Hello Friend,

If this is your first visit to SoSuave, I would advise you to START HERE.

It will be the most efficient use of your time.

And you will learn everything you need to know to become a huge success with women.

Thank you for visiting and have a great day!

The Facts on Car Accident Deaths and COVID-19

Status
Not open for further replies.

billtx49

Moderator
Joined
May 23, 2013
Messages
3,820
Reaction score
3,174
Location
DFW
The US will overtake Italy shortly. Likely in less than a week.
I’ll give you advice that an older man once gave me that has almost always proved to be true:
Never bet on the come…
 

Warning!

Do not subscribe to The SoSuave Newsletter unless you are already a chick magnet!

The information in each issue is too powerful for most guys to handle. If you are an ordinary guy, it is not for you. It is meant for the elite few – not the unwashed masses.

image

If you think you can handle it...

If you already have girls calling you at all hours of the day and night, showing up at your door, throwing themselves at you everywhere you go...

Then sign up below.

But if you're just an average Joe, an ordinary guy, no one special – and wish to continue being so – then skip this. It's too much power for you.

zekko

Master Don Juan
Joined
Aug 6, 2009
Messages
13,222
Reaction score
5,136
Stores now are only allowing 15 people inside at a time, and at least one store interviews the customers, has them apply Hand Sanitizer, and if you answer the questions wrongly, they'll block you from entering the store.
Where is this at? And what are the questions about?
 

corrector

Master Don Juan
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
2,689
Reaction score
620
Where is this at? And what are the questions about?
This is two different stores. The first is a chain of the Real Canadian Superstore. I saw a line-up infront of the store and I had six people ahead of me and a huge line-up forming behind. People were waiting because the store would only allow 15 people in a whole large gigantic store at a time to honor the province's social distancing rules. One shopper had to leave for another shopper to enter.

The second store is a Nature's Emporium which is north of the city of Toronto. They have a guy with a mask on and gloves ask everyone if they have traveled over the past 14 days, or if they are exhibiting any signs of the flu including a fever, running nose or cough and they ask you to sanitize your hands with their hand sanitizer and offer you their plastic gloves before you can enter into their store. In fact, one customer had disclosed they had traveled over the past 14 days after she finished shopping, and then they closed the store down, got hospital grade cleaning equipment and sanitized the whole store from top to bottom and put all their employees on a 14 day self-isolation and had to replace everyone working there and re-open the store the next day. Of all the stores, I trust this one to be decent enough that I don't have to walk with a gas mask, gloves, and eye-goggles on. There is a 6 feet (2 meters) apart rule that has to be followed called social distance and they mark areas in the store with red masking tape of where you are supposed to stand in line.

People are taking this thing seriously here. I'm starting to take it very seriously and have to get used to wearing the gas mask, goggles. I've been wearing gloves for the past two weeks (when they ran out of hand sanitizer, the gloves were initially purchased to conserve the existing hand sanitizer I had, but now they are being worn more habitually).
 

bcude

Senior Don Juan
Joined
May 31, 2019
Messages
374
Reaction score
467
Age
38
Don’t tell me what to do!!! I’ll drop facts all day!

Italy has nearly that same size population as South Korea (60 mil to 51 mil), but has 10 times the death rate.

The US has a national death rate of 1.4 percent, which is on par with South Korea’s 1.3 percent.

Yes we have 3 times as many cases, but we have a population 6 times bigger.

I don’t know why people are comparing the US to Italy.
Yes, i love facts!
The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

You can see how they evolve over time to get an idea. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

Iran’s and Italy’s Deaths / Total Cases are both converging towards the 3%-4% range.

South Korea is the most interesting example, because these 2 numbers are completely disconnected: deaths / total cases is only 0.6%, but deaths / closed cases is a whopping 48%. Probably because a few unique things are happening there. First, they’re testing everybody (with so many open cases, the death rate seems low), and leaving the cases open for longer (so they close cases quickly when the patient is dead). Second, they have a lot of hospital beds (only second to Japan). There might also be other reasons we don’t know. What is relevant is that deaths/cases has hovered around 0.5% since the beginning, suggesting it will stay there, likely heavily influenced by the healthcare system and crisis management.

