What stocks do you guys own?

[PlatoPacks23]

there are sooo many "traders" nowadays, if you are a true investor I'd honestly just buy a few stocks and not check back for a month. the noise is overwhelming

 

[eli77]

Thank god for paper trading!

 

[FlirtLife]

its a figure of speech he used e.g. the 10 K hours to get good at anything. So in your case "people picking stocks" they will highly likely not get to that level either because it take a lot of time and work to get to that level. So again you are just guessing but you do not really know what you are doing.

True, and most people don't have 10k hours even in a related area. Your 10k+ hours of professional trading gives you a significant head start in swing trading, but also makes it very likely you are in the 5% of investors for whom active investing could work.

I don't know how many traders are legends, and how many of them follow the NYSE tick closely. I forget the name of the guy who answered people interested trading by saying "I hope you lose". He felt if that offended someone, they probably weren't cut out for trading.

One caveat, I've invested actively for a few years, benchmarking myself against the S&P 500. Most of my time investing (self-taught) has been passive indexing, which I recommend to almost everyone.

 

[AureliusMaximus]

there are sooo many "traders" nowadays,

Most of them are just fake keyboard warriors that self proclaim to be real investment gurus and traders of the internet. But really don't know shyte. They however of course also will attempt you to buy something off them from the internet.

Real professional traders don't need to be on the internet to make the big bucks, we make that on our work already. So there is no real need to be on YouTube and shame yourself by selling your ass for a few bucks of income.

 

[SargeMaximus]

Investing is so important tho. This pic below sums it up

 

[Murk]

Amazon and Google from years ago, several crypto.

I last checked October 2022 and sometime in 2021.

Not my thing. If I ever need money urgently I'll sell it all.

 

[eli77]

What forums are you a member of?

 

[oc16]

Netflix, Disney, Sherwin Williams, 3M, Charles Schwab, Shell Plc (Oil), Cummins, Otter Tail

I think Otter Tail and Shell are the only two I am up on at the moment.

3m has been absolute garbage the past 5 years, but I love their products.

 

[Reincarnated]

I'm all for owning individual stocks, but please do me a favor and don't make more than 50% of your portfolio individually picked stocks. Get at least 50% into funds, doesn't have to be super boring index funds, but those aren't bad either. And while you're at it, my best advice is find an employer that'll match at least 4-6%, that's literally a mathematical 100% return on investment, can't beat it.

Personally I have the following
- 5% (give or take) in company stock (part of a stock comp plan), smaller bank (no we're not on the verge of a liquidity crisis)
- 15% Developing Markets Fund
- 20% International Blend Fund
- 15% US Smallcap Growth Fund
- 25% S&P 500 Fund
- 20% US Dividend Growth Fund.

If you're more adventurous, I think US corporate debt is a good place to find risk-weighted yield, both investment grade and speculative/junk debt.

If you can stomach some potential losses, I'd throw my hat in the ring for some of the regional banks that got hammered this week. Key Bank Corp is down 30% or something but is fundamentally strong. I'd pick 3-4 of those, and if 1-2 rebound, one breaks even, and one flops you'll probably make out alright.

Individual blue chips are probably a bad bet on their own right now, there will be ripple effects from banks of all sizes battening down the hatches and tightening credit underwriting. Equity market at large likely a bit overvalued.

Uncertain times are when the real money is made, the only real losing strategy is to stay on the sidelines in my opinion.

 

[jaygreenb]

I'm all for owning individual stocks, but please do me a favor and don't make more than 50% of your portfolio individually picked stocks. Get at least 50% into funds, doesn't have to be super boring index funds, but those aren't bad either. And while you're at it, my best advice is find an employer that'll match at least 4-6%, that's literally a mathematical 100% return on investment, can't beat it.

Personally I have the following
- 5% (give or take) in company stock (part of a stock comp plan), smaller bank (no we're not on the verge of a liquidity crisis)
- 15% Developing Markets Fund
- 20% International Blend Fund
- 15% US Smallcap Growth Fund
- 25% S&P 500 Fund
- 20% US Dividend Growth Fund.

If you're more adventurous, I think US corporate debt is a good place to find risk-weighted yield, both investment grade and speculative/junk debt.

If you can stomach some potential losses, I'd throw my hat in the ring for some of the regional banks that got hammered this week. Key Bank Corp is down 30% or something but is fundamentally strong. I'd pick 3-4 of those, and if 1-2 rebound, one breaks even, and one flops you'll probably make out alright.

Individual blue chips are probably a bad bet on their own right now, there will be ripple effects from banks of all sizes battening down the hatches and tightening credit underwriting. Equity market at large likely a bit overvalued.

Uncertain times are when the real money is made, the only real losing strategy is to stay on the sidelines in my opinion.

Would be very careful with regional banks, Yellen basically said they are only bailing out the top banks with systematic risk. Most likely means a lot of consolidation to the top but never know.

 

[SargeMaximus]

I’m swinging for the fences myself. Commodities although if QE is back on, crypto will do well

 

[jaygreenb]

I’m swinging for the fences myself. Commodities although if QE is back on, crypto will do well

What percentage of your portfolio is commodities?

 

[SargeMaximus]

What percentage of your portfolio is commodities?

99%

 

[jaygreenb]

I’ve started buying them. What kind of commodities?

I held plenty but sold a lot last year.

Are you holding commodity producer shares or just real commodity paper swaps?

the other interesting asset class is commercial property.

