Economy Tanking?

SmoothTalker

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So, I know at least some of you guys are involved in the financial markets.

WTF is going on today? Two major banks disappear, AIG, world's largest insurnace company is almost certainly going to fail this week, and that's not even mentioning all the other problems the economy had before.

The price of oil has collapsed and nobody is celebrating.

Maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic, but it seems to me that what's been said for years is finally happening. People have been saying that America's habits are unsustainable. America has dug its own grave, epic trade deficits, trillions of dollars in debt, mortgage meltdown, nobody has savings anymore, job growth has been weak, and on top of that there's still Iraq and Afganistan to pay for.

AAAAND on top of that, just wait for the baby boomers to start retiring. Not to mention what would happen if China and Russia dump their US reserves for fear of the risk and from being sick of losing value. That would annihalate the dollar.

Is this the start of the next depression?
 

oakraiderz2

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It scares the sh*t out of me. Being that im graduating in may with a degree in psych and 40g's worth of debt...i be sh*ttin squirrels.
 

toddlips

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These are indeed very scary times and America requires strong leadership. I just hope we all make the right choice this November.
 

3countriesPlan

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Things are looking real bad. The job market is horrible right now. As for politics, who cares I hate both parties. Look for opportunities abroad.
 

toddlips

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3countriesPlan said:
Things are looking real bad. The job market is horrible right now. As for politics, who cares I hate both parties. Look for opportunities abroad.
Whether you hate both parties or not, I would encourage you to vote - but only after educating yourself on each candidate. Voting is one of the only truly American things we have left, don't ignore it.
 

Darth

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SmoothTalker said:
Maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic, but it seems to me that what's been said for years is finally happening. People have been saying that America's habits are unsustainable. America has dug its own grave, epic trade deficits, trillions of dollars in debt, mortgage meltdown, nobody has savings anymore, job growth has been weak, and on top of that there's still Iraq and Afganistan to pay for.

AAAAND on top of that, just wait for the baby boomers to start retiring. Not to mention what would happen if China and Russia dump their US reserves for fear of the risk and from being sick of losing value. That would annihalate the dollar.

Is this the start of the next depression?
Yes.

Spot on. It may be pessimistic, but unfortunately it is realistic. We've been digging the hole for the last twenty years. It's only starting to hit us now.

But yes, we'll have a depression at best. World War III and the fall of America at worst (if China turns on us. Think about it. They have all of our money. They make all of our products now. We don't produce anything. They're building their military and buying weapons specifically designed to shoot down American aircraft).

We're in big trouble. I just hope whoever's president at the time knows how to handle it. Unfortunately both candidates running right now are economic idiots.

So yeah, we're in trouble.
 

slickaz

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that country is in the ish already..and its been coming for so long now.

in 10 years it went from being a country of legend and the whole world revolved around what the US did. big economy, big growth etc to absolutely nothing...id be ver surprised if they can save the effect of this drop within the next 3 years. i hope they can.. but the govt took a perfect gem and sh4t on it!
even China is doing better than we are..EU is strong, Moscow is one of the fastest growing mega cities. and hong kong's financial system is looked upon more than wall st now..i sincerely hope the US will rebound.

they should leave iraq and afghanistan and just get back home to develop home instead of other countries..coz once thats done.neither iraq nor afgh is going to give ANY thing back..



I watched a documentary where they were comparing the USA to ancient Rome.

where Rome was the most powerful of the world, its economy was beyond its time and it looked invincible in everyway...then it never fell..it just dissolved and fell apart.
i think he was comparing how rome also dependended on military strenght, but not able to enlist enough people it moved to hiring barbarians to fight, just like the US hires military contractors and warlords...
history does repeat itself..but i guess we have the option to change it by picking our next leaders properly..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/romans/empiresofabsentmind_article_01.shtml
 

speakeasy

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Darth said:
Yes.

Spot on. It may be pessimistic, but unfortunately it is realistic. We've been digging the hole for the last twenty years. It's only starting to hit us now.

But yes, we'll have a depression at best. World War III and the fall of America at worst (if China turns on us. Think about it. They have all of our money. They make all of our products now. We don't produce anything. They're building their military and buying weapons specifically designed to shoot down American aircraft).

