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synergy1

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Anyone else willing to disclose their positions?

Yeah I'll disclose a few of my positions. While its fun to check the week to week price changes, I don't take them seriously at all. Most of my holdings satisfy two conditions - they possess a high return on invested capital, and have a high earnings yield. In the case of the former, I look at the Earnings before taxes, and divide it by working capital and fixed assets. The next is basically how cheap it is, and accounts for the debt of the corporation - thus I can compare highly indebted companies to those which are not...apples to apples.

Lastly, most companies I invested in are unpopular so wall street has hammered them down. For example, the for profit colleges are one of the dogs of wall street, and I own shares in Apollo Education group (APOL) which so far has netted me 25% since purchased in the end of 2013. One of my losers has been ITT tech (ESI), but has been hammered down due to these lawsuits. Once this passes, and I hold, the price will reflect its strong fundamentals. I also took a counter stance to Will Akman's view on Herbalife ( HLF), but so far am down due to a probe into the company. Once this has come to pass, it'll go back up. Another play I am taking a long approach on ( a higher P/E) is Express scripts - they will grow in the healthcare industry as they provide services. A few others I don't feel like discussing but I own : EBIX, and CHE, and taking a bet that menthol cigarettes don't tank with LO! All fundamentally good companies with long earnings histories and growth.

The one I am looking at is the spinoff of National Oilwell Varco. (NOV) A fundamentally strong company with trending earnings - it is spinning off its distribution business sometime in the first half of this year. I have performed a rough valuation of the company, and am still digesting 3 years of annual reports. Once the SEC paperwork is filed for the spinoff, I am going to read the details of the spinoff and buy the new company. Expectations at selling and a decrease in price initially as institutions and investors will dump the new company...think a reverse IPO where the price drops than over 2 years realizes its full entrepreneurial potential and is recognized. Joel Greenbaltt's "You can be a stock Market Genius" focuses on Special situation investing and spinoffs. In General what I will be looking for is a strong parent company, a spinoff that institutions will not want to own initially ( due to size, business etc), something insiders DO want ( so I'll look at stock compensation/ incentives). Lastly, there might be an asset play depending on the new spinoffs price. But since the 10B SEC filings aren't available, its still unknown to me. Oh yeah, Buffet has loaded up on NOV stock lately.

Other companies I am watching:

TFM - a wholefoods clone which, while priced highly, has a lot of room for growth.

TTWO - Take two entertainment which owns the Grand theft auto franchise. Their fundamentals are strong. Good return on invested capital, and price.

VALE - A brizilian mining company - cyclical thus unpredictable earnings. its priced based on poor 2013 earnings - but if priced to good years, it is trading at a MASSIVE discount to value. One good year of 1.03 EPS or even 3 $ per share, and you are looking at a stock that will double or triple in price.

Wishlist - a free subscription to valueline! :)
 

AAAgent

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Lost a decent amount on Tesla but bought bit coin stock that doubled. Just tripled down at the close of Friday's session. The stock hasn't shown any sign of weakness in the last 5 days.

Got back in NUGT at 39. currently about even but hoping to turn a profit soon.
 

Ronaldo7

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@Synergy: Hold TTWO. Grand Theft Auto is a massive success. It will continue to do well. There is always great expectation whenever a Grand Theft Auto game comes out. It should also be noted that it is the owner of the 2k franchises. NBA 2K is as big as GTA.

NOV is also a stock that has done well. Expect it to grow a lot more.

@AAAgent: TSLA is not a stock to be going into as a short-term. It has already hit 200 per share. It has grown by 338% in the last year. There has obviously been some setbacks regarding some models this year and have put the stock as a volatile option. We must remember that it has been this month that has been bad. The Model X is upcoming and will surely signal a return for TSLA. In the long run, TSLA is the way to go. I strongly suggest you hold your position here. Dependency on fossil fuel is slowly been exterminated and the electric auto technology will be the future.

http://moneymorning.com/2014/05/01/teslas-nasdaq-tsla-new-partnership-will-boost-sales-in-china/

There is also this. Expansion for such an innovative company like TSLA will be a major boost.
 

