Are you confident that the recession is over?

[iqqi]

This kind of ties into my invest $1000 post, as I've been reading old threads that discuss investments and investing. Just now I am reading this thread, from over a year ago, with extremely dismal views on when to jump in the stock pool.

Do you think a lot has changed in this past year?

It would be interesting to hear what those posters think now, a year later.

 

[OzyBoy]

I'm no expert but from reading the news and various forums, it seems many people expect another crash to come soon. It may not happen but i would still be fairly cautious.

 

[kingsam]

ther wil be another dip/recession in england if the conservatives win the election in a month!

 

[f283000]

The "Amero" is coming. The last thing you should be doing is investing in this country.

 

[EA Gold]

LOL!

Nothing has been done to prevent something like this from happening again, but hey at least we'll have health insurance if it happens again..

Yet despite all this, I completely forgive those people, and organizations who caused all this. Recessions and business cycles are not a natural occurrence, they are man made. By the use of Increasing and decreasing the amount of currency in the market and giving out loans on interest and demanding payment at anytime then not loaning out anymore money.

For more information, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoG8R1s59Po

and be advised be in a forgiving spirit as what u may see can be disturbing. Please forgive for those who did not.

 

[CaptainJ]

ther wil be another dip/recession in england if the conservatives win the election in a month!

lol are you serious? If Labour win control back again then England is literally fvcked. Incredible wastage of money because of their stupid socialist welfare ideas, with Gordon Brown who knows jack sh1t about how to save money. If you were borrowing money and heavily in debt, would you still hand out benefits to people who sit on their ass all day leeching off the state?

Just look at british political history. Labour gets into power, leaving the country in an economic mess by the time it leaves. Conservatives get in, and have to clean up the sh1t, but kick start the economy again. Labour then come back in and ride the wave of the Tories' success, attributing it to themselves, whilst steadily fvcking everything up again.

God I hate Labour party.

 

[kingsam]

captain please stop letting The Sun, Mail, Express tell you what to think..
what the tories said to do when the global recession started was the OPPOSITE of what every country did, they were WRONG WRONG WRONG

they now see another good opportunity to destroy/privatize the NHS, what they tried to do in the 80's.

 

[Julius_Seizeher]

"Run for the hills! DOOM!" People were saying the same thing one and two years ago. What happened? The market shot up 60% in 2009 and most people I talk to have recovered all their losses in their retirement plans. But it is indeed an environment prime for a bubble, one where I would feel more comfortable investing in individual stocks than mutual funds.

The "Amero"? Nobama and the ******crats are going to get thrown out of the federal government in less than two years, hell wait until the senatorial elections this fall. People rich, middle-class, and poor alike are disgusted with the direction he is trying to take our country, and he's done.

Look at England. The liberals took that country over, and now it is a bankrupt femi-socialist pigsty of foreigners with 200 cameras on every street corner.

Anyway, no the recession is not over. We are seeing various degrees of growth and optimism in certain sectors, but in the streets, there are too many unemployed people. This administration has done NOTHING to combat the real problem faced by our country, that it is too expensive for corporations (and anyone) to do business here. What have they done? Piled even more taxes on the people who are now supposed to support everybody else. This dog ain't gonna hunt, and as long as the animals are running the zoo, there is going to be profound economic uncertainty out there.

Times like these are the price we pay for the times we clearly see why we live in the greatest country ever known to man. So many weak people throw their hands in the air and say "It's all over man, it isn't the 50's anymore, America is done man!" This country is only 235 years old! We are just getting started! You who would throw in the towel on America, look in the mirror and see that it is YOURSELF that you have given up on.

 

[Julius_Seizeher]

To you English lads, is it ironic that the labour party is comprised of people who don't work?

And liberals in this country do the same thing, everyone loves to say how FDR saved us from the Great Depression, because their seventh grade history book said so. His policies dragged it out six years longer than it should have lasted, and it was WW2 that ended the Depression.

 

[Outsider]

I have no actual evidence to back this up, but this is what I think is going on.