We're in big trouble. I just hope whoever's president at the time knows how to handle it. Unfortunately both candidates running right now are economic idiots.

So yeah, we're in trouble.
I think most of these doom and gloom opinions go way overboard. We have lost a lot of our manufacturing base, but that doesn't mean we don't make anything. We make airplanes, we still have some of the largest automanufacturers in the world despite their troubles, we still make computer chips and technology, we export a LOT of agriculture, we're way ahead of most the world on medical/pharmaceutical technology and research. And fortunately or unfortunately depending on what side of the political aisle you're on, we are major manufacturer of military hardware.

As for China, they are a rising star as you could see with the Olympics, but trust me if we were hurting with $100+ a barrel oil, they damn sure were too. They are still a 3rd world country and don't even come close to us in standard of living once you get outside places like Hong Kong and Beijing. Their depend heavily on our consumer spending so it's not like they are going to keep humming along fine while the rest of the world is in the crapper. Their airforce and navy have quite a long way to go to catch up with us. We will dominate them military-wise for quite some time to come. They do have a lot of our debt, which sucks and the bastards that got us in this predicament should be thrown in jail, but they're probably sh*ting bricks over it more than we are. I mean imagine lending someone billions of dollars and then the guy files bankruptcy. Who really got screwed?

I think once this housing and credit mess runs it's course, we'll be okay in the long run. What we need to focus on is paying down the debt and cutting spending. I think Obama will be a LITTLE better than McCain on this because he will at least raise the taxes to pay for things, rather than just keep borrowing from the Chinese. But I don't expect either of them to do much cutting of spending. And if Obama can deliver on his promise to get America off of foreign oil in 10 years, then awesome, because that's the next big problem we face. Too much dependence on people that hate our guts for energy. Iceland and Brazil are energy independent because they had the foresight to invest in renewable energy before we got to this point. Now they don't need a drop of oil from anyone. Why nobody thought of doing this here years ago I have no idea.

My view is cautiously optimistic. This country has gotten through much worse and we're still here. I think we'll be okay in the long run though these next few years are gonna suck no matter who is elected.


Also - those that keep mentioning the dollar tanking, don't know if you've been paying attention, but the dollar has been rallying like crazy this last half year. Which in part is why oil is tanking every day.
 

SmoothTalker

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Definitely agreed that the US needs to quit wasting time and money 'nation building'.

I have noticed the dollar rallying actually, though to be honest I'm at a loss as to why, as things have gotten worse since its initial decline rather than better. Same for the markets today.. I really doubt the declines are over, but US markets did pretty much better than anywhere else in the world today.

Lets leave McCain/Obama out of this as we all know what happens to political threads, and I don't want this locked.

I don't think the US is quite finished yet, but there are definitely SEVERE longterm challanges. Even when the credit mess is sorted out, there's still the loss of manufacturing and baby boomers to deal with. Another thing is North American's (but specifically American's) terrible attitude towards education. Yes, you still have some of the worlds best universities, but most of the students going there aren't even Americans. Check out the enrollment statistics for Berkeley for example, about 60% Asians I think. The average American has no respect for education even though its more important than ever in today's world. You lead technologically now, but give it a few years. More engineers graduate in China EVERY YEAR than there are engineers in Canada in total. Hell even if they're half as good, the sheer combined brainpower will dwarf us.
 

speakeasy2

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SmoothTalker said:
I have noticed the dollar rallying actually, though to be honest I'm at a loss as to why, as things have gotten worse since its initial decline rather than better.
It has to do with Europe's economy. The US can be in bad shape, but if Europe's economy is in the crapper too, the comparative difference is the same, so the dollar isn't going to slide vs the Euro. Fiat currencies have no inherent value other that what people think they are worth. When oil was on the rise, people took money out of the dollar to put it in oil and other commodities and we saw commodities explode. Now that the the commodities bubble has popped, that money is going back into dollars and the dollar is getting a boost. So far the gains seem to be holding, we'll see.

