PlatoPacks23
Senior Don Juan
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2023
- Messages
- 379
- Reaction score
- 127
there are sooo many "traders" nowadays, if you are a true investor I'd honestly just buy a few stocks and not check back for a month. the noise is overwhelming
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Tell her a little about yourself, but not too much. Maintain some mystery. Give her something to think about and wonder about when she's at home.
Quote taken from The SoSuave Guide to Women and Dating, which you can read for FREE.
True, and most people don't have 10k hours even in a related area. Your 10k+ hours of professional trading gives you a significant head start in swing trading, but also makes it very likely you are in the 5% of investors for whom active investing could work.its a figure of speech he used e.g. the 10 K hours to get good at anything. So in your case "people picking stocks" they will highly likely not get to that level either because it take a lot of time and work to get to that level. So again you are just guessing but you do not really know what you are doing.
Most of them are just fake keyboard warriors that self proclaim to be real investment gurus and traders of the internet. But really don't know shyte. They however of course also will attempt you to buy something off them from the internet.there are sooo many "traders" nowadays,
Would be very careful with regional banks, Yellen basically said they are only bailing out the top banks with systematic risk. Most likely means a lot of consolidation to the top but never know.I'm all for owning individual stocks, but please do me a favor and don't make more than 50% of your portfolio individually picked stocks. Get at least 50% into funds, doesn't have to be super boring index funds, but those aren't bad either. And while you're at it, my best advice is find an employer that'll match at least 4-6%, that's literally a mathematical 100% return on investment, can't beat it.
Personally I have the following
- 5% (give or take) in company stock (part of a stock comp plan), smaller bank (no we're not on the verge of a liquidity crisis)
- 15% Developing Markets Fund
- 20% International Blend Fund
- 15% US Smallcap Growth Fund
- 25% S&P 500 Fund
- 20% US Dividend Growth Fund.
If you're more adventurous, I think US corporate debt is a good place to find risk-weighted yield, both investment grade and speculative/junk debt.
If you can stomach some potential losses, I'd throw my hat in the ring for some of the regional banks that got hammered this week. Key Bank Corp is down 30% or something but is fundamentally strong. I'd pick 3-4 of those, and if 1-2 rebound, one breaks even, and one flops you'll probably make out alright.
Individual blue chips are probably a bad bet on their own right now, there will be ripple effects from banks of all sizes battening down the hatches and tightening credit underwriting. Equity market at large likely a bit overvalued.
Uncertain times are when the real money is made, the only real losing strategy is to stay on the sidelines in my opinion.
What percentage of your portfolio is commodities?I’m swinging for the fences myself. Commodities although if QE is back on, crypto will do well
99%What percentage of your portfolio is commodities?
You think commercial is interesting, as it is now a good buy? I am in the opposite camp, think it is going to get demolished. Their debt structure is a lot different than residential, most of it is a floating rate and they have not had the additional cost of increased rates yet. Some properties might be able to ride it out but if rates stay elevated or increase, going to get much worse. Then add in more commercial debt is handled by regional banks, they are way over exposed with the other issues they have. Then add in layoffs and work from home, a lot of pressure to the downsideI’ve started buying them. What kind of commodities?
I held plenty but sold a lot last year.
Are you holding commodity producer shares or just real commodity paper swaps?
the other interesting asset class is commercial property.
Both commodities and property have opposing pressures. Recession on one side lowering demand and increasing voids, and inflation on the other side increasing real value.
I would be highly doubtful we are returning to QE at any point for a long time. Lowered rates maybe.
I am far from a RE expert, really just have a loose understanding of how it ties into the market. I have several good friends who run funds that I have some money with. Typically, I just pepper them with questions and get their insights. I didn't realize you were in europe, imagine a lot of different dynamics at play. Americans are spoiled with fixed 30yr mortgages, I know that is not the norm.We might be talking at cross purposes. I’m talking about bricks and mortar commercial property funds. It may be different in US but debt isn’t a big feature of these funds, holding too much cash is the main issue.
Of course, businesses have to raise debt to buy them so that may affect the price short term. The U.K. residential market Is totally different to the US by the way. Our mortgage deals are 2-5 years. The BOE has a much stronger lever on consumers than the fed does.
bricks and mortar is usually an excellent inflationary hedge. There may be better times to buy later on but that depends on how deep you feel a recession would be. Usually rental income keeps up well with prices.
The place I would hate to be now is junk bonds or credit. There will be great opportunities to buy these in next 12-18 months. The spread on credit is not worth the risk imo.
Commercial property isn’t actually an area I’m that experienced in. More of a bond/equity guy!
Tell her a little about yourself, but not too much. Maintain some mystery. Give her something to think about and wonder about when she's at home.
Quote taken from The SoSuave Guide to Women and Dating, which you can read for FREE.
Do agree with depends on space, imagine industrial, wharehouses, low cost senior housing will all have increasing demand. High end office space does have a lot of pressure to the downside though. There have been some major defaults lately and there are very large funds doing it. SF and NYC are having some major issues with this, as well as other cities. That type of space is very expensive to convert to other uses as well. Here is an article on it, there are many out there about this. Also companies as they renew their leases they will not need as much room with work from home and layoffs. Add in having to adjust costs to higher rates, could be a recipe for many more defaults coming down the pipedepends on the type of bricks and mortar.
High end office will always be in demand for a long time.
Industrial is looking amazing. Retail being replaced by distribution hubs. Even with AI, you still need workshops.
Most of history shows new tech creates jobs as well as destroying them. Think of auto pilot on an aircraft. It frees up pilots to do other stuff. We have lost flight engineers, but we have many, many more pilots needed.
Totally understand, haven't dealt with that recently but remember this happening a while back with anything tech related. Literally couldn't understand anything. Not sure how much attention you are paying to AI, chatgpt etc but think programs like this may replace a lot of low level customer service. It is moving at a really fast space, not sure if that is a good thing but it is happening. Going to be an interesting decade.Well, the one thing you can do is cancel any company where an Indian picks up the phone.
that’s what I do. No questions asked. I’m fed up with people trying to answer queries who can’t properly speak English.
You know the feeling. When the customer service call is answered and you hear and strong accent and you think “this is going to be painful”