I think that we're getting out this recession from the top-down. Meaning, that we bailed out the richest people in the country, the bankers/banks. So they got out of the recession first (or never really felt the recession). Then those people who were wealthy enough to get loans (good credit rating, etc), like upper middle class, got loans and began to purchase, so they got out of the recession next. And the order goes down hill from there.

In other words, I think we bailed out the rich people first, so they're out of the recession, but the lower class people are really feeling it still.

IMO

 

[Upside]

The moment the recession ends is when unemployment reaches its natural rate and when investment, government spending, and consumer spending increase to more normal levels. A little more money now is being spent, but unemployment is still too high (last I checked 9.7% nationally, a bit lower than last quarter i believe, but in some states it is like 15.6%). No, the recession is not over, but things are looking up.

By the way, the country is not going to implode. Thank you.

There are cycles and fluctuations in the business world. If you recall the United States was experiencing vast growth a few years prior to the 2007 financial collapse. Most experts belived that such growth was unsustainable (and it is, can't grow forever and don't use China as an example. The two countries are completely different and both have their own set of problems to deal with.) Such growth lead to overproductivity from its natural, sustainable rate which caused a very hard retraction back to below normal levels. In time, the U.S and other countires experiencing this golbal recession will bounce back and continue to grow.

This won't be the last recession you face in your lifetime people. Stop thinking it will be the end of the world whenever it does happen. It's normal in the world of finance, just as expansions are.

Recessions and business cycles are not a natural occurrence, they are man made

One of the basic principles of economics are the interacions of MAN in the market place. No **** that busniess cycles are MAN made, but they are natural nonetheless. You can't prevent flucations in the business market. People make predicitions and assumptions about market conditions that can sway the general public opinion, then the opinion sways back; repeat. Finance and Economics are not natural laws of the universe, just how people interact and in a large group of people, you can make some very basic assumptions. There will ALWAYS be fluctuations. Enjoy the good times and ride out the bad ones.

 

[Mr.Positive]

I don't think anyone knows what to expect, but if you think about what caused the first one. The subprime defaults.

Then, look at this chart...

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/01/second-wave-of-mortgage-defaults.html

Logic, would dictate we are headed for a second wave.

Maybe the government has a white rabbit they can pull to stop the next wave....who knows. Maybe they are working some numbers.

But, more defaults are on the horizon.

My two bits, I'm cautious investing now...however, I'll be ready if we do get smacked down to jump in on the low. If things remain stable through the year, ignore this chart. This fall, may be interesting.

 

[CaptainJ]

captain please stop letting The Sun, Mail, Express tell you what to think..
what the tories said to do when the global recession started was the OPPOSITE of what every country did, they were WRONG WRONG WRONG

they now see another good opportunity to destroy/privatize the NHS, what they tried to do in the 80's.

I don't read any of those papers, my views are my own. It does not take a genius to realise that Labour's policies of making everyone dependent on the state for survival really do suck, whilst sucking money out of people who actually work. But I'm not surprised you buy into all this socialist brain washing employed by everyone, since we are basically taught in school that it's evil to be a rich business owner and poor people deserve money simply for the fact they are poor.

The Tories want to cut back spending. No one has a fvcking clue about what Labour are going to do, but it seems like they are just going to waste more and more of our money whilst turning the political system into a bureaucratic mess. The simple fact that Harriet "Feminist b1tch" Harmann is Labour's 2nd in command is enough to stop me ever voting for them. Silly cow attributes the recession to Men, nothing like stupid gender ranting that does fvck all to help the situation eh? Our country has really gone down the drain with the emergence of Labour and their socialist feminist bullsh1t.

 

[FutureSpartan]

"Run for the hills! DOOM!" People were saying the same thing one and two years ago. What happened? The market shot up 60% in 2009 and most people I talk to have recovered all their losses in their retirement plans. But it is indeed an environment prime for a bubble, one where I would feel more comfortable investing in individual stocks than mutual funds.

