Will confirmation bias cause the end of civilization as we know it today?

[oldmanofthesea]

A recent post by RangerMike gave me the idea to post a separate OT thread on this subject. It is something I have been thinking about a lot over the last few years.

We live in a post-truth world now. Lies and disinformation and conspiracy theories seem to be embraced by more people than ever before, to where it has truly penetrated into the mainstream instead of just fringe groups of crazy people. I believe a big part of that is due to the internet, social media, and smart phones, where literally anyone inside or outside the country can get their message out to the entire world for free with the click of a button. A person no longer needs a contract with a radio or TV news program to spread their crazy out across the airwaves; now anyone can create podcasts and YouTube shows.

What has surprised me the most is:
1 - The number of people who will believe whatever they are told if it confirms their desired narrative. I had no idea it could affect such a large portion of the population so deeply.
2 - Just how far people would go to ignore facts and embrace totally bonkers off-the-wall and extremely obviously false information, just because it fits their narrative.

I have been researching this topic a lot, and while I have learned a lot about why people do it, what I have yet to see is: What is the solution, or is there even one? What can be done to help people snap out of their fog, understand the difference between facts and lies, and stop accepting any and all disinformation and lies just because it confirms whatever they want to believe? Everything I have read has been fatalistic - that it will get worse not better, due to the internet, deep fake video, etc.

 

[DelayedGratification]

What has surprised me the most is:
1 - The number of people who will believe whatever they are told if it confirms their desired narrative. I had no idea it could affect such a large portion of the population so deeply.
2 - Just how far people would go to ignore facts and embrace totally bonkers off-the-wall and extremely obviously false information, just because it fits their narrative.

I have been researching this topic a lot, and while I have learned a lot about why people do it, what I have yet to see is: What is the solution, or is there even one? What can be done to help people snap out of their fog, understand the difference between facts and lies, and stop accepting any and all disinformation and lies just because it confirms whatever they want to believe? Everything I have read has been fatalistic - that it will get worse not better, due to the internet, deep fake video, etc.

I am right there with ya. My recent posting history has been a quixotic attempt to get members here to put their money where their mouth is in terms of the random fringe "information" being bandied about without anything to back it up. As I like to say, in the battle between an Unstoppable Force and an Immovable Object, the Immovable Object wins every time.

My research on the topic shows that it basically comes down to people getting into a literally delusional state of mind. Once you're down that rabbit hole, it's difficult to come back. I also wish I was seeing signs of hope. So far, that's been elusive.

 

[Serenity]

I think the underlying issue is information overload. There's too much information, too much pressure to have an opinion, fear of admitting to having no opinion and way too little time to thoroughly make up an opinion about what others expect you to care about. People take shortcuts, end up being wrong and in the end looking like fools. They made up their mind before they had the whole picture.

Personally I limit information, not too much news, noise, what other people think etc. and I look into one thing at a time properly before I'll even talk about it. Can't know everything about everything. If you ask me what I think about X and I haven't thought about X I will say I don't know and I'll have to think about it before saying anything. Then what happens, they think I'm a blank slate amd try to imprint their beliefs on me. Fvck off, I won't agree or disagree until I have seen what there is to see about it.

Taking a step back, disconnecting, smelling the roses and getting back into it with a singular focus is the solution. People today are rushing, they want the answers to 50 different problems preferably yesterday, but that's not how the world works. Everyone can shovel out sh!t, crafting a masterpiece takes time and focus. Everyone has a strong desire to see quality, but only a few understands what it takes to deliver it.

Basically people are overwhelmed with information and they're sh!t at handling it properly.

 

[oldmanofthesea]

Personally I limit information, not too much news, noise, what other people think etc. and I look into one thing at a time properly before I'll even talk about it. Can't know everything about everything. If you ask me what I think about X and I haven't thought about X I will say I don't know and I'll have to think about it before saying anything. Then what happens, they think I'm a blank slate amd try to imprint their beliefs on me. Fvck off, I won't agree or disagree until I have seen what there is to see about it.

We are very alike in both approach on this and in our experience of the results. It is so funny yet infuriating how when you admit it’s not a subject you’ve truly delved into in order to form a solid and informed opinion, that people think that is their opening to mold you (usually with a load of BS they have simply heard yet not actually researched themselves). I usually just smile and maybe ask them a thought provoking question or two but the people who only parrot “information” all seem to follow the tactic of just trying to spew as many BS “facts” at you as they can. “Oh did you hear about this? And what about this. Oh and this person did this...” I usually end up walking away or trying to change the subject.

aking a step back, disconnecting, smelling the roses and getting back into it with a singular focus is the solution.

