My gf wants us to put away the condoms....should I?

[Giovanni Casanova]

Originally posted by DrMetallica
'Tis nothing about how you went wrong, I am simple stating that assuming you took it perfectly, assuming you are not lieing, and assuming the effectiveness rate is 99.99%, the probability that someone would get pregnant 4 times is .000000000000000001.

And I am saying that you need to take a statistics class, because you are way off on that.

Let's say that the odds of someone having a heart attack in their twenties is 1 in 5000. Now, let's say that Jim has a heart attack when he is 22 years old because he has a heart condition. He is that one guy out of 5000. Now... what are the odds that he will have another heart attack while he's in his twenties? Would you say that his odds are still 1 in 5000? By your model, Jim's odds of having a second heart attack are 1 out of 25,000,000. Jim should feel lucky that he had a heart attack at 22, because that means that his odds of having a second heart attack in his twenties have dropped considerably. Of course, that's stupid. Jim's odds of having a second heart attack in his twenties are markedly greater than the average person in their twenties.

Same situation here.

 

[penkitten]

Originally posted by DrMetallica
"The Pill works by preventing ovulation, as well as making the uterus less likely to accept implantation of an embryo if one is created, and thickens the mucus in the cervix making it more difficult for sperm to reach any egg. Taken correctly, it is the single most reliable form of reversible contraception, with less than one in 100 women using the pill becoming pregnant in a year of continuous use."

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_pill

this doesnt say that it prevents eggs from being released.
if no eggs are released then there is no period.

my sister in law has a really long worded diease that prevents her from having periods. her dr has to go in and clean out her flopian tubes every so often because they are full of eggs that werent released . this was caused from having too much testrone in her body and has something to do with her obesity. they keep suggesting that she have a hystroecomy done.

normal women, have periods every month even on the pill. so the pill can not stop eggs from being released.

 

[Giovanni Casanova]

Originally posted by A&F Brand Cologne
here comes captain save-a-ho, hijacking another thread.

let's stay on topic, okay guys?

This thread had already been hijacked by people with a limited understanding of medicine, science, and statistics.

As long as people are going to spread lies and innuendo, I'm going to point out when they're full of sh*t.

Got anything else to say, Princess?

 

[Giovanni Casanova]

Originally posted by DrMetallica
Please. If you drink enough alcohol you will get drunk. If you "don't have a buzz no matter how much" you drink, you're drinking APPLE JUICE!!!

Are you being thick on purpose, because I honestly have difficulty believing you're really this dumb.

Give me six shots of Chinano.

Give my friend Anthony six shots of Chinaco.

Give my friend Audrey six shots of Chinaco.

I will not have a buzz.

Anthony will have a very slight buzz but you'd barely be able to tell.

Audrey would be dancing with a lampshade on her head.

Our bodies are different, and we respond to the exact same quantities of the exact same chemical in three different ways.

 

[penkitten]

Originally posted by DrMetallica
Didn't you get the clue after your first pregnancy that the pill doesn't work for you? The second pregnancy? The third? The forth? Are you going to be having a fifth pregnancy soon?

well its not like that was the only thing i ever tried sweetie pie.
after the first baby, i took the depro shot, but it made me bleed everyday for 9 months and i lost about 30 lbs. so when i got down to like 87 lbs, i stopped the shot and got back on the pill per my dr.
then baby #2 came.
so then they insisted that i was too young to get my tubes tied and put me right back on the pill .
i finally talked my dr into putting me back on the shot, just to try it , however when i got to the appointment, they tell me baby #3 is on its way.
so then i demand to get my tubes tied, however my at the time husband lost his job and insurance so i had to go on the state insurance and they said i was 2 months too young to get my tubes tied.
so instead they gave me what is called an iud.
well it fell out.
so then they gave me a 2nd iud. well my at the time husband knocked it out on accident.
so then they give me the depro shot again.
yes , the state spent about the same amount as the tubal would have cost but they would not do what i asked.
the shots again made me loose lots of weight and bleed everyday for about 9 months. so when i weighed 79 lbs, i again got off the shot.
then i got back on the pill because i have ran out of options .
and evenutally baby #4 came.

now i have my tubes tied, and i already mentioned that .
remember i said how my dr made me sign a paper saying a tubal ligation was only 97% effective and that i couldnt sue them if i got pregnant again?

