Trump Leads Hillary

[taiyuu_otoko]

What do you think the world will be like in 10-20 years?

History doesn't repeat, but certainly rhymes, says Mark Twain.

 

[Dhoulmagus]

History doesn't repeat, but certainly rhymes, says Mark Twain.

Lmao

 

[Tenacity]

I wouldn't exactly call it an experiment. Companies that pay people to make stuff have always tried to get the cheapest labor possible. (just as individual workers are responsible for finding the highest wage possible). It's just that in the past few decades, companies are BIG ENOUGH to find cheap labor across the planet, instead of domestically.

There's a blogger I read, (https://ourfiniteworld.com/ Gail Tverberg, an actuary) who points out that the future is just like Bible says. Less and less need for workers, (robots) and cheaper and cheaper commodities as global demand continues to shrink. Rich WILL continue to get richer, middle class will continue to vanish, and poor people will continue to become more dependent on the government.

You might even say that the "middle class" is a FAILED EXPERIMENT of american history, as it was simply not sustainable. There's no magic law of society that says the existence of a middle class is even sustainable. It's certainly not been present in very many societies in the past.

For the VAST MAJORITY of human history, there's been the super rich, and everybody else. You may say we're in the midst of a HUGE REVERSION to the mean of human history.

The existence of the middle class could accurately be described as a one-off, unsustainable side effect of the posts WWII economic condition, where the U.S. was the ONLY MANUFACTURING place on Earth, and basically gave dollars to other countries to use to buy our stuff (creditor financing).

That con ran it's course, and the middle class has been slowly dying ever since the gold standard ended.

A decent and depressing read if you've got a few minutes:

Wage Stagnation in Nine Charts

Excellent, excellent commentary T.O.

Here are my questions to you on this:

- What fields should people go into (as an employee or to start a business) to better position themselves in the HAVES pile?

- What's your opinion on stocks (index funds) and bonds going forward? Should we invest in those and if not, what other vehicles should we use for passive investing?

- How does women and starting a family fit into all of this? A lot of other people in my Generation (Millennials) believe that in order to truly make it and be comfortable going forward....you would opt out of creating kids altogether. Do you agree with this or disagree?

One thing I can feel is that the next 20 - 30 years is going to look like something we've never seen before. Which is why when I debate people on other forums about "the stock market" and how they always pull out their 100 year old charts as if to say stocks averaged 10% per year over the last 30 years....they will do the same over the next 30 years.....I'm wondering HOW can they say that when we are facing things right now that we have NEVER faced before??

 

[Tenacity]

Hillary is about to speak

 

[taiyuu_otoko]

Hillary is about to speak

Yeah, but apparently not a lot of folks are listening...

 

[taiyuu_otoko]

What fields should people go into (as an employee or to start a business) to better position themselves in the HAVES pile?

Anything where you can be mobile (programming, web design, online freelancing), or anything in hardcore STEM. Robots, automation, building, designing, repairing. Any kind of sales is good, so long as you can sell anything to anybody. The more the better.

What's your opinion on stocks (index funds) and bonds going forward? Should we invest in those and if not, what other vehicles should we use for passive investing?

Nothing for passive investing, unless you have enough to buy into top hedge funds. Set and forget is risky as hell now.

How does women and starting a family fit into all of this? A lot of other people in my Generation (Millennials) believe that in order to truly make it and be comfortable going forward....you would opt out of creating kids altogether. Do you agree with this or disagree?

Just make sure any wife is "red pill" economically speaking. Having a partner will a full time income will definitely help. Kids or not is a personal choice. Up to you. Don't sell yourself short. Five ten years from now you could be making WELL into six figures. Enough to support a family. Especially if you have a decent partner that helps you get there. Plenty young to start a family.

 

[Tenacity]

Anything where you can be mobile (programming, web design, online freelancing), or anything in hardcore STEM. Robots, automation, building, designing, repairing. Any kind of sales is good, so long as you can sell anything to anybody. The more the better.

Excellent overview, I agree 100%. I believe that technology automation, robotics, and cheap global labor is going to "take over" in relation to taking away a lot of good middle class premium paid jobs, and replace them with said technology and cheap labor. As a result, I think for this new economy, individuals should be trying to position themselves on the RIGHT side of this rather than the WRONG side.

- The wrong side is to be on the side where the technology or cheap labor is going to take your job away as the alternative can do the same job, with at times higher levels of productivity, for a lower labor cost.

- The right side is to be the person that creates the technology, controls the technology, manages the technology, or (and this is the big one here) EMPLOYS the technology along with employing the cheap labor through starting profitable businesses.

Nothing for passive investing, unless you have enough to buy into top hedge funds. Set and forget is risky as hell now.

I don't know about this now T.O., because there has to be some aspect of passive investing because we can't JUST do the active side only.

Stocks - I think a major correction is coming and a crash is coming sooner than people think. As a result, I believe buying in TODAY is just setting you up for losses. Plus stocks are no longer just about the companies you are investing in, and how profitable/growing they are. There's so much shyt tied into stocks that it's hard to risk mitigate all of it. But, if I were advising someone I would tell them to stay on the sidelines for now, when the correction happens, buy a S&P Index Fund and hold it for 30 years. In addition, also buy a Total Bond Index Fund.

Fixed Income - I love this going forward even though the rates will NEVER go back to where they were, if you shop around with this then you should be able to beat inflation and beat the low rates from a savings account. I include things here such as Individual Long Term CDs, Individual Bonds, P2P Lending, and Annuities. I don't include Bond Index Funds here due to the active trading component. To me Bond Funds are pretty much watered down Stock Funds.

Just make sure any wife is "red pill" economically speaking. Having a partner will a full time income will definitely help. Kids or not is a personal choice. Up to you. Don't sell yourself short. Five ten years from now you could be making WELL into six figures. Enough to support a family. Especially if you have a decent partner that helps you get there. Plenty young to start a family.

I've given myself a deadline though, if I don't create a kid or kids by my very early 40's (or by 40 itself) then that's it. I believe going forward it will take my child at least until age 25 - 28 to become established due to the new changing landscapes and in addition, I'm not trying to be 60 chasing after some 7 year old or 60 having to deal with a HOT IN THE PANTS teenager.

When I turn 60 - 62, I'm done. I'm retired. My major life projects are done.

 

[taiyuu_otoko]

Crafty California Democrats