While that may be a solution you or I could adopt, I don’t see it as a solution the masses will follow. Power-hungry people now know how easy it is to manipulate people into following their cause, so their efforts to do this will not decrease, they will increase, and more and more people will fall into the trap. It’s quite frightening to me.

 

[Lookatu]

It all started with "reality" tv...

Just waiting until the aliens finally reveal themselves and turn the world upside down even more.

On a serious note though, I'm of the belief that certain organizations have far too long controlled media and information to the general public. I'm glad there are alternate views people can be exposed to, and thanks to technology, this can be possible.

I don't see any solutions and just chalk it up to each person having a belief and taking it to their graves. Kind of like hardcore blue pilled guys that will never be exposed or refuse to investigate the red pill angle. They will live the blue pilled life as their reality and take it to their grave believing that's how things are.

The problem though is when each group tries to force their beliefs to the masses, then you have protests, wars, sanctions, restrictions, etc that disrupts rest of humanity from living peacefully.

 

[oldmanofthesea]

On a serious note though, I'm of the belief that certain organizations have far too long controlled media and information to the general public. I'm glad there are alternate views people can be exposed to, and thanks to technology, this can be possible.

While I totally agree with the control of information in the past, I had hoped that the alternate sources of information that would spring up online would be fact-based but what I am seeing is that 99% of them are not. And it is leading to serious problems, putting people in danger, and leading to the fall of society.

 

[Lookatu]

While I totally agree with the control of information in the past, I had hoped that the alternate sources of information that would spring up online would be fact-based but what I am seeing is that 99% of them are not. And it is leading to serious problems, putting people in danger, and leading to the fall of society.

I don't really have an answer for that other than people are wanting to believe what makes sense for them, even if there is no hardcore proof on some of these theories. This is nothing new for man as we have believed in various forms of religion throughout time without any proof either. Man has been accustomed to, in this regard, on going by 100% faith. Wars have started over religion so I think we're just shifting it from religion to whatever other beliefs that people want to place on others.

 

[oldmanofthesea]

I don't really have an answer for that other than people are wanting to believe what makes sense for them, even if there is no hardcore proof on some of these theories. This is nothing new for man as we have believed in various forms of religion throughout time without any proof either. Man has been accustomed to, in this regard, on going by 100% faith. Wars have started over religion so I think we're just shifting it from religion to whatever other beliefs that people want to place on others.

That is a great point about religious wars and such, throughout history, however, I had previously thought we had evolved past that into a more civil and fact-based society since the “dark ages”, but I’m seeing now that’s not true. Evidence and research...... But clearly that isn’t the case and human nature is still such that people would rather dismiss facts and believe in fairy tales instead.

 

[Lookatu]

That is a great point about religious wars and such, throughout history, however, I had previously thought we had evolved past that into a more civil and fact-based society since the “dark ages”, but I’m seeing now that’s not true. Evidence and research...... But clearly that isn’t the case and human nature is still such that people would rather dismiss facts and believe in fairy tales instead.

Belief and reality are relative these days. Part of that is fueled by the fact that people are now discovering various cover-ups that's happened in the past. This makes them reluctant to believe in any "facts" that certain organizations that's had a history of cover-ups may communicate. I don't think you can blame certain individuals for their actions. But of course, you'll have the extremists on both ends. I believe the truth(relative or not) may lie in the middle somewhere.

I have to admit, I'm not "main stream" and have alternate beliefs but I don't disrespect or treat anyone less of anyone that doesn't share mine or have different ones of their own.

The US especially has gotten into an assimilation phase more so than ever I feel. No one can express anything outside of the "main stream" views these days or you're in jeapordy of losing friends, jobs, sponsorships, business, etc. It's really sad.

 

[oldmanofthesea]

Belief and reality are relative these days. Part of that is fueled by the fact that people are now discovering various cover-ups that's happened in the past. This makes them reluctant to believe in any "facts"

I think that is extremely dangerous. We have courts of law that are in place to prevent things like burning people at the stake who are accused of witchcraft. What I am seeing is that we are sliding backwards toward burning people at the stake again because they think that suddenly facts are simply whatever you want to believe and whatever matches your confirmation bias, no matter how insane it really is and without a shred of evidence to back it up.