I don't think the US is quite finished yet, but there are definitely SEVERE longterm challanges. Even when the credit mess is sorted out, there's still the loss of manufacturing and baby boomers to deal with. Another thing is North American's (but specifically American's) terrible attitude towards education. Yes, you still have some of the worlds best universities, but most of the students going there aren't even Americans. Check out the enrollment statistics for Berkeley for example, about 60% Asians I think. The average American has no respect for education even though its more important than ever in today's world. You lead technologically now, but give it a few years. More engineers graduate in China EVERY YEAR than there are engineers in Canada in total. Hell even if they're half as good, the sheer combined brainpower will dwarf us.
I agree with you. I think there's an anti-intellectual culture in the U.S. and we're slowly becoming a nation of idiots.
 

Truman181

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And how do you propose to vote for a guy who isn't even on the ticket?
It's called a write in. Now some may say that would be wasting my vote. I disagree. I think wasting my vote would be me voting for someone that I don't want to be President and in this case, that's both of the mainstream candidates.

The dollar has actually been rallying this year.
Short term gains. Google "The Amero". It's coming.

Tax and spend sounds more reasonable than borrow and spend. Even Alan Greenspans, no liberal came out and said last weekend that McCain's tax plain will be worse for the economy.
Tax and spend IS better than borrow and spend. I'll give you that one. Either way, it's bad news. Less spending is needed. I say bring the troops home and get rid of frivolous government spending at home. Obama wants to do the former, McCain the latter. Unfortunately, neither will do both.

From the rich. Those guys that make more in 1 week than most of us make in a year. Those guys who bankrupt companies like Merryl Lynch and get $60 million dollar golden parachutes. They will pay for it. They should. They've looted the country long enough.
The rich already pay 80 percent of all the taxes collected in this country. Remember the American Dream that we were all taught growing up? Work hard and some day you can make a decent income. Now that slogan has become "work hard so the government can tax you and support the welfare state".

More misinformation. He is not going to enact a single pay France style healthcare system. If you already have a health care plan you are happy with, you can keep it. But for the people who can't afford to get insurance they will get assistance. People in America forget that what is the NORM is all other industrial capitalist countries, like Japan for example is considered socialism here. Nobody would say Japan is anything but a capitalist country, probably more than we are, but nobody there is allowed to die because they can't afford insurance. Why do Americans reject the same for themselves?
People SHOULD have healthcare. No doubt about it. People SHOULD have a roof over their heads and other necessities...But that doesn't mean they are ENTITLED to it. Granted some people are truly needy and deserving of assistance, others milk the system dry.

That might be an exagerration. He wants to roll back Bush's tax cuts on the wealthy to where they were under Clinton. Calling it the greatest tax cut in history might be a bit hyperbolic. It also misleads people a bit. 95% of the population(that is those of us making under $250,000 a year) will see their taxes reduced under Obama, much more than will be under McCain. Obama will raise them dramatically on people making over $650,000 a year who you might call "the wealthy". I think there is so much ignorance and misinformation that McCain has spread around about Obama's tax plan to scare the average little guy when all they have to do is just go to Obama's website and see for themselves. Half the country still thinks Obama is going to raise their taxes even though Obama has said upteen times only the wealthy are having their taxes raised. Which is 5% of the country. And that doesn't bother me given that 95% of America's wealth is head by 5% of the population. Just must be as bad an income gap as Mexico.
I can't really argue with that. However, I still think that we would be better off with less government spending in the first place.
 

speakeasy

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Truman181 said:
It's called a write in. Now some may say that would be wasting my vote. I disagree. I think wasting my vote would be me voting for someone that I don't want to be President and in this case, that's both of the mainstream candidates.
That's cool. I don't believe people have to vote in every election. I didn't vote in 2004 because I didn't like either candidate.