 

[penkitten]

i dont know why everyone thinks that i must be lying about something as stupid as birth control.

what the heck would i have to gain by that?

im just giving advise here , letting you know what can happen.

 

[DrMetallica]

Originally posted by Giovanni Casanova
And I am saying that you need to take a statistics class, because you are way off on that.

Let's say that the odds of someone having a heart attack in their twenties is 1 in 5000. Now, let's say that Jim has a heart attack when he is 22 years old because he has a heart condition. He is that one guy out of 5000. Now... what are the odds that he will have another heart attack while he's in his twenties? Would you say that his odds are still 1 in 5000? By your model, Jim's odds of having a second heart attack are 1 out of 25,000,000. Jim should feel lucky that he had a heart attack at 22, because that means that his odds of having a second heart attack in his twenties have dropped considerably. Of course, that's stupid. Jim's odds of having a second heart attack in his twenties are markedly greater than the average person in their twenties.

Same situation here.

Sounds like you havn't even been to a statistics class since you don't even know the difference between odds and probability. The way I got 1x10^-16 is you take the probability that she won't get pregnant (.9999), subtract that from 1, which is .0001 (the probability she will get pregnant), and then multiply it by itself 4 times because that's how many times she got pregnant.

Also, are you arguing the chances she gets pregnant increases as she pops out more babies? Please... lol. Unfortunately you don't realize that the variable is independent of itself! For example, let's flip a coin and say it lands heads. Let's flip it another time, do the chances increase that it will land heads? No, the probability will stay the same, .5. You say that I need to take a statistics class, when it is you, buddy, who needs to remember the principles.

 

[Climax]

You are missing the point!

errr..... Can you guys please take a breathe, and STOP ARGUING ABOUT something stupid... the bottom line is that the pill will not work with ALL women, no matter WHAT the statistics are, no matter if in GENERAL it's impossible to get pregnant 4 times while on the pill and using it correctly, penkitten is ONE individual which is "different" (no offence to you penkitten) and the pill just doesn’t work for her... So maybe for the rest of the women in the world that their body works "normally" or whatever is not "normal" about penkitten's body, THEN you can say that there is a 0.00000001, or whatever calculated statistic u got is correct with penkitten, but obviously as you can see, penkitten is an exception. Now I don’t see any reason for penkitten to lie about falling pregnant 4 times, so DrMetallica, why are you trying to prove reality wrong? IT HAPPENED, deal with it, and learn that statistics don’t apply for EVERYONE, there are exceptions.


Laterz...

 

[Nicholas Hill]

Re: You are missing the point!

Originally posted by ~ªêQµïTª$~
errr..... Can you guys please take a breathe, and STOP ARGUING ABOUT something stupid... the bottom line is that the pill will not work with ALL women, no matter WHAT the statistics are, no matter if in GENERAL it's impossible to get pregnant 4 times while on the pill and using it correctly, penkitten is ONE individual which is "different" (no offence to you penkitten) and the pill just doesn’t work for her... So maybe for the rest of the women in the world that their body works "normally" or whatever is not "normal" about penkitten's body, THEN you can say that there is a 0.00000001, or whatever calculated statistic u got is correct with penkitten, but obviously as you can see, penkitten is an exception. Now I don’t see any reason for penkitten to lie about falling pregnant 4 times, so DrMetallica, why are you trying to prove reality wrong? IT HAPPENED, deal with it, and learn that statistics don’t apply for EVERYONE, there are exceptions.


Laterz...

Agreed.

Who here is a medical expert? No-one! You all get your information from government pamphlets, television adverts, magazines and the internet.

Such information is not normally designed to be fully comprehensive and complete.

 

[quest]

well pen kitten.. you are truely one of a kind..

probably the 2nd most amazing person to have had a baby..

the most amazing was jesus' mumma, who used the only form of contraception stronger then you... abstinence...

just goes to show, you are never really safe..

and mecca, heres a new tip for ya.. hit that **** as much as you like, if she gets pregnant try two things.

1. push her down some stairs. *note - i did not tell you to do this and will not except any responsibility.... (don't do it )

2. just explain it aint ur damn kid. must be god's, or pen kittens mate, who has nuclear sperm.

 

[Giovanni Casanova]

Originally posted by DrMetallica
Also, are you arguing the chances she gets pregnant increases as she pops out more babies?