Age distribution in each country will also have an impact: Since mortality is much higher for older people, countries with an aging population like Italy will be harder hit on average than younger countries. There are also weather factors, especially humidity and temperature, but it’s still unclear how this will impact transmission and fatality rates.

This is what you can conclude:
- Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% to 0.9%.
- Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between 3%-5%.

US is compared to the worst countries because of the alarming exponential growth rate of cases, at the same point of time in the curve.





The state of New York now ranks in sixth place for most active cases in the world with 20,884 confirmed cases (yesterday), way ahead of France...



In line with the New York model




Considering you only have 50k ICU beds as of today and fewer than 100k ventilators in the whole country and statistically 5% of all infected end up in an ICU bed, it's an absolute necessity for everyone to take their responsibility and social distance themselves not to overwhelm the healthcare where you end up with 4% dead from the virus alone, excluding the 'collateral damage' from all the non-covid19 cases, meaning people who die from other ailments because they can't/won't get treatment.
For example when you have a heart attack but the ambulance takes 50 minutes to come instead of 8 (too many coronavirus cases) and once you arrive, there’s no ICU and no doctor available.
Unbridled coronavirus means healthcare system collapse, and that means mass death. Simple math.
They started using ice skating rinks as temporary morgues in Spain a couple of days ago. The senior home situation as samspade talked about is really sad. Corpses stacked everywhere with caretakers escaping from the homes. War-like scenarios.
 

Amante Silvestre

Moderator
Joined
May 8, 2007
Messages
3,204
Reaction score
4,184
The U.S. growth rate of infections is steeper than Italy's.
Yes, but the death rate is completely different thus far.

If you truly believe we will follow in Italy’s footsteps because of these graphs, then you are suggesting we are going to see a death rate near 10% as well.
 
Read the 22 Rules for Massive Success with Women. Everything you need to know to become a huge success with women. And it's free!

Amante Silvestre

Moderator
Joined
May 8, 2007
Messages
3,204
Reaction score
4,184
For example when you have a heart attack but the ambulance takes 50 minutes to come instead of 8 (too many coronavirus cases) and once you arrive, there’s no ICU and no doctor available.
There is a protocol for the sick to follow. They must contact their General doctor, who will then determine if they must seek medical attention at a facility or just isolate at home. They must also contact officials to provide information on where they have been recently, who they may have contact with, etc. This is done to help stave off further infections. If they went food shopping 5 days before, those officials are going to target the supermarket and take further steps necessary

There are no ambulances involved, so there is little reason to believe response times will change dramatically as a result of covid 19 for other medical emergencies.

As for hospital beds and supplies, sure, it’s a concern, and I’m not ignoring these facets. But Italy does not have the same production capabilities as the US. Italy has A practice of shutting a lot down mid day for several hours under completely normal circumstances, for example. It’s cultural. Americans work around the clock.

Here in the US manufacturing has gone into overdrive. They are building new medical facilities for this virus as we speak. The Navy has sent hospital ships to port. Cruise liners are converting their ships to hospitals, etc.

There are far too many factors in play to make any solid predictions by simply comparing the rate of spread between two countries.

Furthermore, here is a graph showing the increase in cases world wide:

DF194DA7-7C8D-4A48-807A-22C2DD01C9C0.jpeg

The rate of infection has trended up sharply. Can I use this graph to suggest the world is like Italy and we are going to see a mortality rate near 10% globally? I wouldn’t make predictions in such a way. A comparison to Italy is really no different.

I’m not downplaying this pandemic at all, and I understand the concerns and what it is the realm of possibility, but I’m not ready to buy a flat bed trailer and drive slowly down the street yelling “Bring out your dead!!”
 

Bible_Belt

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jul 27, 2005
Messages
15,874
Reaction score
4,000
Age
44
Location
midwestern cow field 40
I’m not ready to buy a flat bed trailer and drive slowly down the street yelling “Bring out your dead!!”
Corpse disposal will soon be a thriving business. Think about all those old people in Florida who live alone. The weather is warming, too. Gonna be some smelly trailer parks.
 

Bible_Belt

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jul 27, 2005
Messages
15,874
Reaction score
4,000
Age
44
Location
midwestern cow field 40
This is two different stores. The first is a chain of the Real Canadian Superstore. I saw a line-up infront of the store and I had six people ahead of me and a huge line-up forming behind. People were waiting because the store would only allow 15 people in a whole large gigantic store at a time to honor the province's social distancing rules. One shopper had to leave for another shopper to enter.