Short term gains. Google "The Amero". It's coming.
I don't believe that'll happen. Plus Mexico's currency would have to be in the neighborhood of Canada's and the U.S. The peso is about 1/10 of the USD/CAD. So it's not like the US/CA would get any benefit from adding MX to the currency. Just like Europe doesn't want to add Turkey or some poorer E. European countries.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amero.asp


The rich already pay 80 percent of all the taxes collected in this country. Remember the American Dream that we were all taught growing up? Work hard and some day you can make a decent income. Now that slogan has become "work hard so the government can tax you and support the welfare state".
The rich did quite well under Clinton. Warren Buffet, America's 2nd richest man after Bill Gates even admitted that he pays less in taxes as a percentage of his wealth than his secretary. If you've ever read that book, The Millionaire Next Door, you'll see that one of the keys to getting wealthy is putting wealth into tax-free havens. So someone like Buffet may pay a huge amount in income tax, but his actual wealth is spread around in ways that reduce his tax burden and corporate lawyers find all kinds of loopholes to lessen corporate taxes. So in the end despite his billions, he admits he's paying less in tax(percentage-wise) than his secretary. There's entire books written on the subject of corporations rigging the system to their advantage. Giving money to lobbyist to get special favors from the government and all kinds of corruption. We look at a country like Mexico and think, wow, their politicians are bought off by a corrupt wealthy oligarchy while everyone else is poor. But you know what, it's not really any different here. The difference is that the button mark of the tide is higher. The poor person here might be like the middle class there, but the dynamic is the same. People complain about welfare and think of some black woman with 3 kids sitting on the couch, but the biggest welfare offenders are mega corporations getting bailed for their irresponsible behavior to the tune of billions with taxpayer money. Then you companies like Halliburton basically getting blank checks from the government. But say "welfare" to most people and they don't think corporations who get by the biggest chunk of welfare, they think of someone getting food stamps to eek out a meager, miserable existence. I dunno, I guess you and I just have a different take on the wealth class, we're all entitled to our views. I'm not anti-capitalist at all, I'd just like to return to the way it used to be, like back in the 50s where a CEO might have made 10x his employee, but now it's like 1000x his employee. The wealthy have seen their wealth grow under the last decade, while the middle class has taken a paycut. When adjusted for inflation, if you are middle class, on average, you make less now than you did 10 years ago. I just feel like the middle class is taking in the behind right now.


People SHOULD have healthcare. No doubt about it. People SHOULD have a good job, a nice place to live, spending money in their pockets. People SHOULD have a lot of things. But that doesn't mean they are ENTITLED to it. Granted some people are truly needy and deserving of assistance, others milk the system dry.
Well, people once said the same of public education and social security for seniors. We now regard these things as the norm and something any decent, humane society would do, give kids an education and make sure seniors are eating catfood to survive. Well at one time in our history these were seen as radical changes just the way we currently view national healthcare. 100 years ago, you might have went to work in some factory as a kid because your parents couldn't afford to send you to school. If you were old to work, then you better have some kids paying your expenses because there's no one to help you out. Now we can't imagine living in that kind of society. I think in this regards, we're behind the curve on Europe and other industrial nations. They look at us and can't believe the people are left to die if they can't afford healthcare. I'm sure one day it'll happen here to, we're just behind the curve. And people will view national healthcare the same as we now view public-funded education for kids...as something any decent society would do for its citizens, not some sort of "handout". The mindset will change eventually.


I can't really argue with that. However, I still think that we would be better off with less government spending in the first place.
You know, that's what every politician says, but when they're sitting there with the red pen in hand deciding what they are going to cut, that's the tough part. Cut any one thing, and the next day you've made millions of enemies who now want to vote you out. Cut something else and you've now pissed off your campaign contributers who got you into office. It's a mess all around. I hope one of these candidates can solve it, but I'm not holding my breath.
 

Taviii

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Don't worry guys, you can always come to Europe and work for us along with the Africans and the Asians.
 

Truman181

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Don't worry guys, you can always come to Europe and work for us along with the Africans and the Asians.
At least we still have a COUNTRY left Mister EU. :moon:
 

Paradox

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Most of the time when we have economic discussions we have to talk about specific countries. Political conversations are not allowed though.

Fighting over American presidential candidates projected economic policies will not be allowed

Since this thread is about the current American economy please keep this in mind when posting.

Can we keep this discussion limited to the current American economy, banks, other financial institutions, bailouts, other countries and their economic policies?
 

womann

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Those who have no debt: INVESTMENT AND BARGAIN-HUNTING TIME!