Both commodities and property have opposing pressures. Recession on one side lowering demand and increasing voids, and inflation on the other side increasing real value.

I would be highly doubtful we are returning to QE at any point for a long time. Lowered rates maybe.

You think commercial is interesting, as it is now a good buy? I am in the opposite camp, think it is going to get demolished. Their debt structure is a lot different than residential, most of it is a floating rate and they have not had the additional cost of increased rates yet. Some properties might be able to ride it out but if rates stay elevated or increase, going to get much worse. Then add in more commercial debt is handled by regional banks, they are way over exposed with the other issues they have. Then add in layoffs and work from home, a lot of pressure to the downside

Might not technically be called QE but massive stimulus happened in the past week with the Fed balance sheet expansion. Also with higher rates over time many market segments will start to break, if systematic fed with backstop.

These are just my opinions though, of course I could be wrong

 

[jaygreenb]

We might be talking at cross purposes. I’m talking about bricks and mortar commercial property funds. It may be different in US but debt isn’t a big feature of these funds, holding too much cash is the main issue.

Of course, businesses have to raise debt to buy them so that may affect the price short term. The U.K. residential market Is totally different to the US by the way. Our mortgage deals are 2-5 years. The BOE has a much stronger lever on consumers than the fed does.

bricks and mortar is usually an excellent inflationary hedge. There may be better times to buy later on but that depends on how deep you feel a recession would be. Usually rental income keeps up well with prices.

The place I would hate to be now is junk bonds or credit. There will be great opportunities to buy these in next 12-18 months. The spread on credit is not worth the risk imo.

Commercial property isn’t actually an area I’m that experienced in. More of a bond/equity guy!

I am far from a RE expert, really just have a loose understanding of how it ties into the market. I have several good friends who run funds that I have some money with. Typically, I just pepper them with questions and get their insights. I didn't realize you were in europe, imagine a lot of different dynamics at play. Americans are spoiled with fixed 30yr mortgages, I know that is not the norm.

My general opinion is any industries/markets that are tied to cheap debt, most likely have some more room to the downside or at a minimum be stagnant for a while. The problem in general is markets have been so distorted by monetary policy it is almost impossible to get real pricing. A lot just depends on what the Fed does not natural market forces. Imagine there will be a lot of opportunity on the horizon if prepared.

My only hesitation with brick and mortar is it is hard to stay competitive if it is possible to go to a more online model. Simply because they will have much higher operational costs to varying degrees depending on the industry. I also believe a lot of back office and admin jobs may end of getting replaced by tech, not sure what timeline though.

 

[jaygreenb]

depends on the type of bricks and mortar.

High end office will always be in demand for a long time.

Industrial is looking amazing. Retail being replaced by distribution hubs. Even with AI, you still need workshops.

Most of history shows new tech creates jobs as well as destroying them. Think of auto pilot on an aircraft. It frees up pilots to do other stuff. We have lost flight engineers, but we have many, many more pilots needed.

Do agree with depends on space, imagine industrial, wharehouses, low cost senior housing will all have increasing demand. High end office space does have a lot of pressure to the downside though. There have been some major defaults lately and there are very large funds doing it. SF and NYC are having some major issues with this, as well as other cities. That type of space is very expensive to convert to other uses as well. Here is an article on it, there are many out there about this. Also companies as they renew their leases they will not need as much room with work from home and layoffs. Add in having to adjust costs to higher rates, could be a recipe for many more defaults coming down the pipe

A Flood of Defaults Swamps Big Names and Big Properties

The dam holding back default filings — especially in the office market — clearly has burst.

commercialobserver.com

I am not sure new tech will balance out job creation and destruction though. Some major sectors can potentially get wiped out like drivers, back office, admin etc That is just my guess but personally do not know enough about that to have a strong opinion

One last thing to add as well, the past few years showed companies it is possible to work remotely. This will potentially drive wages down in western countries if labor can be done outside an immediate area or country. Again, no sure how big an effect this will have 5-10+yrs from now

 

[Young OG]

I recommend AGNC Investment. They offer a 14.50 dividend yield.

 

[jaygreenb]

Well, the one thing you can do is cancel any company where an Indian picks up the phone.

that’s what I do. No questions asked. I’m fed up with people trying to answer queries who can’t properly speak English.

You know the feeling. When the customer service call is answered and you hear and strong accent and you think “this is going to be painful”

Totally understand, haven't dealt with that recently but remember this happening a while back with anything tech related. Literally couldn't understand anything. Not sure how much attention you are paying to AI, chatgpt etc but think programs like this may replace a lot of low level customer service. It is moving at a really fast space, not sure if that is a good thing but it is happening. Going to be an interesting decade.

 

[ManFromTartarus]

Spent the last 2 years swing & day trading to offset the losses and volatility in my mutual funds. Got to be a little too much computer work for me and threw it all back into the mutuals at the end of 2022. Things are starting to look a little better lately and am looking at poking around some more.

I don't invest individually on steady slow movers like Apple & Disney, I leave that to the mutual funds, and focus on things that produce better at the moment.

When oil is popping I'll work Valero, Devon, Marathon. Health & pharmaceuticals like Vertex & Cardinal health look interesting at times, and day trade anything that's hitting. Made a couple good moves with Revlon that way.

Swing & day trading takes a lot monitoring online so I have to weigh out the time/effort factor with having a life.

 

[Peaks&Valleys]

Gold, Silver. Learn options and covered calls.