ImTheDoubleGreatest!
Master Don Juan
Alright, so here's the thing: we know that people who go to paternity testing clinics are more likely to be victims of paternity fraud (I mean, they have doubts for a reason, right?). Currently, that rate is at 25.9% (reported by paternity clinics themselves as of 2008 at least). We also know that in the US, there are around 400,000 paternity tests each year as of 2008.
For the sake of argument, let's overestimate the number of paternity tests to be 500,000 each year, with an incidence of 50% non-paternity. Extreme over-estimations, but whatever.
This would equate to 250,000 children each year not being fathered by the person they think is actually the father.
Now we also know that in the US, there are around 4 million births each year. The CDC stated that there were 3,791,712 births in 2018, which is the lowest it's been over 30 years.
Now look at this data:
I added the number of total people here and calculated the percentage of misattributed paternity. I only looked at the US data because let's face it, American women are the worst in the world lol.
So, the number came out to be 2.37% for the rest of the population that did not have a paternity test. Granted, this number isn't 100% accurate due to logistical issues, such as how black people are disproportionately more likely to have paternity misattribution but also only make up 12.7% of the population, or how research still tends to be made up mostly white people, or how these studies are pretty old and most of them didn't have precise DNA-testing technology for paternity like how we do now.
Despite this however, it still is a pretty good estimate just because firstly, women's rights activists from the 20s were interested in pursuing paternity-testing technology (because back then, dads used to say "hey I'm going to the store to buy a pack of cigarettes, I'll be right back" and then they end up never coming back lol). Secondly, women were also more likely to get away with paternity fraud back then, so when looking at the data, you'll find that instances of false paternity are higher in the years before 1988 (the year paternity testing came out) than after.
But for the sake of argument, let's double it anyway; 4.74% false paternity for the rest of the population.
3.8 million - 500,000 = 3.3 million
3.3 million × 4.74% = 156,574
(156,574 + 250,000) ÷ 3.8 million = 10.7%
Now the thing is, this is a gross overestimation. I'll save you the mathwork, but the real percentage without all of these astronomically insane (and honestly unreasonable) overestimations is actually 4.73%
Sources:
insidestory.org.au
www.discovermagazine.com
Part 1: https://www.sosuave.net/forum/threa...ctually-as-common-as-you-think-part-1.264061/
For the sake of argument, let's overestimate the number of paternity tests to be 500,000 each year, with an incidence of 50% non-paternity. Extreme over-estimations, but whatever.
This would equate to 250,000 children each year not being fathered by the person they think is actually the father.
Now we also know that in the US, there are around 4 million births each year. The CDC stated that there were 3,791,712 births in 2018, which is the lowest it's been over 30 years.
Now look at this data:
I added the number of total people here and calculated the percentage of misattributed paternity. I only looked at the US data because let's face it, American women are the worst in the world lol.
So, the number came out to be 2.37% for the rest of the population that did not have a paternity test. Granted, this number isn't 100% accurate due to logistical issues, such as how black people are disproportionately more likely to have paternity misattribution but also only make up 12.7% of the population, or how research still tends to be made up mostly white people, or how these studies are pretty old and most of them didn't have precise DNA-testing technology for paternity like how we do now.
Despite this however, it still is a pretty good estimate just because firstly, women's rights activists from the 20s were interested in pursuing paternity-testing technology (because back then, dads used to say "hey I'm going to the store to buy a pack of cigarettes, I'll be right back" and then they end up never coming back lol). Secondly, women were also more likely to get away with paternity fraud back then, so when looking at the data, you'll find that instances of false paternity are higher in the years before 1988 (the year paternity testing came out) than after.
But for the sake of argument, let's double it anyway; 4.74% false paternity for the rest of the population.
3.8 million - 500,000 = 3.3 million
3.3 million × 4.74% = 156,574
(156,574 + 250,000) ÷ 3.8 million = 10.7%
Now the thing is, this is a gross overestimation. I'll save you the mathwork, but the real percentage without all of these astronomically insane (and honestly unreasonable) overestimations is actually 4.73%
Sources:
The fatherhood myth • Inside Story
Fathers’ groups claim many children don’t know who their real father is. But what does the evidence say?
insidestory.org.au
The Paternity Myth: The Rarity of Cuckoldry
Explore the myth vs. reality of paternity confidence and why misattributed paternity rates are much lower than believed.
Part 1: https://www.sosuave.net/forum/threa...ctually-as-common-as-you-think-part-1.264061/
