Hey smart people I need help with a random math question

[backbreaker]

I got in a debate with my GF over something last night, long story short, I need to know the probability of picking a number between 1 and 7 11 times, and not picking the numbers 1, 2 and 3 any of those times.

 

[NorwegianDJ]

My calculator gave me a fcked up answer. It's REAALLY low probability. I think you solve it by doing 1/7 11 times.

 

[backbreaker]

I figured it out. (4/7) ^ 11 = .02%

 

[Teflon_Mcgee]

Your solution is only valid if each pick is completely independent and the probability of picking each number is uniformly distributed.

 

[backbreaker]

each pick is independent and yes it is.

my girl is a huge, huge, huge, huge, huge zenyatta fan. some of our biggest argument have been over zenyatta lol. so we got into a horse of the year debate last night while watching tv and i brought up a very little known fact, that before she won her first championships race, she had run 9 times, and had drew the inside post positions (1 through 3) 5 times, thats 55%. the avg field size is 7.

AFTER she won the first championship, she ran 11 times, same size fields, and she never drew positions 1 2 or 3. always 4 or higher which ironically help her running style, she's huge and doesn't like to be pinned in.


So i wanted to show her the probability of running 11 times, and never drawing posts 1 2 or 3 in a 7 horse field, its' about 1 in 500. My conclusion is that the connections uses their new found influence after the first championship to dictate the terms in which they would race and not scratch, one of those being post positions.