someone dumb that doesn't know better.
 
Last edited:

BillyPilgrim

Master Don Juan
Joined
Apr 9, 2021
Messages
4,680
Reaction score
3,685
Hi Back In the Game,
You have not produced one scintilla of evidence...."Convincing other countries to change their ways"....by removing tariffs on Chinese Goods?they are not improving their ways 60+new coal fired power houses this year alone....One decent volcanic eruption and all you have achieved will go up in smoke anyway....
You might get a warm fuzzy glow reflecting on how virtuous you are,but you are condemning our young people to poverty and perhaps servitude....What we have and our incredible prosperity comes from the Petro Chemical Industry,elsewise my Sons would be toiling at the Plow behind a Horse like their Grandfather,harvesting Wheat and Straw with a Scythe...You are tilting at Windmills.
If it wasn't for the incredible prosperity afforded by the horse and plow, we would've continued to till the soil by hand. The idea, however is twofold - 1) improve upon existing processes, and 2) do so without completely upending everything at a breakneck pace. One would hope we could go back to doing #1 without #2.
 

Scaramouche

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Messages
3,956
Reaction score
1,103
Age
80
Location
Australia
Hi Back In The Game,
"Comical bro...go back to peddling your nonsense to someone dumb that doesn't know better."Well laugh and grow fat,dumb as I am you cannot answer my honest straight forward questions can you?
 

BackInTheGame78

Moderator
Joined
Sep 10, 2014
Messages
13,701
Reaction score
14,575
Hi Back In The Game,
"Comical bro...go back to peddling your nonsense to someone dumb that doesn't know better."Well laugh and grow fat,dumb as I am you cannot answer my honest straight forward questions can you?
I just did but you keep not comprehending, ignoring and glossing over it.

Perhaps I need to write it in Dutch since your ability to comprehend English seems sorely lacking.
 

BaronOfHair

Master Don Juan
Joined
Feb 14, 2024
Messages
1,422
Reaction score
549
Age
35
Gee...we never had anything anywhere close to this before and also have the warmest water temps ever. I wonder how much that has to do with it?
Let's not pretend bizarre weather aberrations are either rare or anything new https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index....c_hurricane_season&diffonly=true#Late_October

Did the unprecedented nature of the above events mean that we were on the brink of ecological catastrophe, or that the weather does weird things sometimes, the causes of which we still don't fully understand?

Again, no one's denying that climate change can and will have adverse side effects, and that it's wise for us to take action. Knee-jerk, panic-driven reactions such as Net Zero though are the equivalent of trying to prevent the emergence of another Grim Sleeper https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grim_Sleeper , by outlawing knifes, extension cords, and cameras
 
Last edited:

Scaramouche

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Messages
3,956
Reaction score
1,103
Age
80
Location
Australia
Hi Back in the Game,
At least when I fail to make my point I don't insult people,manners cost nothing!
 
Top