2013 Kentucky Derby. Who ya like?

[Robert28]

I have 3 horses I'm looking at but don't have a favorite...yet. Verrazano, Will Take Charge, and Revolutionary.

 

[Down Low]

I'm less than thrilled with the people and horses involved this year. Seems like the Florida horses are going to run away with it. We'll see.

 

[backbreaker]

I think orb is the best horse in the race.

But I think Normady Invasion is the value play and the smart wager with his running style. he wants to run 10F and he's one of the only horses I can say int his race honestly who want to run this far

I think Verrazano is not going to run back to his last race, i won't say why but i have my reasons. he just has to beat me.

Goldencents is a nice horse but i don't think he wants to run this far.

the oaklawn horses are in over their heads

The oaks is the better race this year. best oaks field from top to bottom i've ever seen.

Dreaming of Julia would probably be the betting favorite in the derby if she ran int he derby but she couldn't because of the new points thing. but if she wins like she won last time she will run in the belmont

so i'm going with

Normandy invasion to win

Normandy invasion / orb exacta straight


Normandy Invasion
Orb
Goldencents / Mylute / Javas War / Revolutionary Trifecta


Again, i think orb is going to win this race. i really do. but i don't bet who i think is going to win i bet who i think is going to win / value. normady invasion if he's anywhere near 10 to 1 is the value play. orb at 7/2 isn't.

 

[Robert28]

I think orb is the best horse in the race.

But I think Normady Invasion is the value play and the smart wager with his running style. he wants to run 10F and he's one of the only horses I can say int his race honestly who want to run this far

I think Verrazano is not going to run back to his last race, i won't say why but i have my reasons. he just has to beat me.

Goldencents is a nice horse but i don't think he wants to run this far.

the oaklawn horses are in over their heads

The oaks is the better race this year. best oaks field from top to bottom i've ever seen.

Dreaming of Julia would probably be the betting favorite in the derby if she ran int he derby but she couldn't because of the new points thing. but if she wins like she won last time she will run in the belmont

so i'm going with

Normandy invasion to win

Normandy invasion / orb exacta straight


Normandy Invasion
Orb
Goldencents / Mylute / Javas War / Revolutionary Trifecta


Again, i think orb is going to win this race. i really do. but i don't bet who i think is going to win i bet who i think is going to win / value. normady invasion if he's anywhere near 10 to 1 is the value play. orb at 7/2 isn't.

Nice picks! I really want to like Normandy Invasion but I've never been sold on a Chad Brown trained horse. I also wanna see what the weather is going to be like Saturday, which is why I haven't gone with Orb. That, and lately it seems like Derby favorites have dissapointed and I don't know if he can break that streak. Some good horses in this field but nothing like last year. I like my 3 picks but I don't have a clear favorite like I had last year.

 

[Down Low]

Itsmyluckyday, Orb, Verrazano, and Goldencents are going to the lead on the first turn, and are going to stay there for the remainder of the race. Vyjack, Normandy Invasion, and Java's War want to steal it at the end, but I doubt they're fast enough to catch up.

Rain will help the frontrunners.

I'm not happy that Verrazano's Beyers are retreating as the distance increases. I won't brand him with the Apollo curse, but he's no royally-bred Fusaichi Pegasus and had no business starting so late.

Orb's FOY was helped by 2nd time Lasix, dropping back a little in distance, a too-hot pace to chase, and a hard track.

Goldencents is a beneficiary of Santa Anita's frontrunner bias. It's a shame the new point system will eliminate SoCal laterunners.

Itsmyluckyday and Revolutionary have big gaps in their race schedules. Same with Will Take Charge. Gotta hate the drugs/rest/more drugs method of training. It makes past performances unreliable.

 

[backbreaker]

if it rains i have no clue what i'm going to do. i might actually sit it out.

pedigree wise chaming kitten, java's war and Verrazano are best bred for the off track. Verrazano more than the others with the southern halo at the top and blushing groom on the bottom he will eat that **** up. if it's raining that's where i'm going

 

[Down Low]

Souped-up track on Oaks day. Favorite failed due to bumping out of the gate, gonna spoil a lot of Oaks-Derby double tickets.

 

[backbreaker]

if orb goes off at anything close to his current odds, i'm scraping everything and going in with him. he's too good to go off at 7 to 1 in this race i don't care about hte track condition. i could not fathom him going off at higher than 7/2 or 4 to 1 in this race after winning ihs last 2 races but 7 to 1 is a gift

 

[backbreaker]

Bb knows his horses

thanks

 

[backbreaker]

Here's my question: do these horses know the difference between a win and a loss? Like, I dunno, do they recognize praise and perform better because of it? If so, do you bet on horses on a streak?

