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Quarantines coming in major cities

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corrector

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Which Canadian is going to apply for the free $ 1,800 per month hand-out that Trudeau is offering? I bet all the right-wingers will secretly go and apply to the Canada Revenue Agency website and claim that benefit, lol!
 

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DelayedGratification

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Yes I’m aware of that. The point is, however, that our nation’s resources and efforts to slow the exponential rate of exposure can be heavily focused on a relatively small geographical area.

Anyone who watches the news can see this is exactly what they’re doing. There’s a reason why Bozeman, Montana isn’t making headlines with shutdowns while NYC, San Fran and others are.

So for you to say these numbers are inevitable is no different than saying all of these concentrated efforts to restrict it will be futile and ineffective.
I hear what you're saying, and there's merit to the argument that physical distance begets its own natural social distance. But in the argument of trajectory being the primary cause for concern, I'd direct you to these graphs (note the Y axis is an exponential scale):

Growth Rates, State by State

Each graph compares the given state to New York. Short of a few outliers, there are far more similarities than differences. Even when you account for variations in demographics, geography, and testing rates.
 

Amante Silvestre

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I hear what you're saying, and there's merit to the argument that physical distance begets its own natural social distance. But in the argument of trajectory being the primary cause for concern, I'd direct you to these graphs (note the Y axis is an exponential scale):

Growth Rates, State by State

Each graph compares the given state to New York. Short of a few outliers, there are far more similarities than differences. Even when you account for variations in demographics, geography, and testing rates.
These don’t account for much variation, IMO. It might seem so when you compare at the state level, but again, these numbers are being driven primary by densely populated areas in each of those states.

Washington State’s King County is the hardest hit. It is the most populated county in the state and 12th highest in the country.

Louisiana and NY may seem like very different geographies with different demographics and so on, but New Orleans holds the majority of the states infections. A city.

Research the bulk of cases in each of those states in the graph and you will find that roughly half or more of the cases in each state will be found in very densely populated areas. So it only makes sense that all these other densely populated areas will follow a similar trajectory as NY, which is driven primarily by NYCs stats.

I spoke yesterday with a doctor that treated a few covid 19 patients In NYC. He has been tracking the death rate just in the city and has said that even though the number of cases and deaths are still increasing, the actual death rate was starting to slowly trend down.

New Rochelle, NY, which was the first place in the country to quarantine its residents, just reported the number of new cases slowing down, proving that these restrictions are having an effect, even if you chose to ignore China’s claims as propaganda.

We’re at just about 18,000 confirmed cases in the US right now and there are already a few positive signs starting to come up. I understand that there will definitely be a lot more people infected and more people will die; that hospitals will certainly be taxed, but to just go out and say tens of millions of US citizens will succumb to this virus because it will continue unchecked I think is a gross overestimation and a complete lack of faith in all of the protocols being adopted or that will soon be adopted to prevent that.
 

DelayedGratification

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Research the bulk of cases in each of those states in the graph and you will find that roughly half or more of the cases in each state will be found in very densely populated areas. So it only makes sense that all these other densely populated areas will follow a similar trajectory as NY, which is driven primarily by NYCs stats.
Agreed on the city mice vs the country mice.

We’re at just about 18,000 confirmed cases in the US right now and there are already a few positive signs starting to come up. I understand that there will definitely be a lot more people infected and more people will die; that hospitals will certainly be taxed, but to just go out and say tens of millions of US citizens will succumb to this virus because it will continue unchecked I think is a gross overestimation and a complete lack of faith in all of the protocols being adopted or that will soon be adopted to prevent that.
The figures I've seen (from the Imperial College of London report) are that approx 2.2 million die in the US with no mitigation in place, and more like 1.2 million in an ideal, China-style lockdown (which isn't going to happen here). So I don't know who's claiming tens of millions, but roughly halving the death toll from 2.2M and saving a million lives seems a worthwhile thing.
 

billtx49

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Agreed on the city mice vs the country mice.


The figures I've seen (from the Imperial College of London report) are that approx 2.2 million die in the US with no mitigation in place, and more like 1.2 million in an ideal, China-style lockdown (which isn't going to happen here). So I don't know who's claiming tens of millions, but roughly halving the death toll from 2.2M and saving a million lives seems a worthwhile thing.
The Last place I would look to for accurate facts would be a public university hypothetical study.
WHO and CDC are up to date and have real facts from the field…
 
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thinker

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@corrector I live in the Miami and fort Lauderdale areas of florida in the good ol U.S.A., I think instead of focusing on things that you don't understand and can't control why don't you focus on the things you can control. Something that I haven't seen anyone else point out is that the hardest hit areas of the U.S. have very high populations of Chinese people, for example NYC and San Francisco both have such large chinese populations that they have their own china towns. Seattle also has a large chinese population. Actually all of california has a large chinese population and so does Italy. I believe this makes a difference. Where I live is the most populated area of Florida, Florida has more test kits than any other state so we are testing more than any other state and yet we are not seeing massive spikes in infections I think it is because we do not have a very large chinese population here.
 

Bible_Belt

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The ny times dug up a simulation study done last year, attempting to replicate the 1918 flu pandemic if it happened today. Everything we are seeing now was predicted, especially equipment shortages. Only a draft copy was published. It was as though it was too horrific to finish the paper and release it.
 

Amante Silvestre

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The figures I've seen (from the Imperial College of London report) are that approx 2.2 million die in the US with no mitigation in place, and more like 1.2 million in an ideal, China-style lockdown (which isn't going to happen here). So I don't know who's claiming tens of millions, but roughly halving the death toll from 2.2M and saving a million lives seems a worthwhile thing.
The CDC here doesnt seem to match those numbers. Their worst case estimate is between 200,000 and 1.7 million deaths in the US and that is with absolutely no mitigation taken into account, I.e. we did absolutely nothing and went on with life as usual this whole time.

They are currently working on estimates that would take all CURRENT efforts to mitigate the spread into account, but they have not released those numbers yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if those estimates came out to something along the lines of 50,000 to 500,000.

Even those numbers will unlikely take into account any newer discoveries along the way as we learn more about the virus and how to treat it. There are significant differences in how this virus spreads in different countries, and even in different cities internationally. There are reasons why hiding there, and discovering these reasons can have dramatic effects. Those numbers may also not take into account any medicinal treatments that may prove effective over the next couple of months and so on. These things could bring the death toll down to just thousands.

But the point is, when people say millions of deaths are coming in the US, they are clearly going by very pessimistic and alarmist views on this, with virtually little hope that it will be avoided.

This is all like the Drake Equation. It’s a great formula that allows you to estimate how many advanced civilizations there may be in the galaxy based on values that are known to be required, but most of the numbers you plug into it are not absolute. They’re just guesses that can vary widely on opinion. There are a lot of unknowns with covid 19, and a lot of differing opinions. But the answers are coming.

So in the end, you can throw out all kinds of numbers and reasons for it, but you just don’t know. And if you don’t know, there’s little justification in running around saying millions will die. Or at the very least, it is no more solid and reasonable to say so than to claim this is nothing worse than the common cold.
 

billtx49

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The ny times dug up a simulation study done last year, attempting to replicate the 1918 flu pandemic if it happened today. Everything we are seeing now was predicted, especially equipment shortages. Only a draft copy was published. It was as though it was too horrific to finish the paper and release it.
Well it’s a dam shame the Spanish virus and the one we currently have would be like comparing aardvarks to eskimos and looking for similarities.

On a high note, DHS Secretary Chad Wolf just announced that a national lockdown or quarantine will Not happen.…
He dismissed that speculation. It also dismisses this threads purpose.
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