I understand about various coverups but some are using that as justification that you shouldn’t believe ANYTHING that runs contrary to your desired beliefs, regardless of facts and evidence, and that you should believe EVERYTHING, without question, that does align to your desired beliefs, even if it is totally outlandish and there isn’t a shred of evidence to support it. We have moved away from that kind of thing, especially over the last 100-200 years, and now I see it suddenly backsliding. It’s like people really want to drag us back into caves with sticks and stones.

People should be able to express whatever they want but obviously there will be consequences to that. If someone expresses to me that they don’t like me just because I am white or black or Christian or Muslim, they can expect a consequence for that in how I respond to them and treat them moving forward.

 

[Black Widow Void]

This particular topic has lately been close to an obsession in my head. For the life of me, it's difficult to understand how people willingly adopt group-think -- rather than process thoughts like an individual.

Oh sure, we are all guilty and have certain biases, but unlike most people, I enjoy discovering mine. Once I'm aware, I'm able to strip away that 'varnish' and broaden my views and knowledge. This seems normal to me, but is apparently 'abnormal' to your typical status-quo person.

I remember reading reports that Russia was meddling on social media and influencing U.S. citizens. I then thought to myself, should I be angry at Russia (if this is the case) or should I be mad at the fact that so many U.S. citizens are so gullible and naive. After all, such alleged "Russia meddling" wouldn't work; if we U.S. citizens were smarter. Right?

I enjoy meeting all walks of life. Topics this year (politics, covid etc...) are hot discussions. Any time I present facts and dispel their theories... they became angry! I believe that most people do not want to learn, but instead, they want to be "right." I've recently been politely asked to leave a bar (actually twice). It's not because I raised my voice, but because I seem to bring out this behavior in others. It's as though I've taken away their 'security blanket' and they suddenly become livid.

Back in high school, I recall witnessing a lot of group-think and conformity. After reaching a certain age, I thought that most people had outgrown this. I'm now seeing just as much among my own peers these days (and I'm old!).

 

[jimwho]

The stupidity used to be amusing. Now it's a mix of disbelief, sadness, fright, and contempt. Us old timers can clearly see the difference between yesteryear and today. The list is endless of the sad sick reality of what's happening today.
Big things like racism pointed at the wrong people. Sports being political formats, and celebrations after each play. Lazy people living off taxpayers. Illegal people pouring into the USA. Law abiding people stripped of rights. And fake news.

I'm still amused at people falling into water fountains staring at their phones.

 

[Lookatu]

I think that is extremely dangerous.

facts are simply whatever you want to believe and whatever matches your confirmation bias, no matter how insane it really is and without a shred of evidence to back it up.

Once again, people have never needed actual evidence to believe in something(aka religion). People have hated, separated themselves out, mistreated, gone to wars over differences in religion. You see the same thing happening now but shifting from religion to other things like politics for example. People like to concentrate and are fixated on the differences these days more than similarities.

 

[EyeBRollin]

Yes, OP. Correct. This will lead to the end of society. We were already headed towards this. Facts do not matter. The human brain is not wedded to the truth. On the contrary...

 

[oldmanofthesea]

Once again, people have never needed actual evidence to believe in something(aka religion). People have hated, separated themselves out, mistreated, gone to wars over differences in religion. You see the same thing happening now but shifting from religion to other things like politics for example. People like to concentrate and are fixated on the differences these days more than similarities.

I agree with all of your points here. My point though, is that I have felt civilization has made strides toward facts, science, and evidence-based outcomes over the past century or two, moving us forward and away from the dark ages of religious based wars. We have courts of law where evidence is presented and claims must be supported by facts and evidence. Is our system perfect? No it never will be. But it’s been a huge improvement in the last century. But I am seeing it slide backwards. Just because wars were fought over things that had no evidence in the past doesn’t mean we should slide back into that, does it?

 

[Lookatu]

I agree with all of your points here. My point though, is that I have felt civilization has made strides toward facts, science, and evidence-based outcomes over the past century or two, moving us forward and away from the dark ages of religious based wars. We have courts of law where evidence is presented and claims must be supported by facts and evidence. Is our system perfect? No it never will be. But it’s been a huge improvement in the last century. But I am seeing it slide backwards. Just because wars were fought over things that had no evidence in the past doesn’t mean we should slide back into that, does it?

I see what you're saying. I guess we can blame it on the internet and the availability and ease of disseminating information.
To be honest though, I don't think we 100% see eye to eye on this matter but that's ok. I'm all for questioning everything and individual thinking. However I don't think anyone is 100% right either no matter what they believe, including me. I just like to keep an open mind more than others and not crucify anyone for their beliefs. I believe in a lot of grey areas and therefore can't get behind science, "facts", and evidence(manufactured or not), and courts 100% due to corruption, deception, agenda.

