Breeders Cup.. I'm going to give you free money

[backbreaker]

hanks blueblue, but is this BB's recomendation too?

Yes I said last night cut kip deville.. 1. he hasn't seen a turf as yeilding as he is going ot see tomorrow, AND he has a swolen leg.

Replace Kip with Excellent Art

 

[backbreaker]

I didn't have Maryfield (wtf?) but there's no way in hell I would have bet on Dream Rush or La Travatia in that race. I saw that pace duel coming a mile away and those two did exactly what I thought they would. Surely you considered it to be a possibility.

It's a 6 Furlong sprint.. what else could they possibly do? They aren't goign to plot for 5 furlongs then gun it.

Every one of Dream Rush's races she's been pressed. And I've bet against her a couple of times and come up on the short end becuase she's held off contendors... and every race, she ould get 22 and change (which is flying), 45 and change (which is fast) and win in about 1:07 which would have won this race in hand.

21 and 1 and 44 flat is almost 2 seconds faster than she wanted to go to begin the race.

The deal is.. could have lost? Sure. she ovbiously did. But my thing is, if you run this race 10 times, Dream Rush will win at least half of them IMHO. The only other viable play financially for me would have been

Oprah Winney at 15 to 1
maryfield at 20 to 1


Both won the race, but both would be long term loosers if that makes any sense. it's fools gold, at leat IMHO.

Out of curosity, who DID you have?

I don't treat spritns as routes... if this were a mile I would have had Oprah Winney at 6 to 1, but I don't think you can think of a sprint that isn't a speedball duel. that is what seperates grade 1 sprinters from claimers. te ability to carry speed for a mile and 8 seconds

 

[ketostix]

Alright thanks BB. Here's what I got so far.

-race 4 (Sat. 12:30). $8 (9) Smarty Deb.
-race 5 (Sat. 1:10). $8 (13) Wicked style
-race 8 (Sat. 3:30) . $8 (13) Excellent Art pass if below 4 to 1
-race 9 (Sat. 4:05, Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup) $8 (12)Hyestericalady


Pick 3:
Race 4: (9) Smarty Deb
Race 5: (13) Wicked style
Race 6: (2)Honey Ryder (4)Passage of Time

Pick 4:
Race 8: (13) Excellent Art
Race 9: (12) Hystericalady
Race 10: (7) Dylan Thomas
Race 11: (9)Tiago (4)Curlin (5)George Washington


race 4 superfecta:
1st place: (9)Smarty Deb
2nd place: (4)Indian Blessing (8)Izarra
3rd place: (10)Proud Spell
4th place: (6)Set Play


Do you think this looks good or should I make changes?

 

[backbreaker]

No, the pick 3, Talk of Ekati should be Wicked Style. Espically seeing what Eibar Coa did today on Dream Rush

race 8 (Sat. 3:30) . $8 (13) Excellent Art/QUOTE]

if this is below 4 to 1, pass the race, but I dont' think it will be.

 

[backbreaker]

With the ground being what it is it definatly adds another fector into the mixture. For the most part, I try not to overcompliate things, a good horse is a good horse. you can sometimes overcomplicate things where you loose focus on who is just a better horse, so I normally don't make many adjustments, however some are to the point where you have ot take notice.

In the 5th Race tomorrow, Slew's Tiznow's sire line is Tiznow/Cee's Tizy/relaunch, which is one of the most mud loving/off track pedigrees I know. They love mud, rain, crackers, jello, it doesn't matter... they will run on it. I dont' know about a win bet, but if I were you, I wuold include him on my pick 3 with Wicked Style.

I saw LP3 was doing the Breeders cup trophy presentation for ESPN. Not only is he Lafit Pincay Jr's son (The 2nd most winning jockey of all time), he's an assocatie of mine out in SoCal. Gets more ass than any guy I know (he tapped my GF before I came into the picture) and he can't be taller than 5'5, and that's being generous. Good looking guy, and is a future superstar in broadcasting.

speaking of, I'm sure you are going to be tempted to listen to the people on TV.. don't. Hank Goldberg hasn't won a race since i can remmeber him going back, they pick nothing but chalk and then justify it because they are chalk.

For crying out loud Randy Moss said he likes Laywer ron because he expectes him to sit right off the lead and then make a late move when 1) he hasn't won a race tat far in his life 2) the trainer said for a fact he wasn't going to hold him back, because he doesn't like to be held back

 

[ketostix]

Ok I made the changes.

 

[backbreaker]

and just forgot tat entire last post, as Slew's Tiznow was just scratched with a fever.

now you see why I don't get out at night

 

[Celadus]

After reading all this I have enough confidence in you to get up early tomorrow and drive to Retama Park for the races.

I think I'm going to copy Ketos picks. Seems like he did a good job of deciphering all your advice.

You mentioned we should wait until a few minutes to place a bet on certain races. What are the chances of getting stuck in a line and not getting a bet in in time? Do they have computers in the simulcast rooms or is it a counter like the sports book in Vegas casinos?

 

[backbreaker]

Retma park.. one track I have never been to. That or Sam Houston. I've been to Lone star a couple of times whenI was bored in arkansas.

