Weather

[wavejams007]

Well, one of the headings of this section is the weather, so I want to discuss it.

Here in Quito it is cold as hell, but I really want to talk about the hurricanes in Florida.

Do you all think next year will be better or worse? I knw forecasts say worse, but in the end they don't really know. Justa wandering what you all think.

 

[frivolousz21]

considering the earth is warming and methane gas is clouding up our atmosphere...it should continue to get worse as the atlantic heats up rapidly.

im afraid my friends its almost to late if not to late to stop this warming trend.

 

[dakota]

The general trend over the last 50 or so years is the climate is slowly warming due to anthropogenic forcing. The effects of the forcing have been mitigated in part due to a concurrent natural cooling trend as well as major volcanic eruptions. Yearly climate variation is caused ny natural and anthropogenic variables.
Cuurently we are in Hurricane xycle that will likely lead to a fair amount of hurricanes. Cycles of upswings in Hurricane activity have occured in the past. It is not clear if this current Hurricane cycle is natural or a result of anthropogenic factors at this time.

 

[Bible_Belt]

I read that global warming may change the jet stream paths so that winters are actually much colder in North America. That could be what we are experiencing this winter.

 

[frivolousz21]

yes sir

if the atlantic is warmer...its more likely that the Northern Jet will trough in the midwest/east..and ridge over the warm atlantic waters....whch would allow the hudson bay LOW pressure to sink further south.....and allow more snow further south..which would help artic air sit over the same area longer without a breakdown of the ridge in place.

we are seeing it this yr that way...

I havent seen this much cold air in dec in my life..I live in St louis

 

[dakota]

Originally posted by frivolousz21
yes sir

if the atlantic is warmer...its more likely that the Northern Jet will trough in the midwest/east..and ridge over the warm atlantic waters....whch would allow the hudson bay LOW pressure to sink further south.....and allow more snow further south..which would help artic air sit over the same area longer without a breakdown of the ridge in place.

we are seeing it this yr that way...

I havent seen this much cold air in dec in my life..I live in St louis

Actually...
the reccent trend , if any, has the jet with significant ridging in the western US, allowing cold artic air south as the Jet dives south over the Central US. There is little ridging over the atlantic at this time. Additionally, the primary moisture source for the US west of the rockies ( aside from the east coast) is the Gulf of Mexico. The hudson bay low would have little if any effect on snowfall in St louis.

 

[doctoroxygen]

Global warming pisses me off because it isn't proven to exist. Average US temperatures over the last hundred years have DECLINED, and the US is the number one producer of "greenhouse gases". Carbon levels in the atmosphere have gone up 35 parts per MILLION in the last two hundred years! Does anyone really think that 35ppm is going to raise temperatures? It's a waste of time and money right now to worry this much about climate change, because it's not something we know that much about.

 

[wavejams007]

Originally posted by doctoroxygen
Global warming pisses me off because it isn't proven to exist. Average US temperatures over the last hundred years have DECLINED, and the US is the number one producer of "greenhouse gases". Carbon levels in the atmosphere have gone up 35 parts per MILLION in the last two hundred years! Does anyone really think that 35ppm is going to raise temperatures? It's a waste of time and money right now to worry this much about climate change, because it's not something we know that much about.

It is not known whether global warming exists or not.

I personally lean in favor of your opinon, but Iknow that our pollution isn't helping anything. But school textbooks don't include the fact taht global warming isn't proven to exist, and this pisses me off. They should show both sides and let the students decide.

 

[DrMetallica]

Damnit, it was 70 degrees F today. And it's December. Coldest winter my ass.

I live in Arizona

 

[dakota]

Originally posted by doctoroxygen
Global warming pisses me off because it isn't proven to exist. Average US temperatures over the last hundred years have DECLINED, and the US is the number one producer of "greenhouse gases". Carbon levels in the atmosphere have gone up 35 parts per MILLION in the last two hundred years! Does anyone really think that 35ppm is going to raise temperatures? It's a waste of time and money right now to worry this much about climate change, because it's not something we know that much about.

WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!
the global climate is warming, that is actually clear. However the NATURAL TREND is that we are in a cooling period, however anthroopgenic factors are resulting in a WARMING TREND.

 

[doctoroxygen]

What part is wrong? The average temperature in the US is cooling. Global climate data is spotty up until about 30 years ago, when they started using satellite data. 30 years of solid data is not enough to claim that human activity is causing the Earth to warm; we just don't know enough about climatic history to justly make that argument.

 

[frivolousz21]

The hudson bay low would have little if any effect on snowfall in St louis.

your right....


but it affects the cold..without the cold we can thave snow.

but with these cold artic Highs in place...its so dry we dont have much snow.

 

[frivolousz21]

but also the more south the low..the more south the clipper systems..are....if one of these vigorous clippers came threw and the gulf of mexico was open for bussiness.....if the air temps are 25 Fh and under...we could have snow ratios of 20-1.



.5-.75 tenths would be 10 to 14 inches.

hasnt happened yet..but in Jan of 2003 we had a upper level low roll threw that swung around the hudson low...and it picked up moisture from the gulf and at 30 degrees we got 8 inches of snow.

 

[dakota]

Originally posted by doctoroxygen
What part is wrong? The average temperature in the US is cooling. Global climate data is spotty up until about 30 years ago, when they started using satellite data. 30 years of solid data is not enough to claim that human activity is causing the Earth to warm; we just don't know enough about climatic history to justly make that argument.

One last time, then I will give up. We have good solid climate data from various natural sources that go back much further than 30 years. And once MORE, although the natural climate trend is cooling the overall climate trend is warming due to anthropogenic factors.
How about this, I will ask the guys at the local National Weather Service Office what they think when I take the Meteorology class THAT I TEACH on a tour of the site early next month. Of course odds are I will be the former boss of the guy giving us the tour.

 

[Bling]

Last year, I was told that this happens every 25 years. This year it's 10. Yet these idiot forecasters are being paid millions to predict the wrong weather. There was suppose to be no rain today, there was rain today. In the north, there was some snow to come, none. Then it appeared when nothing was suppose to come. Weather is too hard to predict from day-to-day. How the hell do we know what happens next year?

 

[Brian20o2]

5000 years ago a being called "human" began to grow rice and eat it in large quantities. That produced methane which in turn caused the natural 'cooling' of the earth to be slowed/reversed. We notice it now that we have complex technology.

It will take a while to undo 5000 years of damage.

My solution: Destroy all the rice eating aisans.

j/k

 

[doctoroxygen]

Okay, I misworded that. We have lots of global historic climate data, but about 30 years of atmospheric temperature data. To equate ice cores with atmospheric data is bad science.

 

[splinterkb]

So far the coldest it's been is -9 degrees F.