The "Amero"? Nobama and the ******crats are going to get thrown out of the federal government in less than two years, hell wait until the senatorial elections this fall. People rich, middle-class, and poor alike are disgusted with the direction he is trying to take our country, and he's done.

Look at England. The liberals took that country over, and now it is a bankrupt femi-socialist pigsty of foreigners with 200 cameras on every street corner.

Anyway, no the recession is not over. We are seeing various degrees of growth and optimism in certain sectors, but in the streets, there are too many unemployed people. This administration has done NOTHING to combat the real problem faced by our country, that it is too expensive for corporations (and anyone) to do business here. What have they done? Piled even more taxes on the people who are now supposed to support everybody else. This dog ain't gonna hunt, and as long as the animals are running the zoo, there is going to be profound economic uncertainty out there.

Times like these are the price we pay for the times we clearly see why we live in the greatest country ever known to man. So many weak people throw their hands in the air and say "It's all over man, it isn't the 50's anymore, America is done man!" This country is only 235 years old! We are just getting started! You who would throw in the towel on America, look in the mirror and see that it is YOURSELF that you have given up on.

Hey Julius what is your view on our fiscal and monetary situation? The Fed has flooded the market again with cheap money while Washington continues to sell more government debt. I like Ron Paul's message to drastically cut government spending (both defense and entitlements). At some point we will have to to avoid becoming like Greece right?

 

[romangod]

My 2 cents:

I think that the recession is over and things are on the way up slowly but surely. There will be more hiccups in the economy but they will be manageable. I don't think the house of cards will collapse totally again but we might lose a few more floors.

However, I do think the days of unbridled consumer spending have come to an end. Consumers are more cautious and many have dodged a bullet. High personal debt has sunk many and buried a lot.

There's been a new awakening among businesses and consumers. Business has to become more lean and mean to survive while consumers want more bang for their buck.


The strong will survive and the weak will perish.

Cheers!

 

[synergy1]

Not really, although I think the recession weeded out a lot of 'fat' from our economy - crappy low quality producers for example. The R/E markets still have plenty of supply, and I suspect many are still underwater in their mortgages so one can only expect that markets to stagnate for a bit. The creation of new jobs w/ government money will take a while, and I still see plenty of folks w/ out jobs. Despite how our government reports unemployment ( once someones claims are done, they don't count towards that statistic for example), we still have a lot of people doing nothing right now.

is it over? the question is was it ever really over? I have had my pulse on the VC market in the south western Virginia area for a few months, and they are extremely cautious about investments into small companies right now. Unless you were an investment bank that got TARP money, there isn't a whole hell of a lot to go around now. Believe me I should know, I am looking under every federal rock for it!

 

[SmoothTalker]

There are cycles and fluctuations in the business world. If you recall the United States was experiencing vast growth a few years prior to the 2007 financial collapse. Most experts belived that such growth was unsustainable

I like most of what you said, but not this part. First, the US was definitely not experiencing 'vast' growth, at least in the real sense, any time recently. Probably not since the late 90s. What we saw for most of the past decade was nothing more than a huge credit binge fueled by low rates, deficit spending, and real estate. That's not really economic growth.

Also, few experts predicted it, though they should have, it was obvious. I believe I called BS on the housing bubble probably 5+ years ago ( I think it was in STR8UP's RE thread) and got laughed at because 'real estate always goes up'.

 

[Julius_Seizeher]

Hey Julius what is your view on our fiscal and monetary situation? The Fed has flooded the market again with cheap money while Washington continues to sell more government debt. I like Ron Paul's message to drastically cut government spending (both defense and entitlements). At some point we will have to to avoid becoming like Greece right?

I think we need radical changes across the fiscal board. For starters, we need to make America business and capital friendly again. The most immediate change we need to make is in our system of taxation. We need to enact the Fairtax immediately, it is the most just and equitable tax plan ever proposed. Checkout fairtax.org. Essentially, our current system discourages domestic business operations and repels foreign capital, while removing the fundamental principle that makes America work: incentive. Why should some enterprising fool start a business? So he can pay 50-60% taxes and try to do business under an ever-increasing load of government interference?