Curlin's half brother races down there, he's not that good. raced in a low level claimer about a week and a half ago

" I think I'm going to copy Ketos picks."

He nailed them.

What are the chances of getting stuck in a line and not getting a bet in in time?

First you need to scout which line is the shortest and keep 3 in mind in case one gets packed. Wait until there are 10 mintues left. there isn't a line long enoguh in the midwest unless on derby day, where you can't make a bet in 10 mintues.

Do they have computers in the simulcast rooms or is it a counter like the sports book in Vegas casinos?

some do, some don't.. do it the old fashion way.. I don't trust thoose computers. after 2 or so bets it doesn't take long. I can make a 500 dollar bet in about 20 seconds.

After reading all this I have enough confidence

lol, trust me when i say I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

Even if they don't pan out, I know all of the picks I choose are sound bets, and if you make sound finaically sound bets over a long period of time you have no chance but to come out on top. that's what it's all about.

I would be shocked, I really would, if none of hyesterialady, Wicked Style, ,Execellet ARt, Smart Deb or Tiago didn't come in. I really would

and after reading the horse racing forums, I'm not the only one sky high on smarty deb

 

[Suicide]

Out of curosity, who DID you have?

I don't treat spritns as routes... if this were a mile I would have had Oprah Winney at 6 to 1, but I don't think you can think of a sprint that isn't a speedball duel. that is what seperates grade 1 sprinters from claimers. te ability to carry speed for a mile and 8 seconds

I had some money on Miraculous Miss but she didn't win, either. Had she been a little quicker I would be a rich man right now!

Even if I had more faith in Dream Rush and La Traviata, it would have been a waste of money to bet them anyway at the odds they went off with; unless they were on the bottom of an exotic.

 

[Suicide]

And looking at that track today, I am more and more convinced that Octave will sweep the Distaff with room to spare. I hope her odds hold up,
though.

And I'll put some money on hystericalady too so I won't feel so bad if you're right

 

[backbreaker]

I had some money on Miraculous Miss but she didn't win, either. Had she been a little quicker I would be a rich man right now!

she figured. I can see how you went with that

Even if I had more faith in Dream Rush and La Traviata, it would have been a waste of money to bet them anyway at the odds they went off with; unless they were on the bottom of an exotic.

you are mistaken me saying that they should win for me saying to BET on them. God no! Not at thoose odds. Although dream rush got interesting for a mintue. had she slipped to 5 to 1 I might have taken a stab

I have no opinions that strong that a tote board can't change them. If I woke up tomorow and lawyer ron was 20 to 1, i'd be a lawyer ron fan.

And looking at that track today, I am more and more convinced that Octave will sweep the Distaff with room to spare. I hope her odds hold up,
though.

something else to keep in mind.. she's a 3YO going up against a 4YO. alotof peopel don't remember or realize that.

Also, Hyestericalady won in the slop, the true slop, not an off track, a HORID track at churchill and won in hand going away, she is going to be fine

I'm going to show exactly what my bets are going to be for tomorrow, just so you can see what I'm betting. I'm not going to put the amounts bet, but you get the picture

I'm still going over allmy bases, making sure I have dotted all my eyes and crossed my tess, because i have a hell of alot of money on hte line tomorrow, and I don't leave anything to chance.

Race 1: Slew's Tizzy to win if drifts upwards of 6 to 1
Daily Double with Slews Tizzy / Silver Knockers CocoBelle in 2nd race


Race 4: Smarty Deb to win. Putting to much money on her to mess around with anything else

Race 5: Wicked Style to win assuming stays above 7 to 1
Exacta with Wicked Style on top/Pryo or Z Humor on the bottom
Trifecta With Wicked Style on top/ Pryo or Z humor 2nd o/ Pyro, Z humor, War Pass and Overextended in 3rd (trying to hit a lick)

Race 6: Lahudood to win (2 win tickets)
(I like honey ryder to win as well but not at the odds she is going to bring)

Race 7: Kelly's Landing to win
Superfecta withh kelly's Landing/Benny the Bull/Midnight Lute/ Greg's Gold

Race 9:Hystericalady
Exacta with Hystericalady/Balance on the bottom
Trifecta with Hystericalady/Balance 2nd/Lear's Princess 3rd

Race 10: (Shamdinan)

Race 11: Tiago to win


Pick 3:

Race 4: (Smarty Deb)
Race 5: (Wicked Style)
Race 6: (Honey Ryder)(All My loving) (Lahudood)

Pick 4

Race 8Excellent Art )
Race 9: (Hystericalady)
Race 10: (Dylan Thomas )
Race 11: (Tiago) (Curlin) (George Washington)

Pick 6

Race 6: (All My Loving)(All My Loving)(Nashoba's Key) (Nashoba's Key)(Lahudood)

Race 7: (Kelly's Landing) (Commentator) (Midnight Lute) (Greg's Gold)

Race 8: (Excellent Art )

Race 9: (Hystericalady)

Race 10: (Dylan thomas) (Shamdinan)

Race 11: (George Washington (Curlin) (Tiago)


Okay, let me somewhat explain what I"m doing.

