Your chances of exposure to Herpes

[Super_geek]

25% of women have Herpes:

http://www.globalherbalsupplies.com/herpes/stats.html

So given this information and using probability theory, the following calculations can be made:

-if you have had sex with 1 woman so far, then theres a 25% chance you have been exposed to herpes.

-if you have had sex with 2 women so far, then theres a 43.75% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 43.75% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 3 women so far, then theres a 57.82% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 57.82% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 4 women so far, then theres a 68.36% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 68.36% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 5 women so far, then theres a 76.27% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 76.27% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 6 women so far, then theres a 82.21% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 82.21% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 7 women so far, then theres a 86.66% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 86.66% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 8 women so far, then theres a 90% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 90% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 9 women so far, then theres a 92.5% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 92.5% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 10 women so far, then theres a 94.37% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 94.37% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 11 women so far, then theres a 95.78% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 95.78% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 12 women so far, then theres a 96.84% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 96.84% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 13 women so far, then theres a 97.63% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 97.63% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 14 women so far, then theres a 98.22% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 98.22% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 15 women so far, then theres a 98.67% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 98.67% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

-if you have had sex with 16 women so far, then theres a 99% chance you have been exposed to herpes. A 99% chance atleast 1 woman youve had sex with had Herpes.

Those who have had sex with 4 or more women are at high risk. If I knew the transmission probability, I could calculate the actual chance that one would actually contract Herpes given the number of women he has been with...

 

[penkitten]

health and fitness

 

[diplomatic_lies]

If we shoot everyone diagnosed with herpes, wouldn't that reduce the risk of the disease spreading? Its logical.

 

[penkitten]

if we shoot everyone that doesn't have herpes, there would be less deaths. its logical too.
then no one would care, because everyone would have it.

 

[sparky0000]

pays to be the first in line if you know what i am talking about. condoms DO NOT prevent many std's. remember that. you dudes who are into older broads all have been exposed. so quit bragging about all the old ladies you are getting.

if you wanna read some spooky stuff you should read about hpv.

 

[Deep Dish]

If you consider oral herpes then the statistics jump to about 100% exposure rate by the time you kiss your fourth girl. 90% of people test positive, not merely exposed, by age 40 and 50% of sixteen year olds have it. The rub is oral herpes can become genital, genital herpes can become oral, virgins can have it, and you could theoretically give yourself genital herpes from having oral herpes.

There are many more more worrisome things to worry about in life. If given the choice, I'd much rather have the relatively benign nuisance of herpes than knock a girl up or buy her a house.

 

[Falcon]

I remember when there was a time when people would say it was not possible for oral herpes to transfer to genital herpes or the other way around. Now it is widely known to be possible. Was it because the virus recently mutated so it could or was it like that all along and they just didn't know?

 

[wayword]

if we shoot everyone that doesn't have herpes, there would be less deaths.

Not if you only count HSV-2 - there'd still be about 3/4 left.

The rub is oral herpes can become genital, genital herpes can become oral, virgins can have it, and you could theoretically give yourself genital herpes from having oral herpes.

Not exactly. HSV-1 is "oral" herpes and HSV-2 is "genital" herpes. You can get HSV-1 in your genitals and HSV-2 in your mouth...but that doesn't mean the viruses themselves mutated into the other - just infected another location.

Again fellas, watch out for the viruses, especially the 4 H's:
HPV
Herpes
Hepatitis-C
HIV

And also:
Molloscum

 

[diablo]

health and fitness

Yep, and not only that, but I've gone beyond the 99% probability mark and according to my most recent test do not have the levels necessary for giving a positive for herpes (though the number was closer than I'd like). This would imply that 16 different girls isn't really an indicator as to whether or not someone has herpes. I'd say the probabilities are mathematically probable but in real life aren't as high.

Anyway, moved to H&F.

 

[Throttle]

the math is wrong, because it assumes that herpes is randomly distributed across the general population of women. obviously that's not true. some women (sex workers) are at a much higher risk than other women (true virgins, for the most extreme example). so to hit the 99% probability mark you would need to have sex with fewer than the 16 prostitutes, but more than 16 virgins (of course, some virgins are still carriers congenitally, but are probably the lowest risk population -- until they start knocking boots, too).

