backbreaker, how do you beat the vig in horse racing?

[st_99]

You obviously need to find mispriced horses or overlays but to me
how could you possibly do this on a consistent basis?

You would need to sort through 100's of races, know like every condition, jockey, trainer, starting position, weather, this that and the other but how could you expect to be that 1% quietly betting on races when the odds on the tote are out of wack?

 

[backbreaker]

there is no vig.


horse racing in America is para mutual. i track just gets a cut (15.88%) of every dollar wagered. 'm not betting against the bookie im' betting against you, and i know more than you do.

honestly... its just like any good business. the mistake too many people make is thinking they have to play every race everywhere. find something that you are really really good at, and focus on that. 95% of my wagers are made, on on two turn turf races. Well that and I also play Del Mar's main track and Keenland's Main track, which are both polytrack which is basically brown turf lol. That's all I bet on except for the Kentucky derby and stuff like that. when it comes to two turn turf races, in particular n the west coast, i'm your man. I don't know what it is, but early on i noticed that all my big scores came on two turn turf races, and I have focused on that ever since. Because the horses run on a circut, i don't have to look at past performances as i usually remember all the horses off the top of my head. i spend the majority of my time just watching races and soaking up information.


with that said man you have no idea how much time I put into this. it's
literary worse than a full time job. Today from 10am to probably 8pm.

me personally i don't wager when i think odds are out of wack, i wager when I have a strong opinion on something. if i have a strong opinion on a 6/5 shot i'll all in because i figure i'm throwing away money when I don't wager.

funny you brought tihs thread up, man i just had to go jog a mile i'm so pissed at myself, i'm sitting here on the coach with my GF, santa anita race 7, I looked at unbirdled dream and said to her look.. he's gonna win. I mean, I KNEW he was going to win. it was one of those races that just made too much sense.

I get to talking, I never make a wager utnil 1 mtp. some reason, i go into my account, get ready to plump my money down on the 2.. at 9 to 1... says "this race is no longer available". i missed the ****ing race. i wanted to cry cause i knew he was going to win. of course he wired the field and paid 18.80. cost me some real money. so pissed. at that point you just shut it down and go at it again tomorrow.

butlong =short alot of time, soaking up knowledge, and alot of bumps and bruises.
it generally, takes 6 years for someone to go from fan, to novice, to someone who can keep their head above water when it comes to wagering.Develop your own angles, develop your own style, and don't listen to tipsters and people trying ot make money from you by selling picks


pm me and i will be happy to send you some resources and some more info, always trying to bring in some new blood ot the game.

 

[st_99]

Thanks, I was just curious. Sometimes I'll go the local casino here and play poker which is next to the horse racing section. The only bets I make really are just novice style exactas. Where I basically just pick a favorite and then a couple longer odds to get a decent payout. Its pretty fun and I can't stand harness racing.

 

[backbreaker]

if you are going to do that, flip it and play the longer shot on top with the fav on the bottom of the execta. I'm a straight win wager only person, I don't get into exotics, but that right there is how you are supposed to play an execta to make a long term profit.

if you have a fav that 9s 8/5 and you like a horse that is 6 to 1, and you thionk if they raced ten times, the 8/5 shot would win 7 times and the 5 to 1 shot would win 5 (favs only win about 33% of the time), and the 8/5 shot on top paid 11 dollars and the 6/1 shot on top paid 22 which is about right on the prices there, then the 8/5 shot on top would pay you 55 dollars if you won, the 6/1 shot would pay 110.00 if it won 5 times.

 

[cordoncordon]

One of my favorite horse bets to make is a $30 perfecta box, boxing 3 horses. That way any of the 3 horses can finish first or second, in any order, and as long as it pays more than $12, I make money. $12 I break even. Less than $12 I start to lose. You can get a nice 8-1 shot on top and it can easily pay $100 or more, in which case I cash for $1500.

I also like betting superfectas, where you pick the first 4 finishers using a combo of boxing and 2-3 horses I like on top. I also bet straight win bets as well.

Unlike BB, I bet harness race horses 99.9999% of the time, since I owned and trained them for many many years, so I know that style much better than the thoroughbreds that BB bets.

Go Zenyetta!!! http://www.flickr.com/photos/creepy_coyote/4295898241/