Fluffy said:
reason?
@backbreaker
How is my mindset off?
I wouldnt bet on horses it seems too risky, plus I dont have the time to follow it. I would bet on teamsports, I got them odds in my example from baseball.
The way that I look at it is to make money on sports you have to be willing to put fair amount on the line. I cant afford to, I am fairly risk averse. So I tried to think of a way to eliminate my risk whilst still having a fairly good return 20%+.
I do need a large outlay and i also need to pick a reasonable time frame, it wont work in a 2week period but over 6 months it will.
Also my method wouldnt need any prior knowledge of the sport so I can easily diversify.
I make more money on australain racing than I do in america... that's why I stay up so late.. the fields are bigger and I get better odds.
your mindset is off? Why? first of all.. how could you possibly comment on something you in the next sentence you admitted you know nothing about.
I've been following horses for 15 years, it's what I know. And the most beautiful thing that will always separate horse racing from any other sport, is PARA-MUTAL WAGERING.. what is that you might ask?
well, unlike baseball, basketball or casinos.. I'm not betting against the house.. I'm betting against the other dumb asses at the track.
Say a pool is 150k. At Hollywood park on W/P/S wagering, they get I think 19.8% of that pool off top.
The rest of the pool is distributed to the customers. the track doesn't give a flying fvck if I win, you win or who wins. they have gotten paid, and I'm not taking money out of their pockets.
But even better are the "dumb money" players.. players who bet birthdays, special dates whatever.. the more you bet on yOUR horse, the better the odds on MY horse are. that's why horse racing is sooo great to bet at. likewise, i ve been to casinos and I've visited the los vagas sports book.. they want you to gamble, but it's in their best interest that you loose.
if you ask me, that's ask backwards.
Turst me, I've been doing this for years. People who use formulas, people who try to make a number out of something that isn't a science, are fighting a loosing battle. There are too many things, factors, varibuls to make a forumla for anything betting related (at least outside the casino) to work.
another thing I never did understand about sportsbooks, is the damn odds you guys take and run with.
2-1? Under most circumtances, I don't even consider placing a bet if I can't get 7-1 on a horse.... and I win 33% my races.. do the math.. and I don't make small bets but even if I did, I would still be living pretty spiffy
of course that 's not set in stone but that's my guideline. I can wait all day for the overlay I'm looking for comes along. If I see a vonerable fav, an a horse I like at the ods I like, i make a bet, and then and only then. There are 10 tracks a day.. about 100 races a day... I don't watch all of themb ut you get the point. i have nothing but time.. where as in say, baseball, because of the odds, you are chasing money.
Jeff Siegl said it best.. "I never was of the mind to bet alot to get alittle"
same with pick 4...if I can't get a 50-1 return on my investment, I'm not betting. it's not a frantically sound investment. you see people jumping up and down, they hit a pick 4, but paid 100 dollars for the ticket and it paid a whopping 350.. i'm out. I normally stay out because very few opportunities come up like that... I'm not a fan of big horizontal tickets.. if I can single 2 of the 4 races and I think at least 1 of thoose 2 will be a price, I'll dive in.
look no father than hollywood park. Their pick 6's are so gigantic, I moved from little rock to Del mar.. among other things of course, but you have no idea.
someone won 120k Friday night on a 16 dollar ticket... but guys don't know where the money is, chasing thoose damn 2-1s in other sports.
today was not chump change.. 5.3k a bunch of people hit
I saw first hand a guy get cheated (the horse was pushed out the way down the stretch and loose by a nose) out of 850k about a month ago and his ticket I think was 110 bucks. he still got 5 out of 6 and got 5700 for that, but still.
I don't play pick 6's often, I'm waiting until the oak tree meet to really dive in.. this new surface, I'm sticking to what know best now (Churchill, arlington's, woodbine, golden gate, etc.. Santa Anita, aussie and I dab in harness).. new surfaces throw a money wrench into anything. But I hit one up at golden gate about 2 months ago that paid 15k and I think my ticket.. no I know my ticket couldn't have been 30 dollars. I had 3 of the races singled and the only reason I dove in it was because of a 90k carryover.
lol...