 

[shagnscoob]

it also assumes that you have sex randomly without getting to know the person first/assessing your risk possibility.

most girls you know well enough to have sex with would probably say something. and if they dont know yet, you should read MM because you're probably ****ing her too soon to avoid buyers remorse hahahaha

 

[Deep Dish]

Falcon:
Was it because the virus recently mutated so it could or was it like that all along and they just didn't know?

It's the increase in knowledge, I do believe.

HSV-1 is "oral" herpes and HSV-2 is "genital" herpes. You can get HSV-1 in your genitals and HSV-2 in your mouth...but that doesn't mean the viruses themselves mutated into the other - just infected another location.

Sure, no disagreement here.

 

[Throttle]

it also assumes that you have sex randomly without getting to know the person first/assessing your risk possibility.

exactly. that is nonetheless a fair assumption for a subset of men... including some inhabitants of these forums, if their tall tales are to be believed.

 

[penkitten]

actually from what i read...
they used to believe that hsv1 was oral and hsv2 was genital
i think they now believe that hsv1 is less severe than hsv2 and they are two different type that can appear on either place.
there are also herpes called Oropharyngeal, cutaneous, and ocular caused by type 1.http://biogetica.com/human-herpes-virus.html

*** that site says it can be passed thru urine and discharge now, never heard that before****

i know there are 8 kinds of herpes a human can catch:
hsv 1, hsv2, chicken pox&shingles(varicella) , mono(epsteinbarr), mononucleosis, roseola ,type 7 which is like type 6 roseolo, and Kaposi's Sarcoma
http://bodyandhealth.canada.com/cha...ext_id=1364&channel_id=1020&relation_id=10877

 

[wayword]

actually from what i read...
they used to believe that hsv1 was oral and hsv2 was genital
i think they now believe that hsv1 is less severe than hsv2 and they are two different type that can appear on either place.
there are also herpes called Oropharyngeal, cutaneous, and ocular caused by type 1.http://biogetica.com/human-herpes-virus.html

How is that different than what they've always believed?

HSV-2 remains dormant in the sacral ganglia...although it can also infect other areas.

Anyhow, your average attractive young girl has probably had at least 5 partners by around age 20 (and many may argue more like 10-15). Girls these days are basically unpaid hookers. With those kinds of numbers (and often with higher-risk male players), it's common sense that quite a few are getting infected.

Now, you could be exposed to a girl with herpes without CONTRACTIG it. Infection occurs most often (but certainly not always) when she is having an outbreak - which may be only a few times a year. So, just because you haven't caught it yet, doesn't mean you haven't fooked a girl with herpes yet. You might have, just been lucky and not gotten infected.

Chances are, if you've slept with a handful of girls, one of them had herpes...

I mean, rumor has it that Mystery himself has herpes. With his kind of numbers, I suppose it'd be hard not to.

 

[penkitten]

How is that different than what they've always believed?

HSV-2 remains dormant in the sacral ganglia...although it can also infect other areas.

i meant that ppl used to believe that hsv1 is only oral and hsv2 is only genital which is not exactly what they believe now.

Anyhow, your average attractive young girl has probably had at least 5 partners by around age 20 (and many may argue more like 10-15).

i think you are right wayword, because these days dating is so fast. people kiss faster and younger, they are having sex faster and younger and more casually. there are even more bi curious ppl having three somes than ever before right?
and then all these ppl break up sooner and they start all over by going too far too fast again with someone else. so i would bet anything that by age 20 a normal pretty girl has had somewhere between 5 and 10 partners.
except they dont want to come off looking bad so they cut the number in half and subtract 2.
as far as guys, i really dont know how many partners they would have, but i think that many dont want to look bad so they double the number when they talk.

 

[ryannath]

^^Unless the guy has been with alot of girls. My cousin is 19 and had sex with more than 20 girls and he told his last gf that he has been with 2 girls and she believed him and he stuck with that story.

 

[Docs]

Anyhow, your average attractive young girl has probably had at least 5 partners by around age 20 (and many may argue more like 10-15). Girls these days are basically unpaid hookers.

Nope, because girls usually have at least one AFC playing for all their dates.