AAAgent

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@ronaldo - yeah TSLA was a bad move on my part. I was told to buy at 70, 100, 125 and i just kept thinking the valuation was off and wasn't convinced of the hype. Finally bought when i did and got out for a loss so i could have some cash.

BTCS - got in heavily in this penny stock. it owns the bitcoin name which should not be underestimated (i remember the stock that owned the TWTR name before Twitter IPO'ed went up about over 600% just because of the name). It's a big gamble but wit bitcoin making a gradual comeback and BTCS being one of the most established payment processors of Bitcoin, i'm thinking that this will double in the near future. I've also have a few friends in this who mentioned they now a few hedgefunds invested in this. I see this hitting 0.2's and if it keeps running maybe $1 (last run hit 0.4)......

ATVI - sold ATVI after my dividen payout at about $1 gain for share. Made a bit over a hundred :( but looking to get back in this back in june-august before the ride up end of Q3 (ATVI seems to always run around this time and they have a fantastic line up for the next 1.5 years).

NUGT - this 3x bull gold miners has made me tons of money. Currently down right now about 30% but this stock is VERY volatile so i'm not surprised. Still think i'm in cheap at $39 as the previous peak for gold drove this stock to $2k. I'm going to try to get in soon if i have the cash. I think gold is close to a bottom (who really knows but there has been strong resistance over the last year and i can't expect this resistance to last forever) ???
 

Ronaldo7

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Since the U.S. economy has improved, Gold has declined. The time to have bought Gold was early 2014. I wouldn't go for any gold-related stocks for now.
 

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http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HLF

I find all those Seeking Alpha articles as an hilarious attempt to cover losses by bears. Ackman has moved on while his minions struggle to clean up the pee stains he left on the couch.
 

Ronaldo7

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TSLA has hit 231 this week. If only people had listened to me when i told them to get in..... Musk is a king. Solar City, TSLA and Space X. New factory he had announced and the release of the Tesla patent to further develop electric cars to combat fuel-dependent vehicles. Nicola Tesla would be proud.
 

Ronaldo7

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Also, get on SCTY at 65. It's acquiring new companies and new plans for factories are ongoing. Musk is behind it and it is definitely a great stock.
 

AAAgent

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NUGT (gold) - has gone up about 50% in the last 2 weeks. Made a killing off of this and this swing trade this but at this point it might just be better to hold.

ATVI - has gone from 19 to 22.

TSLA - not in this anymore but this is up back to around 230's
 

Bible_Belt

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I agree. Those are the underlying reasons. Current events tend to be the catalyst that make the market realize them and move in that direction.

Plenty of investors go broke being logically correct, because human markets are by nature more emotional than logical. To make money, you need to be right, take the position, and then have all the other idiots realize that you were right in the first place.
 

Ronaldo7

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One has to be right and sit tight to wait for the idiots to catch up.

And then have all the other idiots realize that you were right in the first place.


Story of my life. Makes it even worse when you nicely try to tell them they are idiots. Trying to minimize the damage and they still can't see it.
 

synergy1

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A bit of a follow up on my holdings ( not that 6 months is worth considering)

Positives: My spinoff has done well, and I have added to the spun off company to my portfolio. A few of my other holdings have been on the increase lately ( Myriad genetics and GT advanced technologies) - and I have made good returns on them. But all it takes is a whiff of bad news or a "bad" Quarter, and that can go away. Thankfully I could care less about one bad quarter, as I care about multiple good years...which these companies will produce

Negatives: My investment in the for profit education. ESI has taken it to the chin. Thankfully my holdings here are minimal. Coach has also taken some hits, and is underpriced due to the fears of decreased customers and same store sales are on the decline. COH has a great balanace sheet and a long history, so I am considering to add while the price is cheap. Lastly I own several firearm companies ( RGR and Smith/ Wesson). RGR has been getting cheaper, and smith and wesson recently got a negative earnings "report" ( again take these with a grain of salt, the analysts are right 2/3 of the time, and in instances of multiple quarters in a row, almost 100% wrong). That said, strong companies with great balance sheets selling at a bargain.