Disclaimer: I know nothing about horse racing.

yeah i do think they know the difference.

 

[Down Low]

BB, nice pick singling Orb. The pace was too fast, and he rated back well.

Normandy Invasion was put to the lead a little early, which cost him final position. Too bad really. His running style is all wrong for the Preakness.

SoSuave666, yes, horses naturally race one another to establish their pecking order. They know which one wins. They also know when they weren't taken to the winners' circle. After 16 straight wins, Cigar moped around for a day after his Pacific Classic loss.

 

[backbreaker]

yeah javiar gave normady a pretty ****ty ride and cost 2nd place. he moved about an 8th too soon

 

[Robert28]

yeah BB called it for sure! I, on the other hand, got my @$$ kicked.lol My horses finished 3, 8, and 14.lol when it comes to making solid picks on muddy tracks I'm almost never right. I still can't believe that fast pace that race ran from the beginning. it seems like the pace gets faster and faster every year.

I will say though that the absolute best horse I saw today didn't even run in the Derby, he ran in the Woodford Reserve. Wise Dan. what a bad@$$ horse! I have alot of respect for Optimizer and he made that horse look like he was walking at the end. Wise Dan is the best horse I've seen this year by far.

As for the Preakness, not sure who I'm going with yet as I have to wait and see who's going to run.

 

[myopoh]

I got $75 on a $5 bet at my local bar for getting 3rd

 

[backbreaker]

another neat fact about orb


In human terms, he's closely related (it would be like a greatx4 cousin) to the great ruffian, it's the same family. Shannigans, who is Ruffian's mother (dam) is Orb's greatx4 grandmother (grand dam)

 

[Robert28]

Did anyone else watch the Preakness? I went with Will Take Charge again and also Gov. Charlie, but ended up being bad wrong....again. Orb really surprised me. I didn't think he was tripple crown material but I did think he'd win today. Oxbow ran well in the Derby so I should have known. I'd actually thought he'd finish top 3. Gary ran an awesome race, hats off to him. This has been a crazy year for horse racing. The one's people aren't giving a chance seem to be running better then the favorites.

 

[backbreaker]

i didn't wager on the race beucase i thought orb was going to win but i wasn't going to take 3-5.

i think the mistake people are going to make is think this race means something and in the grand scheme of things it doesn't.

orb never had a chance. with this pace and with being trapped and i dont' think he cared for the surface either. but when they hit the half mile pole in 48 and change the race was over pimlico is not a track where you can let a good horse shake lose on the lead with a soft pace and go and get him

an d don't get me started on Kevin Krigger. he might have single handily cost the triple crown with his ****ty ride on goldencents.

if you pay attention to the race as it unfolds, the only real change in positions was goldencents dropping out. Oxbow lead the entire step, itsmylukcyday was right there the entire race. that tells me it was more of a funky ran race than a real talent determining race


**** happens basically lol

 

[Robert28]

i didn't wager on the race beucase i thought orb was going to win but i wasn't going to take 3-5.

i think the mistake people are going to make is think this race means something and in the grand scheme of things it doesn't.

orb never had a chance. with this pace and with being trapped and i dont' think he cared for the surface either. but when they hit the half mile pole in 48 and change the race was over pimlico is not a track where you can let a good horse shake lose on the lead with a soft pace and go and get him

an d don't get me started on Kevin Krigger. he might have single handily cost the triple crown with his ****ty ride on goldencents.

if you pay attention to the race as it unfolds, the only real change in positions was goldencents dropping out. Oxbow lead the entire step, itsmylukcyday was right there the entire race. that tells me it was more of a funky ran race than a real talent determining race


**** happens basically lol

agree with that analysis. I don't think Orb cared too much for being in traffic, not sure if he'd ever ran a race in a similar position? I just thought Gov Charlie was a better horse then Itsmyluckyday and I keep thinking WTC is better then Oxbow, but Oxbow has proven me wrong twice. I would have liked to seen what Revolutionary could have done in this race.

 

[backbreaker]

seriously i would not put anymore into this race other than kevin Krigger is an idiot and allowed oxbow to shake lose on the lead with slow fractions.

 

[Robert28]

seriously i would not put anymore into this race other than kevin Krigger is an idiot and allowed oxbow to shake lose on the lead with slow fractions.

lol agreed.