Backbreaker-lets see your Breeders Cup picks

[cordoncordon]

Will you be there tomorrow or just betting online?

 

[backbreaker]

I'm on my way out the door now.


4 years ago, i learned the most important lesson fo my handicapping career on this day... it was the first of the 2nd in a row years of the BC being at santa ainta. they just got the new pro ride surface.

i got absoutly pillaged. and honestly, it wasn't even beucase of bad handicapping to this day i think a lot of my picks made very good sense.

i got killed, and i think a lot of people got killed on those 2 days, beucase i took the track for granted. the turf course was rock hard and the pro ride, no one had run over it yet that wasn't based in california.

this year it's the same deal. this smells a lot like 2008. the track is rock ****ing hard. the turf track is like pavement. all these horses from the mid west and east coast haven't seen anything like this hard ass track here in socal, nor are very many of them accussomted tot he difference in racing styles that has to be accounted for (socalr aces are much more speed oriented)

in liue of that, in combination with the fact that hollywood park meet coming up i am going to do great at, and i play aussie racing and the melborne stakes festival is goingo n, i'm not really gonna dive in, just live to fight another day. this is how i make a living and there will be other battles.

but i do like some .

in the first today i really like Quial Hill. I play socal everyday this is my bread and butter track so I follow these horses all the time.


in the 7th, i don't see anyway executive privilege is going to lose this race. IMHO she's the best 2 YO in the country regardless of gender. that 2 to 1 is stealing money.

I don't like the euros on this turf course at all. so while it makes sense to like some like up i kinda like in the turf, gonna have to pass.


in the ladies classic, i really like awesome feather. i like her becuase she is the most verisitle filly as far as the type of dirt she likes. she has won at gulfstream, she's won at clader, 2 polar opposite tracks, she's won at belmont and churchill. she should take to this track.

Honestly i just don't think royal delta is as good as her racing line makes her look.



okay.. tomorrow.. in the filly and mare sprint. i'm going to take a shot here. groupie doll is the odds on choice and she should win. but, she has never ran on this turf course, while she's won at churchill she has a very turfy pedigree and i question if she is going to take to this track like churchill.. that's not a given, not a lot of horses take to both.

i am going to say **** it and i'm going with rumor. at one point last year she was she was considered to be the best 3YO filly in the country. she's a half sister to multiple grade 1 winner dixie chatter. she loves this track. she runs her best here.

this is one of those plays where i don't think she will win, but she's better than 20 to 1 and i could easily see a scenerio where she pulls it off.


Dirt mile i am a huge rail trip fan, so that's where i am going. this is his best distance as well. if he has the lead in the middle of the back stretch this race is over


tuff sprint it's hard for me to go against california flag but starspangedbanner is just too good to pass up at 10 to 1. **** he's the best horse in this race by a considerable margin. if he doesn't get in trouble he won't lose he just has a gear that no other horse in this race has.


I think you will see an upset in the juvenile but i dont' know who. I don't like any of the top 3 . gun to my head i would go with fortify. but i am going to pass this race



sprint going with amazombie

mile going with wise dan

classic ron the greek

 

[cordoncordon]

I'm on my way out the door now.


4 years ago, i learned the most important lesson fo my handicapping career on this day... it was the first of the 2nd in a row years of the BC being at santa ainta. they just got the new pro ride surface.

i got absoutly pillaged. and honestly, it wasn't even beucase of bad handicapping to this day i think a lot of my picks made very good sense.

i got killed, and i think a lot of people got killed on those 2 days, beucase i took the track for granted. the turf course was rock hard and the pro ride, no one had run over it yet that wasn't based in california.

this year it's the same deal. this smells a lot like 2008. the track is rock ****ing hard. the turf track is like pavement. all these horses from the mid west and east coast haven't seen anything like this hard ass track here in socal, nor are very many of them accussomted tot he difference in racing styles that has to be accounted for (socalr aces are much more speed oriented)

in liue of that, in combination with the fact that hollywood park meet coming up i am going to do great at, and i play aussie racing and the melborne stakes festival is goingo n, i'm not really gonna dive in, just live to fight another day. this is how i make a living and there will be other battles.

but i do like some .

in the first today i really like Quial Hill. I play socal everyday this is my bread and butter track so I follow these horses all the time.


in the 7th, i don't see anyway executive privilege is going to lose this race. IMHO she's the best 2 YO in the country regardless of gender. that 2 to 1 is stealing money.

I don't like the euros on this turf course at all. so while it makes sense to like some like up i kinda like in the turf, gonna have to pass.


in the ladies classic, i really like awesome feather. i like her becuase she is the most verisitle filly as far as the type of dirt she likes. she has won at gulfstream, she's won at clader, 2 polar opposite tracks, she's won at belmont and churchill. she should take to this track.

Honestly i just don't think royal delta is as good as her racing line makes her look.



okay.. tomorrow.. in the filly and mare sprint. i'm going to take a shot here. groupie doll is the odds on choice and she should win. but, she has never ran on this turf course, while she's won at churchill she has a very turfy pedigree and i question if she is going to take to this track like churchill.. that's not a given, not a lot of horses take to both.

i am going to say **** it and i'm going with rumor. at one point last year she was she was considered to be the best 3YO filly in the country. she's a half sister to multiple grade 1 winner dixie chatter. she loves this track. she runs her best here.

this is one of those plays where i don't think she will win, but she's better than 20 to 1 and i could easily see a scenerio where she pulls it off.


