I did not realize you had that much experience, usually just give my disclaimer to new people coming in but most usually have to learn the hard way. Easy to feel like a genius when the price action is supporting your assumptions. I have made a lot of money with some alts too, also lost a lot on others. At the time in 17/18, I made far more money than I ever had with ICO's, like most though I saw it all dwindle away. It was a pretty challenging period to go through but learned so many lessons that became invaluable later. Best of luck!
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Where are the bitcoin lovers now?
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sangheilios
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@Solomon and @jaygreenb
Honestly, those that buy in after the market has tanked are those that do well if they can hold for at least a couple years and just let it sit. Assuming they weren't buying some absolute trash, just about any and everything will pump hard during a bull market.
The thing is, the vast majority of retail investors have literally no clue what they are doing AND also tend to buy in at the worst time periods.
I'll use the last couple cycles as an example.
In late 2017 was when BTC/crypto was starting to get a lot of media attention, prior to this it was mostly unheard of by the general public. A lot of people were probably buying in towards the end of that year or perhaps in the early months of 2018. They literally could have been buying BTC when it was between 14-20k for instance, for alts it would have been even crazier. By the summer of 2018 BTC had tanked below 6k and ultimately to 3k by the end of the year. I guarantee the overwhelming majority of retail investors in this scenario would have capitulated at some point at a loss and probably completely wrote off the market. Imagine if they had bought some speculative alt coin, it would have been even crazier lol.
We saw the same thing in late 2020/early 2021. When BTC first hit 20k towards the end of 2020 it started getting a ton of attention on the mainstream media. Within a couple months of 2021 it was trading at 40k and by late April/early May the market had gone wild. Vast majority of retail investors weren't buying in from late 2018 through the fall of 2020, they didn't enter in until the market was already pumping hard. They were buying BTC at 40k for instance, maybe they saw some profit but held and then ultimately saw the market tank spring of 2022. They very likely would have capitulated when it dropped to 20k that summer and moved on from the market.
Honestly, those that buy in after the market has tanked are those that do well if they can hold for at least a couple years and just let it sit. Assuming they weren't buying some absolute trash, just about any and everything will pump hard during a bull market.
The thing is, the vast majority of retail investors have literally no clue what they are doing AND also tend to buy in at the worst time periods.
I'll use the last couple cycles as an example.
In late 2017 was when BTC/crypto was starting to get a lot of media attention, prior to this it was mostly unheard of by the general public. A lot of people were probably buying in towards the end of that year or perhaps in the early months of 2018. They literally could have been buying BTC when it was between 14-20k for instance, for alts it would have been even crazier. By the summer of 2018 BTC had tanked below 6k and ultimately to 3k by the end of the year. I guarantee the overwhelming majority of retail investors in this scenario would have capitulated at some point at a loss and probably completely wrote off the market. Imagine if they had bought some speculative alt coin, it would have been even crazier lol.
We saw the same thing in late 2020/early 2021. When BTC first hit 20k towards the end of 2020 it started getting a ton of attention on the mainstream media. Within a couple months of 2021 it was trading at 40k and by late April/early May the market had gone wild. Vast majority of retail investors weren't buying in from late 2018 through the fall of 2020, they didn't enter in until the market was already pumping hard. They were buying BTC at 40k for instance, maybe they saw some profit but held and then ultimately saw the market tank spring of 2022. They very likely would have capitulated when it dropped to 20k that summer and moved on from the market.
The parabolic price action is what usually draws people in, this is also the worst time to buy lol The vast majority has their first experience during a bull market then like you said, get dumped on their heads. Even Eth went down around 95% I believe from the 2017/18 peak. Most coins get one cycle then fade off into obscurity only to be replaced by some new hype dog sh*t next time. I think all but a couple coins even hit a new high when priced in BTC. I have seen so many people at this point completely fumble the opportunity by going all alts, thinking they were geniuses then losing everything. If they would have taken a more reasonable approach and been patient, they would have changed the entire financial trajectory of their lives. It is a big reason I constantly beat the bitcoin drum, most people just do not have the aptitude, experience or time to play with alts and win. Society has become so delusional where they think a low risk 5-10x possibly much more over the net 10yrs is not good enough.
sangheilios
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I definitely agree with this. Most people just have no real idea as to when to enter into the market. Let's use the more recent years as an example. They probably started buying in 2021 when it was already pumping and held through the year thinking they would make easy returns. Instead, they got caught holding the bags in 2022 and at some point sold at a loss. The market finally bottoms out end of 2022, but these same people have long left the space and will ignore it until maybe more recently or perhaps not until the real bull market starts. Those that bought alts are basically experiencing a far greater degree of volatility than you would with just BTC, but even BTC investors late to the party would still be in this same place.
It's not a market that the average person can do well in. It also doesn't help when crypto youtubers are always shilling these projects that are just coming on the space that aren't even in the top 30 lol. People are better off sticking with BTC and the alts that have long been in the top 10-15. Besides BTC, the ones that come to mind are things like ETH, ADA, XRP, Link, etc.
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Solomon
Master Don Juan
Personally, I wouldn't hold Solana after it hits its previous ATH or $300 per coin, The blockchain crashed today, imagine that happening at the top of a bull run. No sir. I hold a little bit of Solana and a couple of memes on the solana chain no I'm not a hater. Solana has been a money maker the last 4 months. I like the ecosystem and love solflare but I do not care for the Blockchain outage lol
I think people are underestimating this bullrun I'm currently working with a buddy of mine to get an AI based integrated customized trading bot for the bullrun.
sangheilios
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You could have bought Solana back in the latter part of 2022 at around $10. I personally never bought any SOL, but there is tremendous upside to be made if you buy an alt coin that has crashed by that much by that period in the bear market. People get wrecked by alts either by buying them at some point during the bull market OR by buying at an early stage in the bear market when there is still a lot more room to go to the downside. This is a pattern you would have seen in 2018, as well as 2022 and I will imagine something similar will play out after the next bull market. BTC is the only thing you should be holding long term, everything else should be to flip for profit.