Outlook: I am holding everything, even ESI. My only short term move is dumping Apollo education group (APOL) as I have a positive ROI on this, and I think the for profit education sector is going to take a tumble... I will hold GTAT, Myriad Genetics, and possibly add LQDT - liquidity services. They took a huge hit due to a government contract, and are a very well run company which is selling at a low P/E multiple. I have not done much research on them, which is why I have not purchased. Lastly, I keep some portfolio in cash so I can buy when some securities drop in price and become cheaper.

whew. That was longer post than I thought it was going to be.
 

synergy1

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Ronaldo7 said:
@Synergy: Hold TTWO. Grand Theft Auto is a massive success. It will continue to do well. There is always great expectation whenever a Grand Theft Auto game comes out. It should also be noted that it is the owner of the 2k franchises. NBA 2K is as big as GTA.

NOV is also a stock that has done well. Expect it to grow a lot more.

Since the NOV spinoff, the price of the parent dropped ( correspondingly) following the spinoff. The parent went from 80 per share to 70 $ per share...the parent is now BACK to 80$. Oh yeah, and for every 4 shares of NOV you owned, you now have a share of 30$ of their spinoff ( distribution NOW). Put another way, if you had 10,000 dollars worth of NOV stock, you would have basically made roughly 1000 dollars in the last two weeks doing NOTHING. (If you were a millionaire, and had 1,000,000$ in the parent, you would have made a nice 100,000 dollar salary in the past two weeks...**** haha)

TTWO - why the heck is this stock price such a low multiple? Great brand, great company, great balance sheets. Must be missing something here? Perhaps this is the general view of the industry by investors? Perhaps I shall dig..
 

AAAgent

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I've been wanting to get into DDD (3d printing) for a year now and still haven't. It's been on a crazy run the last 2 weeks up about 3-8% almost everyday.

NUGT still on the rise and have almost doubled my investment.

ATVI - sold this a while back high 20's but got my brother in this and he's doing really well. he got in mid 20's and it's low 22's.
 

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synergy1

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Stay out of 3D printing. It is no where near as revolutionary as the market believes. For one, its not overly robust. The material selection is limited at best, and metal printing is still very costly. The programs you need to run it ( CAD) have a steep learning curve and are also expensive. Currently, other processes such as CNC machining, casting, and the like are more established, cheaper, and are very accurate ( easily down to 0.0001 inches on ****ty CNC machines).

Now if there were cheap solutions to 3D printing of metals, I would leave my job and start a 3d printing consulting firm tomorrow. If you had cheap machines where you could load up CAD models which could do simple parts ( bolts, car parts etc), THAN you'd be onto something. For example, if a machine was less expensive than the current 3 or 5 axis CNC machines, and could produce parts just as quickly with less waste, than you'd be onto something...and I would open up shop and be a millionaire in a year or so ;)

Lets wait and see. Don't jump into 3D printing just yet. Its no where close to whats out there..
 

AAAgent

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kicking myself int he a$$ today for not getting into DDD. up 12% today and over 45% in the last 3 weeks.
 

Vice

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AAAgent said:
kicking myself int he a$$ today for not getting into DDD. up 12% today and over 45% in the last 3 weeks.
heh you regret not getting the triple D? ;)

Anyway silver (SLV or any other silver related ETF) is severely overbought and may be in for a nice correction soon.
 

AAAgent

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still holding

NUGT - got in 27 and it's now at 51. Sold all my other positions to consolidate into NUGT.

AAPL- averaged in at 92.9 and sold at 95.4

ATVI - got back in at 21.8 and sold at 22.4

MELY - held this sucker for way too long and was averaged in at 0.0024 and sold at 0.0026

Riding the gold wave, and suggest you guys to get on as well. gl to all.
 
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