article: Why the S&P 500 is poised to rocket 100% in 5 years

taiyuu_otoko

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So long as the Fed keeps printing money, markets will keep going up.

But inflation might be greater than 100% in five years.
 

BackInTheGame78

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So long as the Fed keeps printing money, markets will keep going up.

But inflation might be greater than 100% in five years.
Inflation over 100% has an almost 0% chance of happening.

If they printed $3 trillion during the pandemic and it didn't even reach double digits, that is an absurd statement to make with no basis in reality.

Not the least of all because our M2 Money Supply is among the lowest in the entire world with only 16 countries having less overall M2 supply than the US does. The only one of those that has any size at all is Germany, the rest are all very small countries.

I mean, when the US is tied with Latvia for money supply I don't think we have to worry much. The UK has 145x the amount of money supply we have and they are barely in the top 50. So if any countries REALLY need to worry about inflation, it's those ones, not the US.

 
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taiyuu_otoko

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Inflation over 100% has an almost 0% chance of happening.

If they printed $3 trillion during the pandemic and it didn't even reach double digits, that is an absurd statement to make with no basis in reality.
100% increase over five years is not out of the question.

That's only 14.4% compounded over five years.

Absolutely not out of the question.
 

FlirtLife

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I mean, when the US is tied with Latvia for money supply I don't think we have to worry much.
You failed to notice Latvia is in millions, US in billions. The M2 money supply in the U.S. is a thousand times larger than Latvia's.
 

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100% increase over five years is not out of the question.

That's only 14.4% compounded over five years.

Absolutely not out of the question.
$100 in 2020 is worth $172 today.

If it has been 24 years and it still hasn't doubled yet then why would you think it's going to do it in 5 when the worst of the inflation is already over?

This isn't Turkey or Venezuela or Zimbabwe.

If that happens the global monetary system would crumble since so many are dependant on the US Dollar.
 

Bible_Belt

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The stock market always goes up long term, not sure why anyone would be surprised by this.
That's the stockbroker sales pitch, except without the word "always," which sounds too much like the forbidden word "guaranteed."

1968 to 1982, the S & P went nowhere, due to inflation and high interest rates.
 

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That's the stockbroker sales pitch, except without the word "always," which sounds too much like the forbidden word "guaranteed."

1968 to 1982, the S & P went nowhere, due to inflation and high interest rates.
That's not long term is it? I specifically said long term. That's a year or two.

If that wasn't the case there would be no reason to put money in a 401K.

Show me a 20 year period where it was lower than it was when it started. Even a 10 year period. Probably doesn't exist except maybe the great depression era.
 

Bible_Belt

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That's not long term is it? I specifically said long term. That's a year or two.

If that wasn't the case there would be no reason to put money in a 401K.

Show me a 20 year period where it was lower than it was when it started. Even a 10 year period. Probably doesn't exist except maybe the great depression era.
Swing and a miss. Try again :)
 

FlirtLife

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In more detail:

So long as the Fed keeps printing money, markets will keep going up.
Money printing did not prevent the 2022 stock market crash.

But inflation might be greater than 100% in five years.
100% increase over five years is not out of the question.
Inflation of 100% means the cost of goods doubles every year. $20 burger becomes $40 the next year, then $80 the year after that. More likely, you don't understand inflation and are misusing the word.

That's only 14.4% compounded over five years.

Absolutely not out of the question.
You specified a fraction of a percent and got the math wrong. 14.9% compounded is +100%, while your 14.4% is only +96%.

Your belief that inflation is "compounded" is also wrong. Inflation of 15% a year would more than double prices in five years. Prices, not inflation.
 

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Swing and a miss. Try again :)
From what I see it happened 3 times.

Great depression, 1970s stagflation era and the 99-2000 dot com bubble which was followed by the housing crisis in 2007-2008.

Out of every 10 year rolling period the average is it happens 5-10% of the time.

I'll take going up 90-95% of the time especially because it typically goes up for more than it goes down.

The long term trend is unquestionably upwards. The average return is 8-12% per year and that factors in years when you have losses.
 

jaygreenb

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There is absolutely a correlation between monetary expansion and the percentage gains in the stock market. Besides some tech and a few outliers most stocks have been flat the last decade plus when factoring that in. Until the last few years most inflation has just been reflected in asset prices but it is now starting to show up in a big way in commodities and consumables. CPI calculations are also a joke that are constantly changed to make it seem better than it is. If we used the same metrics as we had in decades prior, it would be much higher

 

BackInTheGame78

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There is absolutely a correlation between monetary expansion and the percentage gains in the stock market. Besides some tech and a few outliers most stocks have been flat the last decade plus when factoring that in. Until the last few years most inflation has just been reflected in asset prices but it is now starting to show up in a big way in commodities and consumables. CPI calculations are also a joke that are constantly changed to make it seem better than it is. If we used the same metrics as we had in decades prior, it would be much higher

Fair point...I mean $1 today was worth $1.72 in 2000 and $3.49 in 1980...

It's crazy how money has gotten devalued so much over that amount of time.
 

jaygreenb

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Fair point...I mean $1 today was worth $1.72 in 2000 and $3.49 in 1980...

It's crazy how money has gotten devalued so much over that amount of time.
Not one for one, but if we used the same metrics we did in 1980 inflation last year would of been closer to 14 %. Also the $1.72 in 2000 and $3.49 in 1980 is not even close to reality if we are talking about housing, stocks, healthcare, education and food. Not factoring those into the real costs of daily living is a joke.


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