Dirt mile i am a huge rail trip fan, so that's where i am going. this is his best distance as well. if he has the lead in the middle of the back stretch this race is over


tuff sprint it's hard for me to go against california flag but starspangedbanner is just too good to pass up at 10 to 1. **** he's the best horse in this race by a considerable margin. if he doesn't get in trouble he won't lose he just has a gear that no other horse in this race has.


I think you will see an upset in the juvenile but i dont' know who. I don't like any of the top 3 . gun to my head i would go with fortify. but i am going to pass this race



sprint going with amazombie

mile going with wise dan

classic ron the greek

Well the picks didnt work out too well today, but tomorrow is another day. May bet a few of your picks tomorrow.

Where do you hang out there?

 

[backbreaker]

this is kinda like reverse red boarding and this is why i dont' like giving out picks online, but i only made one wager all day and that was awesome feather. i mean i lost but **** i'm not taking ****ing 8 to 5 on executive privilege in the ****ing breeders cup. but still i thought she would win and didn't.

if you look past the picks and look at my first 2 paragraphs you will see i was for the most part spot on.. this **** is a crap shot, the surface is rock hard, no one outside of the socal horses has ever seen anything like this **** and you are guessing on who will and who won't like it. and on top of all that the 2 year olds can't run with lasix which all of them do all year long.

I mean ****, awesome feather has never lost a race in her life, 10 for freaking 10 and was done half way through the race lol. Questing won the Alabama a 10F race and at 9F she was done by the time they hit the first turn. some horses loved it some hated it. but i hate this every time it comes to socal because track is so biased

i got killed in 08 beucase i kept thinking my luck would change and it didn't. but this year i'm just keeping my wagers to horses who I liked from socal going in with the expection of ron the greek who won here earlier this year at the 10F distance

Where do you hang out there?

we actually have a box but i'm hard core i'm usually somewhere along the rail once the race starts. depends on where the race is ending.

 

[backbreaker]

I have literately been drinking since 9am this morning, watching the arkansas game then went to santa anita and then just kept it going through the lsu/bama game (what a game)

i'm pretty ****ed up honestly lol. my wife thinks it's funny when i get drunk beucse i am a truth telling drunk. anyway, 3-4 years ago i would have been stubborn enough to lose a **** load of money today. i knew what the gig was after yesterday on the dirt course and after i saw shangi bobby basically stop to a walk in the stretch and still hang on to win i knew that the dirt was just too biased to keep playing.. i didn't even bet that race but that was pathetic. horse ran the last 16th in damn near 7 seconds, after running the previous furlong in 28 seconds lol and still won. that's ****ing pitiful.

anyway, after that race i said **** the dirt and stuck to the turf. though i did bet rail trip pretty heavy and still dont' think tht was a bad beat, tapizar ran his eyballs out, rail trip was 7 to 1.

so i bet rail trip, starspanngledbanner and lose, and won with wise dan, so i did right at breaking even. so basically i stroked myself for 2 days lol.

lol that's not even the worse ****ing part. my wife, who is not a horrible handicapper but not anywhere near a professional / me, hit the ****ing trifecta in the turf sprint sprint. even worse, she hit the shti dead to ****ing rights on a 4 dollar wager. she loved the winner and loved renaesgotzip, basically for no other reason than they are both fillies but still, wheeled 4 horses in the place spot (lol i teach them well.. no girl of mine is going to be blowing money on 50 dollar trifecta tickets). s he hit that ****. and to top all that off, she beat ME in the race. so like, all ****ing day long i have had to hear her drunk post game analysis of the race. she hit a nice lick though 300 bucks. now she of course has to burn a hole in it so we are about to go out

anyway, seriously the women.. if you live in California and you are not at the breeders cup and you consider yourself a PUA lol kill yourself. mother of god the talent there is unreal. everywhere legit 8.5's in dresses and heels.

anyway, good event, the dirt track and lack of star power kinda is the lulz but what can you do.

 

[cordoncordon]

I went there to make one bet. Didn't care if she was 1-2 or 8-5. Groupie Doll.

$500 to win.

Collected my $850.

Of course then I f'd away $200 of it, but then put $500 on Wise Dan and did ok for the day.

Yes, I was a total chalk player yesterday. Harness racing is my forte so when it comes to T bred racing, I admit I am not the most informed.

BB you did well to break even considering.

And you are right, the girls there were amazzzzzzzzzzzzzing.

 

[backbreaker]

i don't really treat the breeders cup like regular racing for me it's really more ****s and giggles. b ut the thing is i mean, **** i can take 8/5 on a fav 363 days a year. i didn't come here to take 8/5 on a fav. i came to get 7 to 1 on a horse who under normal circumstances would be 5/2

but yeah wise dan was kinda my ace in my back pocket.


i mean normally i odn't just clean house at the breeders cup but when it's at Churchill, i generally turn a profit. 2 years ago the year that blame won i made out quite well. lol and right after that game we beat the **** out of south carolina that was a good day. but this bull**** ass dirt track out here no mas