Okay, I take it back. You really ARE dumb.

No, I am not saying that the chances she gets pregnant increases as she pops out more babies. I am saying that the chances that properly administered birth control will fail are higher in someone who has already experienced that.

The reason is that human beings are not coin tosses. We have to examine WHY a woman would still get pregnant even if her birth control was taken correctly. This happens to 1 out of 1000 women who properly take birth control pills over the course of a year. So why would a woman get pregnant on the birth control pill, assuming she took it correctly? One major reason would be that the woman's body chemistry did not react properly with the pill.

Now, if a woman's body chemistry doesn't react correctly to the birth control pill, why would having a baby cure that? I ask that question because you seem to believe that her chances of getting pregnant again while on birth control are still only 0.1%. That's clearly an illogical position to take. Furthermore, your actual NUMBERS suggest that you think having a baby magically makes the probability of her birth control failing again go dramatically down (so instead of her having a 1 in 1000 chance, she now has a 1 in a million chance).

If you pick out any four women at random, and they all take birth control correctly, the odds that all four of them will get pregnant within one year will give you your 1x10^-16 figure.

P.S. Many fine college campuses around the country offer a course called "Probability and Statistics" or some variation thereof. I would like to suggest that you might enroll in it.

 

[Centaurion]

lmfao@nuclear sperm

but still, damn..shouldnt like a couple of alarm bells go off after you got your first kid while on the pill...not to mention no2..3 or hell 4..? well at least your mate must have had some little super troopers going on.


*respect to the mighty sperm cells of penkittens mate*

 

[Centaurion]

Originally posted by quest
2. just explain it aint ur damn kid. must be god's, or pen kittens mate, who has nuclear sperm.

im serioulsy cracking up on this.

BWHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH

 

[Desdinova]

You cannot trust anyone else on this earth as much as you can trust yourself. As clever etc as your gf is, she is human, and all it takes is ONE little mistake or ONE day thats she forgets, and 9 months down the line U'll be a father.

Excellent post!

Mecca411, you've already stated that you don't want to be a father. STICK TO YOUR WORD. I really don't know what the fvck it is with women who want to eliminate the condom. They start conveying it as a "trust" issue if you don't fvck her without a condom.

What you do when you quit using the condom is you put all the power of birth control into her hands. Unless you're feeding her the pills (which I used to do with my ex), you have no clue if she's taking the pill, putting in the film, etc. You're just supposed to trust her.

I've gone through a situation where I trusted the woman, but I caught her lying about taking her birth control. If you keep using the condom, you know it's there and she knows it's there (even though she may not want it). Go off the rubbers ONLY when you're making babies (or you get a vasectomy)

 

[DrMetallica]

Originally posted by Giovanni Casanova
Okay, I take it back. You really ARE dumb.

B*tch, please

No, I am not saying that the chances she gets pregnant increases as she pops out more babies. I am saying that the chances that properly administered birth control will fail are higher in someone who has already experienced that.

The reason is that human beings are not coin tosses. We have to examine WHY a woman would still get pregnant even if her birth control was taken correctly. This happens to 1 out of 1000 women who properly take birth control pills over the course of a year. So why would a woman get pregnant on the birth control pill, assuming she took it correctly? One major reason would be that the woman's body chemistry did not react properly with the pill.

In the first paragraph you say "no I'm not saying that" but the 2nd paragraph says that you are. Make up your damn mind! What I'm saying is that the variable is independent, that the chances do not increase no matter how many kids you have, that the probability is always 1/1000. You are saying the that it isn't independent. Well I challenge you to find an expert and ask him "if a girl gets pregnant on the pill, should she keep taking the pill because she might get pregnant again?".

Now, if a woman's body chemistry doesn't react correctly to the birth control pill, why would having a baby cure that? I ask that question because you seem to believe that her chances of getting pregnant again while on birth control are still only 0.1%. That's clearly an illogical position to take. Furthermore, your actual NUMBERS suggest that you think having a baby magically makes the probability of her birth control failing again go dramatically down (so instead of her having a 1 in 1000 chance, she now has a 1 in a million chance).

Go ask an expert or call a clinic and ask them if the chances increase she'll get pregnant the second time if she's on the pill.

If you pick out any four women at random, and they all take birth control correctly, the odds that all four of them will get pregnant within one year will give you your 1x10^-16 figure.