@Apone @jaygreenb @Solomon We are in the phase of the market right now where you could make tremendous gains with alts in a relatively short period of time, as in less than 2 years. The halving is in a little over 2 months from now, the FED has been pausing rate hikes and in the not too distant future it is very likely they will cut rates, increase money supply, etc. The presidential election is also coming up, which puts pressure on the FED to get the economy going for political reasons. You could literally blind fold yourself, spin around a few times and throw a dart and just about anything you land on could see gains. With that said, don't blow this opportunity by buying junk, which is what the majority of the crypto market is.
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The real parabolic gains seem to come from new coins getting their first cycle, something VC back with some of the who's who and ride whatever the new hype narrative is probably a safer play. Ex. defi, meme, NFT's, AI, gaming, eth killers in the past. If you know of any please share, I am open to any new insights. A substack I follow that has been pretty on point seems to think Bitcoin L2's could be a strong narrative to ride. They mentioned B2 Buzz, I know literally nothing about it but might grab some for a potential lottery ticket.
For the new guys, just understand this is a trade not a long term hold. If you miss the pump you most likely will round trip it and walk away with nothing.
Solomon
Master Don Juan
Check out SHX still pretty early and it's been a solid gainer, with a usecase for remittance and have a legit partnership with IBM
Thanks!
The only true crypto is Bitcoin. Its the only decentralized one there is. No need for blockchain for any other use case. Its all just fake.
That said you can make a lot of of money with alt coins. I had over 800k Matic (Polygon) but sold for a few cents a piece. Biggest financial regret i have.
That said you can make a lot of of money with alt coins. I had over 800k Matic (Polygon) but sold for a few cents a piece. Biggest financial regret i have.
Brutal, had something similar happen to me my first cycle in 20I7 but with neo, walton and a few others. It is something everyone almost everyone goes through. Agree with your sentiment, most of this stuff is at best a trade.
Fortune_favors_the_bold
Master Don Juan
sangheilios
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I remember that particular poster, he's a jackass I had and still have on my ignore list.
The 2018 crypto bear market was brutal but those that stuck around did incredibly well in 2021. My personal opinion, the 2017 bull run was when the public really started becoming aware of the crypto market. The 2021 crypto market though was when we really started to see much more actual interest in the market itself.
2022 also had a brutal bear market with a ton of crazy events. It started with the Terra Luna crash in April and then 3 arrows capital. Then that summer the crypto lending space fell apart (Celisus, Voyager, BlockFi, etc.). The final capitulation occured after the collapse of FTX in Novemeber of that year, which resulted in BTC plummeting to 16k.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has actually been doing incredibly well for about a year now. That hard crash we had to 16k winter of '22/'23 quickly rebounded from there and we've been steadily climbing higher and higher since then. This ETF stuff with BTC lately is huge and with the massive amount of institutional investment from Blackrock, Fidelity and others it's going to be wild. Combine this with the BTC halving coming up in 2 months and it's not going to be long before we really start seeing things heat up.
Can confirm, 2018/19 was one of the more challenging periods in my life, made the couple years that followed that much sweeter. Considering all the catastrophic events that happened last cycle it really showed just how resilient and battle tested the network is. I am a super long term bull but even I was surprised how well everything bounced back
sangheilios
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Honestly, I think the previous bear/accumulation phase of 2018-2020 was way more volatile and crazy than what we've seen from 2022 and up until now.
2018 had a brutal bear market and bottomed out for a few months into the winter of '18/'19. However, it then rallied hard into the summer of 2019, where we saw BTC go from 3kish to 14k, only to then tank by the end of the year to 7k. Early 2020 it started running to 10k, but in mid March the COVID lockdowns crashed the entire market and we saw BTC back to 3k lol. However, from there it slowly started grinding up through the rest of 2020. If COVID had not happened I don't think we would have saw that flash crash.
In contrast, this market has been relatively tame. Yes, we crashed end of 2022 but since then it's been slowly and steadily climbing since with no massive corrections. To me, I see this as a sign that the asset class has greatly matured, as a larger market cap means less volatility.
Just the amount of new capital able to access now through the ETF changes a lot of dynamics, read somewhere blackrock alone is buying around 10x the daily new supply. Those new participants going to make things interesting for sure, can only imagine if BTC becomes a standard percentage allocation across most managers.
Only thing on my radar a little concerning short term is bezos, gates and I believe musk just started dumping a ton of stock. Might be some previous cycles PTSD but have a feeling we get some gut wrenching drop sometime this year besides the normal pullbacks. Anyway, future is bright and feel very fortunate I got involved when I did. Hoping we all get to jump a few economic levels these next few years
Murk
Master Don Juan
All the ETF's own 3-6% of BTC and that's only going up. They've only been in play a few months. It's not really going to be decentralised any more.
Strongly disagree. Just because ETF's or funds hold BTC it does not change the decentralized properties of the network or the capabilities on an individual level. The nature of a decentralized network is that anyone can participate wether you like them or not. If you had control of that, the network would not be decentralized. There may be concentrations in certain holders but that it pretty irrelevant on an individual level and does not mean it is no longer decentralized.
Murk
Master Don Juan
When the markets crash and BlackRock inevitably hold 98% of global supply, it's not decentralised as intended. I shouldn't have to explain the WHY of this to you.