Let's Talk Stocks Again

[Bible_Belt]

Yeah, day trading is dead unless you are a computer programmer. I tried it with my own money shortly after law school, and it was not fun at all. I have to be trading someone else's money in order for it to hold my interest.

 

[ChristopherColumbus]

I'm definitely no expert but I'd say its easy enough to make money swing trading in a rising market. I buy shares that r volatile and just buy them cheap and unload them for small profit. I've only just started and it could all go horribly wrong but so far I'm 3 fort 3.

I'm also looking for that big win a solid company has some negative news that will take it down temporarily eg like the Volkswagen recall a couple of years ago. In other words a short-term dip from it's long-term trading average. That is the time to bet the farm

So @switch7 have you got any tips for the lads on how to increase the profit or decrease the risk? Or if it's not Shiraz what can you do to make side money that is accessible to everyone? I mean yes some people start a business but that takes a business idea and time and money and getting backing so that is not the same as playing with shares.

The market may have finally turned. trade wars, political uncertainty, rising interest rates...

Of course people have been pretty much indoctrinated into the idea that stock markets always go up. But they don't.

 

[greatsnake]

Day trading can get you there.

My focus is retirement, so I have no issue holding stocks for the long term.

 

[ubercat]

I would not know. I ve pulled out. With my small profit

 

[synergy1]

I would not know. I ve pulled out. With my small profit

I have reduced to about 25% stocks at the moment and 75% cash. My market model suggests a top - probably a medium top as distribution of major indexes has been heavy. I want to see a breakdown in market leaders and will probably be initiating short positions on them.

Interesting how markets have had a larger effect on my energy stocks than the fundamentals of that industry. We have seen crude front month futures ( as well as august) surge lately, yet these stocks have hardly moved in comparison. Assuming we have a few more rallies of markets, i'll probably sell into that strength and lock in profits or in some cases, losses.

I really want to be in the market minimally at this stage.

 

[Von]

I have reduced to about 25% stocks at the moment and 75% cash. My market model suggests a top - probably a medium top as distribution of major indexes has been heavy. I want to see a breakdown in market leaders and will probably be initiating short positions on them.

Interesting how markets have had a larger effect on my energy stocks than the fundamentals of that industry. We have seen crude front month futures ( as well as august) surge lately, yet these stocks have hardly moved in comparison. Assuming we have a few more rallies of markets, i'll probably sell into that strength and lock in profits or in some cases, losses.

I really want to be in the market minimally at this stage.

I am going Small-Cap and Mid-Cap funds right now (mutual funds) in new investings

To avoid the Large Cap - Index Frienzy.

Keeping 25% in Cash.

My stocks performance has been off the charts (did 350% in 1 year). I've pulled out of individual stocks for now (no time - cash flows) but keep monitoring the stocks that passed my evaluation grid (including those I sold/used to hold)... So far I've been pretty right and if I keep my money there.. I would have been even higher in returns.

I expect a crash within 2-4 years marging. A big one.

Currently checking financially : debt market (student loan, car loan, mortgage in Canada and US), Raising interest rates in CAN and Europe, dividendes stocks balance sheet on major indexes

We'll I do wealth management for a living and love it. Eventually, I'll give more time for my own portfolio.

 

[synergy1]

"I expect a crash within 2-4 years marging. A big one."

Totally with you there. I honestly don't have a timeline and don't put too much effort into predicting these things. My methodology of buying, or getting stopped out will be helpful in mitigating a big draw in the event of 2008, unless of course we get a flash crash type event, in which case my current 25% equity would feel that

Nice job on the 350% performance. It is superior to mine, which I am tracking much closer now. Assuming this discussion has staying power, I have no problem posting my gains, losses, wins and mistakes as well as lessons learned.

"Currently checking financially : debt market (student loan, car loan, mortgage in Canada and US),"

Canadian banks are probably going to be great short candidates. Certainly worth building a watch list of banks. I heard a good piece about the Canadian banks and there relative out-performance compared to their american peers. As part of this piece, they talk about Canadian debt to GDP, and we Canadian levels above the US in 08. (attached). Also interesting to note that Canadian Banks have a lower median effective tax rate than their US counterparts.

 

[synergy1]

Quick update - Still a bit cautious about the markets in general. I plan on selling a profitable position tomorrow (long term cap gains, woo!) and reinvesting part of it into something with a very nice price entry point, and solid fundamentals. I'll be selling into strength and taking a little profit/cash off the table and hopefully catching a nice trending , small cap stock on the way up. might wait for a pullback if it becomes too extended tomorrow.

UVV from a few weeks ago is trading about 5% higher with very narrow price action. The general markets are probably holding it back, so I would expect some nice upward action if general fears about trade wars abate. The market has been sideways this year, so I might set a profit objective on this one and take it at 20% if it comes quickly. I would rather stay out of this market when I can, or start to short the big leaders as they break down. Amazon, Tesla, Netflix, Google, and Nvidea, I have my eyes on you...but not yet.

 

[Cloudtopsun2100]

Anyone here use Markov chains or Neural Networks to try to forecast? I've been trying to implement methods learned in classes and on my own to quantmod data found in R.

 

[synergy1]

No I do not use machine learning for my selection. I use charts and fundamentals, coupled with very well defined stop losses. I let winners ride and cut losers quickly. Speaking of, UVV hasn't been performing as expected and I closed at a 3% loss. Its now down 1.3% my purchase price, so maybe it'll present a better entry. For now, I am out.

 

[synergy1]

This thread hasn't seen much action - I'll throw in my 0.02.