Everyone is jumping ship. The only way to make (quick-rich scheme) money is to do the opposite of what everyone else does. I.E. buy when they sell, sell when they buy. Consequently, those who have good credit and little to no debt should buy like there's no tomorrow as good times will roll again. The market always goes up and down. The U.S. culture states individuality is king. So do the opposite of what everyone else does.
 

A-Unit

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Re:

Too Big to Fail.

I'm very close to AIG and its workings, as I deal in the financial services marketplace. Personally, I have no allegiance to any company and aside from the obvious loss of wealth for millions, I'm laughing my way to making more purchases and was hoping the whole thing circled the drain.

It hasn't. Yet. It may still. It's a house of cards.

But the reason AIG was "saved", thus far, was because it's TOO BIG TO FAIL. Isn't the only thing TOO BIG TO FAIL the government? Should it not be a concern when a company is SO big it cannot be allowed to fail? Does this not go against everything capitalism is based on? "Rollerball" anyone? (Google it if you don't know).

AIG has its hand in everything and nearly a TRILLION dollars in assets. Their near failure was not a failure in business operations, but a lack of operating cash flow in the short-term. Bad bets in the credit default swap market resulted in greater losses. Plus, hurricane after hurricane, combined with the CDS payoffs, resulted a in a BIG short-term cash pull.

The Government has a 79% Stake in AIG.

That's a first. I don't even know how to take it. The government has 80% of the AIG stock. They actually OWN a publicly traded company. What now?

The Economy.

6 out of the last 8 years have been SEVERE busts in several markets, and also booms. The largest run-up in the commodities market. One of the most frantic Stock Market cycles. And a RE/mortgage market that hit such fictional levels, Jim Cramer had to periodically make himself look like a fool and heritic until people noticed the truth in his words.

They have been VERY speculative years. Compared to your grandparents, who were BUY and HOLDERs of solid companies, and then woke up rich (AT&T, UPS, COCA COLA, DISNEY, GE, MMM, etc) our current and previous generation were rampant speculators, built on greed. It reminds me of Charlie Sheen vs Michael Sheen in "Wall Street."

Gecko created nothing. Before he was arrested, Charlie (Buddy) didn't either. His father did. He created and maintained safe planes, and while he wasn't rich, he had the respect of his co-workers, he impacted MORE people positively than Gordon Gecko did, and he had his honor; didn't sell his soul.

Our prior and current generation doesn't CREATE much of anything. We sell ideas, we push paper, take orders, and middle manage everything. School has wrung the entrepreneur out of kids that would effectively sell candy or lemonade or newspapers. The purpose of EDUCATION (not school) is to CREATE independent thinkers and operators, not canned, rote, programmed, children who are so alike, unless they are sent to the principals office, you don't know they are rebellious or different.

College is no different. Only the elite schools teach a program different in philosophy than the business schools, state, community, and expensive private colleges. Just because it's 40k/year to go, doesn't mean the 4 years of education is teaching a person to be INDEPENDENT or even the learn financial concepts people need to grasp our economy. I know. I know some who went to the best. If you don't care about your independence, that which our founding father's had in mind, NO ONE does.

Wall Street have some of the best and brightest, and all that proved to me is, PhD and MBAs aren't smarter than the masses and are probably twice as greedy. Moreover, they don't care about people, they care about adherence to a system, versus people. They may have "people" skills with regard to manipulation and sales, but they don't have a compassionate nature that puts PEOPLE over IDEAS and PROFITS.

------------------------------------

I hope Generation Y wakes up. READ. READ. READ. Disbelieve all schooling. ****, the government owns it. They are effectively telling you WHAT you should know. The founding father's had no place for that, since the founding father's were largely self taught and more responsible at younger ages than our current generation.

Work to being entirely self sufficient. Unplug from the schooling, government, and corporate matrix which makes everything disposable and puts you in constant competition to keep up with the joneses. Advertising using optimal women in their child rearing years to delude people into thinking ALL women should be this way. Then porn degrades women into 3 holes and a pile of pleasurable flesh, not a living, breathing, thing, capable of far greater activities than simple sexual pleasure (sex with a good, healthy confident woman is incomparable).