Here's one specific example I was talking about people not trusting officials regardless of courts, science, facts. There's been a huge war on drugs by the US government over the years. First it was marijuana, then cocaine. Countless amounts of tax payers money and lives were lost in fighting it. Back then you had public service announcements on how bad marijuana was. As for science end of it, you had government subsidizing or paying for several drug studies except marijuana. Now you have several states that have legalized marijuana after all these years. What happened to all those psa's and how can you overlook all the wars, efforts, lives, etc caused by it? And how about the livelyhood of the people that have been incarcerated by possession of marijuana when it was illegal back then but still have a felony record where they can't even get a job, even at a dispensary? This is just one example but hopefully you get my drift.

 

[oldmanofthesea]

To be honest though, I don't think we 100% see eye to eye on this matter but that's ok. I'm all for questioning everything and individual thinking. However I don't think anyone is 100% right either no matter what they believe, including me. I just like to keep an open mind more than others and not crucify anyone for their beliefs. I believe in a lot of grey areas and therefore can't get behind science, "facts", and evidence(manufactured or not), and courts 100% due to corruption, deception, agenda.

I think we do see eye to eye on this actually. I too know I’m not right 100% of the time and I know no one is. The difference between you and me and BlackWidowVoid and RangerMike vs the kinds of people I am becoming increasingly frustrated about, is the willingness to both admit that we might not be right, and the willingness to accept and review and research facts that don’t support our current beliefs, as well as to be able to change our mind on things based on facts.

I too feel there are many gray areas. Your example on drugs is a good one. I also don’t have firm positions on a lot of hot button topics because I simply don’t personally care about them too much and as such, haven’t researched them to the level I would need to in order to debate someone on it or go vote on it. When at the ballot office, if I haven’t completely researched a ballot measure and heard opinions on both sides of it, I simply won’t vote on the measure.

But, there are some things that simply aren’t that grey.... or maybe this is the thing you and I don’t quite see eye to eye on. If someone is out there saying the earth is flat and they are proven wrong over and over by facts and evidence, without themselves providing real evidence and are instead just spouting theories, is that really grey? If someone is making one outlandish claim after another without any evidence to support their case, and volumes of evidence against what they are saying is available, is that still a grey area and should people continue listening to them? That’s another characteristic I see: Not only are people willing to believe someone that lies non-stop, but even after that person is proven wrong 10,000 times, people choose to keep believing them. At what point do you wake up and realize, ok clearly I can’t trust them.

 

[Lookatu]

Not only are people willing to believe someone that lies non-stop, but even after that person is proven wrong 10,000 times, people choose to keep believing them. At what point do you wake up and realize, ok clearly I can’t trust them.

I agree with you and can understand what you're saying. It's like those people in cults where they say the world is going to end and when it doesn't, they still continue believing in their cult leader and continue following them.

I think we all have varying degrees on what we'll believe or keep an open mind to. Glad you brought up the flat earth example though because that clearly exemplifies one of the extremes and communicates your thoughts on this more effectively in what you're trying to convey.

 

[Who Dares Win]

I believe our biology didnt evolve as fast as the technology.

Just like we cant deal with dopamine overloads coming from online trading (men) to attention wh0ring (women) , we also cant deal with the information overload our brains receive daily.

There is probably more info in 10 videos we can see on youtube that that all the info received in an entire life from a caveman.

 

[Desdinova]

I think we all have varying degrees on what we'll believe or keep an open mind to. Glad you brought up the flat earth example though because that clearly exemplifies one of the extremes and communicates your thoughts on this more effectively in what you're trying to convey.

The last five years or so has really made me do a double-take on society. I'm constantly thinking "people actually believe this 5hit?" It's almost as if we have a backlash against truth and information. When we had our idiot Prime Minister voted in and saw all the dumbass 5hit he was doing to our country, I needed to check out of the city I was living in and bought some rural land. Personally, I enjoy living in my own little piece of the world without being surrounded by idiots.

Perhaps it's too much acceptance of everything that has led us to being in this position. We accepted that women should have equal rights. We accepted that being gay is normal. Now we need to accept that there are 64 genders. We also need to accept that white male privilege is a bad thing. Now we must accept that it's okay to believe that the Earth is flat. Where does it end? When does society draw the line and say "fvck you, that's not acceptable?" Is that line going to be firmly drawn with sexually abusing children? We already had that movie "Cuties" trying to push the limits. Is that going to be the end of it? I somehow doubt it.