The probability that 4 women would get pregnant in one year (assume pill is effective 99.9% of the time, or in 1 year 1 girl gets pregnant out of 1000 girls) is c(4,4)/c(1000,4), that reads 4 choose 4 divided by 1000 choose 4, which is 2.41446022x10^-11 or .0000000000241446022.

The my figure of 1x10^-16 still stands because that is still the probability that she will get pregnant 4 consecutive times while on the pill.

P.S. Many fine college campuses around the country offer a course called "Probability and Statistics" or some variation thereof.

Good, please enroll yourself in one of them.

 

[DrMetallica]

Originally posted by penkitten
this doesnt say that it prevents eggs from being released.
if no eggs are released then there is no period.

normal women, have periods every month even on the pill. so the pill can not stop eggs from being released.

Okay read these:

http://www.sosuave.net/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=629429#post629429
Specifically, squirrels's post.

http://www.goaskalice.columbia.edu/0663.html

Even though there is a period, an egg is not released. Ovulation does not occur.

 

[Giovanni Casanova]

Originally posted by DrMetallica
In the first paragraph you say "no I'm not saying that" but the 2nd paragraph says that you are. Make up your damn mind! What I'm saying is that the variable is independent, that the chances do not increase no matter how many kids you have, that the probability is always 1/1000. You are saying the that it isn't independent. Well I challenge you to find an expert and ask him "if a girl gets pregnant on the pill, should she keep taking the pill because she might get pregnant again?".

Re-read my post until it makes sense to you. Your reading comprehension is clearly off.

Actually, in order to help you a little, I'll give you ONE more example, just giving you the benefit of the doubt that you are not the complete and abject moron you appear to be.

Let's say that you marry a woman and she gets pregnant. When she has the baby, it is discovered that the child has a genetic condition that occurs fairly rarely... about one in every 10,000 births. You just happened to be that unlucky 1 out of 10,000.

NOW... let's assume that your wife gets pregnant a second time. What are the odds that your second child will have that same disorder? Is it still 1 out of 10,000? Or does the fact that your first child had this disorder make it MORE LIKELY that your second child will be prone to have this disorder as well?

Or, if we want to be as dumb as you have been on this thread, would you say that the odds of having ONE baby with this disorder is 1 out of 10,000, so the odds of having TWO babies with this disorder must be 1 out of 100,000,000?

 

[Giovanni Casanova]

Originally posted by DrMetallica
Good, please enroll yourself in one of them.

Already did, and got a 4.0.

How were your probability and statistics grades? If you had this class (I'd wager you didn't), your professor deserves a real hard swift kick in the nuts.

 

[DrMetallica]

Listen dude I really enjoy most of your posts but here I am just calling you out on your bullsh!t. You are arguing over something that may or may not be true, but have contradicted yourself many times. I get it, you think it's easier to get pregnant when on the pill if you've already been pregnant on the pill. I understand your aguement. I believe the probability stays the same. Until we ask a medical expert who has reviewed the statistics there is no reason for debating this further... and stop being a little b*tch. You know my calculations are correct.

I'm taking Finite Math (business math) currently at Arizona State University and I have the highest grade in my class, 97%. We just went over probability and odds... but you don't even know the difference between the two.

 

[DrMetallica]

Originally posted by Giovanni Casanova
Re-read my post until it makes sense to you. Your reading comprehension is clearly off.

Actually, in order to help you a little, I'll give you ONE more example, just giving you the benefit of the doubt that you are not the complete and abject moron you appear to be.

Let's say that you marry a woman and she gets pregnant. When she has the baby, it is discovered that the child has a genetic condition that occurs fairly rarely... about one in every 10,000 births. You just happened to be that unlucky 1 out of 10,000.

NOW... let's assume that your wife gets pregnant a second time. What are the odds that your second child will have that same disorder? Is it still 1 out of 10,000? Or does the fact that your first child had this disorder make it MORE LIKELY that your second child will be prone to have this disorder as well?

Or, if we want to be as dumb as you have been on this thread, would you say that the odds of having ONE baby with this disorder is 1 out of 10,000, so the odds of having TWO babies with this disorder must be 1 out of 100,000,000?

According to your arguement if I win the lottery once, I have a much greater chance of winning it a second time.