 

[backbreaker]

she probably won't win, but Lahudood's odds cut in half when it's a soft course, she has beaten world class fillies on very soft turf, and at 20 to 1 and will be difting up, I can't not put a win ticket in. again, covering your bases.. and just imagine if in a pick 6 she hits off and I haveit. half hte field is already done if not 80%

Shamdinan also won a grade 1 on very very soft turf this year. had to inlcude im as well although I would be shocked if Dylan thomas lost

Balance is naother filly that will apprciate the fast dirt track, something she doesn't have in socal. last year she was considered the best filly in the country. At 20 to 1, a Hysericalady / balance exacta could buy a nice bottle of wine

 

[ketostix]

Well should I change my pick 3 and pick 4 to reflect your choices BB lol, or just leave them be? I notice you have Curlin in to win race 11 in your pick 3 and pick 4. I thought you said that horse was out from a swollen leg?

 

[backbreaker]

mine IS the same as yours, or at least it should be lol

I did what I did for my pick 4 what I told you to do, to have...****.. you are right, thanks man I can't believe I did that. it should have been George Washington instead of Street Sense.

I am placing a WIN bet on Tiago. but in my pick 4, either George Washington, Curlin or Tiago can win, your ticket should be the same.

Unless you want to spend $240 bucks on a pick 6 ticket that probably for one reason or another isnt' going to hit, leave the pick 6 alone. the only reason I'm playing it is that it's a 3 million dollar guaranteed, which means if I am the only ticket that hits, I'd make about 1.8 million

on your budget, leave Lahudood, kelly's landing and (Shamdinan) out.. I mean you can play them but I dont' feel AS strong about them. if you had to play 1 play kelly's landing. But I'm trying to hit home runs here on a day when I know the pools are going to be HUGE.

all of them figure in on way or another, but you have to make te best BET..all have shown a love for off tracks and all come off good races with good form that show they can do somethihng here today.

On a normal day, I might make 4 bets, and that's covering every track in the country. Because tere is more moeny in the pools I'm trying to get as much of it as I can

 

[backbreaker]

Well should I change my pick 3 and pick 4 to reflect your choices BB lol, or just leave them be? I notice you have Curlin in to win race 11 in your pick 3 and pick 4. I thought you said that horse was out from a swollen leg?

No, Kip Deville in Race 8 is the one with the swollen leg. Curlin actually looks fantastic

 

[ketostix]

Ok I get what you're saying, you're willing to take more risk and potentially lose to get a big gain. I changed my pick 4 for race 11 to the same as yours. Should I change my pick 3 to yours for race 6, or just leave it? So you think my horses look good in the races? I'm about to start putting in my bets.

 

[st_99]

Breeders Cup Juvenile

this is a 2 Million dollar race for 2 Year Old Colts and Geldings over a mile and a 16th on the dirt


11 Dixie Chatter 10-1
8 Globalization 20-1
3 Kodiak Kowboy 8-1
9 Old Man Buck 20-1
6 Overextended 50-1
7 Pyro 6-1
12 Salute the Sarge 12-1
5 Shore Do 30-1
4 Slew?s Tiznow 15-1
10 Tale of Ekati 7-2
2 War Pass 5-2
13 Wicked Style 10-1
1 Z Humor 12-1

Oh man.. this is going to be a great race.

Pyro, War Pass, Z Humor, Wicked Style, Tale of Ekati or Slew?s Tiznow can all win it.

I love war pass. I think he ist he most talented 2YO in the coutnry. I cashed in on him earlier this month.. even made a post about it.

But.. now I have to diss him. His last race I didn't like he looked closing out at ALL.. he didn't look too good in the end, like he was tired, and he isn't going to find an easier pace than he had that race and he's going father. can't take 5 to 2.

I'm not sold on Tale of Ekati. I just dont' think he's beaten anyone and didn't look that great doing it.

Pyro is going to be the Wiseguy's choice.. he was catching up to War pass in the last race and would have passed him. will relish the extra distance.

I'm going to go with Wicked Style. hasn't lost a race, won a grade 1 last race and did it extremely impressivly. BEat alot of these horses.. not alot but some. Distnace iwll not be a problem. he hasn't raced on dirt yet but if Macho Uno/Holy Bull doesn't spell dirt I dont' know what does. and at 10 to freakin 1? you gonna pay me 22 bucks for every 2 dollars to bet on an unfedated horse that won his last race, a grade 1 race by 5 lengths and pulling away? I'll take that 7 days a week and win or lose know it was a sound bet

if you want to get fancy, which Id on't.. Put Z Humor and Pyro on the bottom in an exacta

War pass didn't appreciate you dissing him :nono: But like you said at 5-2, whatever....

 

[6-heads lewis]

Anybody in Canada placing bets?

tvg, expressbet and youbet do not allow Canadian accounts, neither does bodoglife.

I found sites that do, but don't know anyting about them: 5dimes, bookmaker.com, sportsinteraction.com

 

[6-heads lewis]

is http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ honest? sportsinteraction is flooded with complains and bad reviews, 5dimes is the exact opposite, and bookmaker also received positive reviews.