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Self-Driving Car Predictions

Bible_Belt

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http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...yft-google-zack-kanter/#.VOeswEiZcQQ.linkedin

...Autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030, and the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation our society has experienced. They will cause unprecedented job loss and a fundamental restructuring of our economy, solve large portions of our environmental problems, prevent tens of thousands of deaths per year, save millions of hours with increased productivity, and create entire new industries that we cannot even imagine from our current vantage point.

The car purchasers of the future will not be you and me – cars will be purchased and operated by ride sharing and car sharing companies.

PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that the number of vehicles on the road will be reduced by 99%... it is unlikely that major automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota will survive the leap. They are geared to produce millions of cars in dozens of different varieties to cater to individual taste and have far too much overhead to sustain such a dramatic decrease in sales.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 884,000 people are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, and an additional 3.02 million in the dealer and maintenance network. Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. Virtually all of these 10 million jobs will be eliminated within 10-15 years, and this list is by no means exhaustive.
 
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user43770

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Such an endeavor has to make A LOT of people rich in order to succeed. And when I say a lot of people, I'm not talking about bible belt or tyte eyes. The elite could give two sh1ts about us, or those 884,000 who will be looking for jobs.

Just look at current legislation. Our representatives couldn't be more enthusiastic about allowing more H1B visas. Because there is a "shortage of high-skilled workers." If you look up the numbers, you'll see that there is in no way a shortage of Americans capable of performing these duties. The real problem is Americans cost too much.

Hey, as long as it's benefitting those that already have more wealth than they could possibly do away with in several lifetimes...
 
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Bible_Belt

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That article doesn't even mention everyone employed by the DUI police state who will be out of job. They are going to have to make it illegal to be drunk while your car drives you around, or else too many people will be out of work. Cops, lawyers, court workers, court-mandated driving school employees, MADD, breathalyzer makers and trainers - the list of people who make money off of DUIs is a long one.

I live in a rural county with high poverty. The property tax base for the county is low, to say the least. They have to bribe commercial property developers by promising not to tax them. Because there's not much property or economy to tax, a very significant percentage of the county's revenue comes from fines levied by the county court. Most of those, especially the ones they are able to collect, revolve around DUI arrests. Rural counties are mostly broke already; without DUI they would all go into the red very quickly. Services would be cut, and more jobs would disappear.
 
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user43770

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Bible_Belt said:
I live in a rural county with high poverty. The property tax base for the county is low, to say the least. They have to bribe commercial property developers by promising not to tax them. Because there's not much property or economy to tax, a very significant percentage of the county's revenue comes from fines levied by the county court. Most of those, especially the ones they are able to collect, revolve around DUI arrests. Rural counties are mostly broke already; without DUI they would all go into the red very quickly. Services would be cut, and more jobs would disappear.
You hit it out of the park. Government employees have to justify their salaries somehow. Your county might not even need any new services, but bureaucrats will FIND something you need. Easy money in doing busy work.
 

Tenacity

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Let me tell you something guys, Robotics are going to continue taking over just about every major industry going forward and eventually will replace HUMANS in some fashion as well as extend the life of humans allowing a person to create a Robotic copy of themselves.

This is why I tell everybody that if you aren't working in a STEM founded area, you are going to be left behind going forward. Robotics falls under the Technology/Engineering wing and your compensation going forward is going to be tied to how well you can manage robotic technologies within your firm, plant and operations.

Even Fast Food is going to replace their minimum wage striking (and whining) employees with Robotics sooner than everyone thinks. Pretty soon you are going to go to McDonalds and a Robot will be taking your order while the cook/chef/employee in the back prepares the food.
 
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user43770

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Tenacity said:
Let me tell you something guys, Robotics are going to continue taking over just about every major industry going forward and eventually will replace HUMANS in some fashion as well as extend the life of humans allowing a person to create a Robotic copy of themselves.

This is why I tell everybody that if you aren't working in a STEM founded area, you are going to be left behind going forward. Robotics falls under the Technology/Engineering wing and your compensation going forward is going to be tied to how well you can manage robotic technologies within your firm, plant and operations.