After we get the juice flowing in America again, we need to get rid of our national debt, Ben Franklin is rolling over in his grave. So after instituting the Fairtax, we tighten our belt and pay that debt down, and foreign investors will be THROWING their money at us while our businesses are kicking ass!

Next, we need to do something with Fort Knox. Think about it, it's our big ace in the hole. As things stand, it does absolutely nothing for us; it's just a big pile of gold sitting in a bank. There are tremendous fears out there about catastrophic inflation in the wake of our economic recovery. When we were on the Gold Standard, we had ZERO % inflation for 100 years. The Gold Standard allowed America to happen. I think we should go back to the Gold Standard, and base our money on something physical instead of nebulous "currency confidence". In all of our modern economic intellectual wanking, we have forgotten the Golden Rule: He who has the Gold makes the Rules. It has been true since the dawn of time, except in America right now, because we have it and choose to do nothing with it.

Lastly, and I may draw fire for this, I think we should enact a law wherein only tax-paying citizens are allowed to vote. We need to make responsibility the Law of the Land instead of an antiquated concept not in keeping with our "modern thinking". By enacting this law, we will keep the bums who are currently breeding like rabbits from making the country a free candy store.

What does it boil down to? DESTROYING THE LIBERAL FEMINIST BRAINTRUST THAT THREATENS TO DESTORY OUR COUNTRY! It all comes back to feminism! "I don't need a man, Uncle Sam will raise my kids! And then they'll vote for liberals who will supply them with everything they need to keep from being honest and productive citizens!"

 

[picard]

The recession is far from over despite banking bailout. I took extensive economic courses to understand about the economy. The gov't is trying to assure the public by giving us an exaggerated outlook on the economy to prevent panic in the market.

 

[Desert Fox]

I think we need radical changes across the fiscal board. For starters, we need to make America business and capital friendly again. The most immediate change we need to make is in our system of taxation. We need to enact the Fairtax immediately, it is the most just and equitable tax plan ever proposed. Checkout fairtax.org. Essentially, our current system discourages domestic business operations and repels foreign capital, while removing the fundamental principle that makes America work: incentive. Why should some enterprising fool start a business? So he can pay 50-60% taxes and try to do business under an ever-increasing load of government interference?

After we get the juice flowing in America again, we need to get rid of our national debt, Ben Franklin is rolling over in his grave. So after instituting the Fairtax, we tighten our belt and pay that debt down, and foreign investors will be THROWING their money at us while our businesses are kicking ass!

Next, we need to do something with Fort Knox. Think about it, it's our big ace in the hole. As things stand, it does absolutely nothing for us; it's just a big pile of gold sitting in a bank. There are tremendous fears out there about catastrophic inflation in the wake of our economic recovery. When we were on the Gold Standard, we had ZERO % inflation for 100 years. The Gold Standard allowed America to happen. I think we should go back to the Gold Standard, and base our money on something physical instead of nebulous "currency confidence". In all of our modern economic intellectual wanking, we have forgotten the Golden Rule: He who has the Gold makes the Rules. It has been true since the dawn of time, except in America right now, because we have it and choose to do nothing with it.

Lastly, and I may draw fire for this, I think we should enact a law wherein only tax-paying citizens are allowed to vote. We need to make responsibility the Law of the Land instead of an antiquated concept not in keeping with our "modern thinking". By enacting this law, we will keep the bums who are currently breeding like rabbits from making the country a free candy store.

What does it boil down to? DESTROYING THE LIBERAL FEMINIST BRAINTRUST THAT THREATENS TO DESTORY OUR COUNTRY! It all comes back to feminism! "I don't need a man, Uncle Sam will raise my kids! And then they'll vote for liberals who will supply them with everything they need to keep from being honest and productive citizens!"

Are you on crack? Do you not realize you are speaking too much truth and "common" sense for the average fvcking imbecile to understand much less support?