Dump thought systems. All they do is preclude the spontaneity of life. They make your decision for you, before anything has taken root or action. We are better than this. Thought systems are for robots, not FREE THINKERS.

Save. Save. Save. I know RDPD espouses not being cheap, but that doesn't mean you have to be a voracious consumer, who buys new crap he/she won't fully use. Not being cheap means, not skimping when you fly, if the difference means a better flight over long distances. Or skimping where the opportunity cost is great. He doesn't mean buy doodads you won't ever use.

I'm preaching, but I've been around the block, and consulted with hundreds of our country folk through finance.

Our generation is being lead astray because they are asleep, and so are their parents.
 

SmoothTalker

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Well, seems the collapse has resumed today. I guess there were some bargain hunters out yesterday to bring the markets up again, but they've either thought better or been overpowered today.

Just out of curiosity, what happens when a regular bank (not investment) fails. I know your deposits are insured, but what about loans? If you have a car loan from a bank that still has money owning, and the bank completely fails, are you off the hook? Who do you pay it to if you keep paying?
 

GQ_Confidence_1

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You have to step back from the sitation, before you start believing...we'll all be in soup lines, it's going to take $1,000,0000,0000 to buy a loaf of bread, 20% unemployment, etc.

Look at a chart of the DOW over the last 20-30 years. The crash of 87, the crash of 90/91 (the banks went bust), the 98 crash, the tech bubble crash, etc.

I think the key to remember is wall street's fear is different than the man on the streets everyday fear.

What do you remember about life in 87? Life went on, people listened to music, etc.

What do you remember about 1990? 92? Life went on. I was in middle school in 92. Teachers got paid. Life went on.

98? Tech bubble? Nasdaq going from 5,000 to 2,000?

Life trickles on throughout it. Don't get sucked into the extremism. The American economy and way of life has so much momentum, it doesn't turn overnight.

WHat you hear on tv isn't an accurate picture of the country. They try to contort the country into a single headline or phrase. The country is too varied. It'd be like going to the mall, and seeing all the stores, the people, the hustle and bustle, the variety of people, and trying to contort it down to something finite. The world is not as finite as the media makes it out to be.

The more I think about it, most of what's talked about in the economy in the media is filler, it's empty. They talk about "terrible" presidents, Nixon, or something, Carter. But what was going on in 74 or 80? What were your parents doing? Life went on.

And the differences between now and 29?

-We have a much higher standard of living. More safety nets in place.

-The govt is stupid, but I dont think they're going to make the same mistakes as they did then.

I agree with the analogy of wall street....martin sheen vs gecko. The era of ibanking, "hedgies", $100 mil wall street whizes, it's over. It's not going to be true for todays 22 year olds.

Also, if you read books like Guns, Germs and Steel, there are other reasons why Zimbabwe or Angola, are the way they are. And why some countries are poor. American entreprenuerialism and capitalism is too ingrained for it to disappear overnight.

Deprogram yourself from school brainwashing, corporate propaganda, fear, govt propaganda, etc.

Critical thinking is a crucial skill.

For example, "they" constantly tell you, no one can beat the market, so don't try. But, why were people buying Lehman stock at $40 or $80, and now it's worth .002? Why would anyone buy stock in a company that did foolish things?

"They" push technical analysis and fundamental analysis to analyze companies. But if a company did obviously stupid things, what more would you learn from technical analysis or the fundamentals?

If you're a real estate investor and you bought a lot of homes that are now going bust, what good would it do you to analyze your past purchases? Or the volume of purchases? Or look at some ratio.

It's all stupidity, none of it is real. I'd read Jim Rogers for a good truthful take on the economy. And question everything. Nothing what "they" tell you is the truth.
 

SmoothTalker

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I have to disagree for the most part. Yes of course the media is sensationalist, but things are much worse than you seem to think.

While you bring up the tech bubble, that really wasn't that bad. In fact, that's part of the problem, the landing was far too soft because of the 1% interest rates and the skyrocketing real estate values that created the illusion of growth. (Economy growing from people spending money they don't have).

This time around we don't have either of those things to soften the blow, and the world economy as a whole is slow, which isn't helping. Not to mention at that time the country didn't have two wars to pay for.
 
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