I don't really know what to make of the market. the S&P500 has reached key level of 2900 while key leadership has broken down in the past months. This includes facebook, and netflix that have broken hard on major volume and failed to rally to all time highs. As a momentum guy, I watch other lesser known names ( HEAR, etc) and watch their breakouts...or in HEAR's case, break downs. Many of my plays have failed to break out in otherwise decent charts all backed by decent fundamentals. Two I own are VRTX and ECHO, each of which posted good earnings in Q2 (beats), but they have not moved up with authority after breaking off their pivots on decent volume.

I am short tesla via long dated puts, and those are up something like 45% since I purchased those, but my overall % gain is not very large compared to my total liquidity...I get stopped out often and have been on the sidelines as a result. Some short side misses I have not been able to participate in have been twitter which attempted a rally after breaking, and everyones favorite, TLRY which saw a 90% gain in a day followed by a 50% drop within minutes of a trade hault....the stock halted 5 times in a single session and now sits where it did after a 150 point week. Options are expensive, and there is no float to short. That said, pot stocks are hot now, and a savvy day trader could proabbly still find great entries and swing trade for a decent profit.

If Tesla gets into a bad situation with the SE/DOJ investigations, and the shares experience meaningful disribution i'll certainly be in the green overall...but this is one heck of a gamble. Q3 could be make or break depending if they can engineer a profit. I'll be watching the charts for large blocks of distribution as it seems insiders always seem to know if earnings will be good or bad *before* they are released!

Good luck all.

 

[synergy1]

stopped out of echo like its my job. Staying mostly in cash. For the time being the markets aren't behaving well for my type of trading style.

Meanwhile those in some of those pot stocks => $$$.

cheers

 

[EyeBRollin]

I'll bump this, been working on coaching a few people close to me on the merits of index funds and dollar-cost averaging.

I play blackjack on the side. It's quite a lucrative hobby. It's the only mathematically beatable casino game. It requires mental discipline and a respect of mathematics and statistics. In many ways, the stock market has a similar framework.

You won't beat the market in the long term. Period. Short term gains are subject to the same gambler's fallacy as any casino game. You're fooling yourself if you think you can time the market and beat the 7-9% annual average growth with any kind of consistency. Invest in high quality, low cost index funds and come up with a portfolio allocation you can live with. I currently favor Small and Mid Cap indexes to Large Cap (though I invest in all three), and tend to favor International Bonds to both Domestic Bonds and International Stocks.

 

[Bible_Belt]

You won't beat the market in the long term. Period. Short term gains are subject to the same gambler's fallacy as any casino game. You're fooling yourself if you think you can time the market and beat the 7-9% annual average growth with any kind of consistency.

I used to make that kind of return in a day on company money, although I concede it was using massive leverage. I would expect to make at least that much gain in a month if I was trading now.

Sorry, my friend, but the idea that you cannot beat the market is the blue pill. It is not even that difficult on a fairly small account. The reason that big money managers dont make 9% a month is that they have a huge account to manage. It makes their options much more limited. Give any hot shot fund manager an account under 1 million and he will make 10% a month instead of in a year. But he makes more money earning 10% annually if the account is massive, as in hundreds of millions. The idea that the little guy cannot do better is a giant lie, crafted by the banking industry to get your money.

 

[ubercat]

Well sucks to be me. I bought one of my favourite overpriced shares just before the market correction. So my profits pretty much back now to what I would have got in the bank.

I'm still happy with swing trading but now I realise I have to track the macro.

Have any of you guys got a few simple ways of ooking at the overall market movement so you can spot a bear market coming?

 

[EyeBRollin]

I used to make that kind of return in a day on company money, although I concede it was using massive leverage. I would expect to make at least that much gain in a month if I was trading now.

Sorry, my friend, but the idea that you cannot beat the market is the blue pill. It is not even that difficult on a fairly small account. The reason that big money managers dont make 9% a month is that they have a huge account to manage. It makes their options much more limited. Give any hot shot fund manager an account under 1 million and he will make 10% a month instead of in a year. But he makes more money earning 10% annually if the account is massive, as in hundreds of millions. The idea that the little guy cannot do better is a giant lie, crafted by the banking industry to get your money.

In a short term you can beat the market. Long term (30+ years) it is highly unlikely. Don’t fall for it.

 

[greatsnake]

Seems like the correction is over. I have my money on small cap stocks-- value + tremendous growth

 

[synergy1]

So the fang stocks have gotten hit hard lately ( I have been short google and netflix). Apple is the only one that remains strong right now, so I see november 1 being important indiactor to the slowdown we are seeing. If apple misses, we could see a selloff, if it beats I think more likely we will see a rally - but not back to the all time high. Right now I am not buying. As I said earlier, I was getting stopped out of all my picks ( UVV, etc). This forced me to mostly cash before this correction.

I also added to my tesla short when they popped on earnings. This is a good trading vehicle because it is so volatile.

 

[Spaz]

Well sucks to be me. I bought one of my favourite overpriced shares just before the market correction. So my profits pretty much back now to what I would have got in the bank.

I'm still happy with swing trading but now I realise I have to track the macro.

Have any of you guys got a few simple ways of ooking at the overall market movement so you can spot a bear market coming?

Others might hv better strategies but I'll share my experience at trading. I normally assign $100k for trading. Depends on which stock market I am trading.

Buy on a Monday morning, prices normally goes down.

Tues - Fri, sell to make profit, 1st 10-20 minutes of opening has the most volatility, if possible make ur killing then. Example 09:30 - 09:45, stop trading at 10:30.

Make some small profit within an hour, being greedy has burnt me once too many.

I'll cut losses within an hour and sell or average down (seldom) on a particular stock waiting for Friday to sell.

Short selling has proven addictive for me and I don't recommend it.

For more "long" term buys, I'll buy stocks in December to offload in January.