Even Fast Food is going to replace their minimum wage striking (and whining) employees with Robotics sooner than everyone thinks. Pretty soon you are going to go to McDonalds and a Robot will be taking your order while the cook/chef/employee in the back prepares the food.
Sure, but you will still need someone to build and maintain said robotics. Also, construction trades can never be replaced. Except by illegal immigrants. Damn, we're pretty much fvcked.
 

mrRuckus

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I don't believe those dates to be as soon as they say. There are a billion issues that need resolved as well as legal hurdles after that. The software has be nearly perfect and all the morons around can't even make an obamacare website work and my windows taskbar has been bugged in various ways since 1995.
 

taiyuu_otoko

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That's assuming, of course, that there isn't a catastrophic economic implosion in the next decade, which is not a given by a long shot.

Anything that massive HAS to be funded by government, or by government subsidies.

Any kind of self driving car is going to need absolutely HUGE infrastructure changes, etc. I just don't see that happening. Maybe in a few cities.

As far as robots, they certainly ARE coming, especially when it's cheaper (over a 5 or so year time period) to use a robot instead of an entitled minimum wage worker.

They've already got some "robots' that make burgers FRESH to order (slice the tomatoe, etc) AND smoothy machines.

The same thing pushed elevator technology decades ago. They used to have those elevator girls, but when they got too expensive, they invented the self-serve elevator.

Also, it's predicted that traditional education will be gone in 50 years, as online learning will be much easier, much cheaper, and will give many more people access to HIGH QUALITY instructors.

Tenacity is right, if you ain't in STEM, you're going to get left behind.
 

Stagger Lee

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mrRuckus said:
I don't believe those dates to be as soon as they say. There are a billion issues that need resolved as well as legal hurdles after that. The software has be nearly perfect and all the morons around can't even make an obamacare website work and my windows taskbar has been bugged in various ways since 1995.
I agree. I question whether automated vehicles without a human driver at least as back up will ever let alone 15-30 years from now be feasible especially economically.

Thirty years ago people assumed we'd have flying cars by now. It's just not going to happen. Labor is cheap and getting cheaper thanks to all the legal and illegal immigration and the billions of people worldwide. I tend to believe things will decline rather than advance. There will be more automation, and it'll cost people jobs just as heavy workloads, long hours and immigration does. It's already gotten to the point it's done for reason beyond economics. STEM won't save you. We already have more STEM qualified people than STEM jobs with special interest and their bought congressmembers clamoring for more immigrant STEM workers.
 

Create Reality

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Self-driving cars will eventually allow passengers to ride for free, if they accept a non-stop stream of commercial viewing and listening for the ride duration :yes:
 

Bible_Belt

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Create Reality said:
Self-driving cars will eventually allow passengers to ride for free, if they accept a non-stop stream of commercial viewing and listening for the ride duration :yes:
Good point, or at least a reduced rate if not free. There will be some measure to keep out riffraff and homeless people, like a credit card deposit. As you get in the car, they'll scan your phone, look up all your online purchases, and then show you ads based upon how you are profiled. If you've been on sosuave, you'll see a bunch of ads for dating sites.

Here's some pics of the Army testing a convoy of self-driving trucks last year: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...gest-development-autonomous-U-S-military.html It reminds me of the Stephen King story Trucks, which was made into a 1980s movie, Maximum Overdrive.
 

AgesDuctPro

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Haha, it's funny that you posted an article dated right BEFORE Google announced it's noping out of cooperating with Uber on this.
 

mrRuckus

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taiyuu_otoko said:
As far as robots, they certainly ARE coming, especially when it's cheaper (over a 5 or so year time period) to use a robot instead of an entitled minimum wage worker.
My pizza robot doesn't travel at 100 mph over infinite combinations of obstacles, so sure.
 

taiyuu_otoko

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mrRuckus said:
My pizza robot doesn't travel at 100 mph over infinite combinations of obstacles, so sure.
You're kidding right? Amazon is already using drones as delivery vehicles. It's not the price or technology that is holding them up, it's the government.

If they were allowed, drones could deliver pizzas much faster than humans.
 

Bible_Belt

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I remember when Bill Clinton dropped a cruise missile on Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, except it malfunctioned and did not explode. A few days later, the Chinese came and bought the unexploded missile from the al qaeda guys, loaded it on a truck, and took it back to China.
 
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