The second store is a Nature's Emporium which is north of the city of Toronto. They have a guy with a mask on and gloves ask everyone if they have traveled over the past 14 days, or if they are exhibiting any signs of the flu including a fever, running nose or cough and they ask you to sanitize your hands with their hand sanitizer and offer you their plastic gloves before you can enter into their store. In fact, one customer had disclosed they had traveled over the past 14 days after she finished shopping, and then they closed the store down, got hospital grade cleaning equipment and sanitized the whole store from top to bottom and put all their employees on a 14 day self-isolation and had to replace everyone working there and re-open the store the next day. Of all the stores, I trust this one to be decent enough that I don't have to walk with a gas mask, gloves, and eye-goggles on. There is a 6 feet (2 meters) apart rule that has to be followed called social distance and they mark areas in the store with red masking tape of where you are supposed to stand in line.

People are taking this thing seriously here. I'm starting to take it very seriously and have to get used to wearing the gas mask, goggles. I've been wearing gloves for the past two weeks (when they ran out of hand sanitizer, the gloves were initially purchased to conserve the existing hand sanitizer I had, but now they are being worn more habitually).
I hope you have some hydrogen peroxide. Dilute to about .5%. I carry a spray bottle in my truck. It works as hand sanitizer. I spray my shoes after leaving a store, and spray anything I touch in public.
 

taiyuu_otoko

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 10, 2008
Messages
4,535
Reaction score
2,750
Location
象外
The U.S. growth rate of measured infections is steeper than Italy's.
FIFY

Be careful of confusing variables.

US is crap when it comes to testing.

An increase in verified cases could be actual increases in cases.

Or an increase in verified cases could also be an increase in testing.

For example, back when I lived in Japan, they changed the laws, making it illegal to stalk celebrities for gossip stories.

So the news people needed something else scandalous to report, so they started reporting crime.

Same amount of crime, but much more press.

Everybody thought there was a sudden crime wave.

And given that U.S. media try to find the most horrible sounding news to report, any data through mainstream news sources doesn't lend itself to logical arguments.
 

corrector

Master Don Juan
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
2,689
Reaction score
620
I hope you have some hydrogen peroxide. Dilute to about .5%. I carry a spray bottle in my truck. It works as hand sanitizer. I spray my shoes after leaving a store, and spray anything I touch in public.
They all sold out by the time I got wind it had value. The first to sell out was rubbing alcohol but they had some of the hydrogen peroxide available. I didn't think of buying it because you needed the alcohol as the main ingredient for the home made hand sanitizer. Didn't know it was good by itself. You also have chlorine bleach you could mix with water and spray on stuff?
 
Read the 22 Rules for Massive Success with Women. Everything you need to know to become a huge success with women. And it's free!

taiyuu_otoko

Master Don Juan
Joined
Jan 10, 2008
Messages
4,535
Reaction score
2,750
Location
象外
Corpse disposal will soon be a thriving business.
This could be a win win.

A few times during the middle ages, people would dig up dead people from the graveyards to eat them.

If this does lead to a complete and total economic collapse, at least they'll be plenty of food around.

Although, that could be dangerous, eating a dead guy who died from Corona.

I'd like to see that asked at a press conference:

"Excuse me, is there any evidence that Covid-19 is transmissible via cannibalism?"
 

corrector

Master Don Juan
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
2,689
Reaction score
620
You have to wonder if this virus is really not airborne as they are saying. The rate of infection is simply too high to suggest it's only person to person transmission. It's like the virus can remain suspended in the air before dying off because it doesn't make sense how there is so many infections and deaths in countries that have taken stringent measures like Italy and Spain. I have my doubts as to whether social distancing really works. The CDC website itself says they are still studying how this is being transmitted so even they are not 100% sure.
 

Danger

Master Don Juan
Joined
Aug 6, 2007
Messages
11,273
Reaction score
2,147
Corpse disposal will soon be a thriving business. Think about all those old people in Florida who live alone. The weather is warming, too. Gonna be some smelly trailer parks.
How would corpse disposal be a problem? Just cremate them, forget about coffins. Cremation is the safest way anyways.
 

Amante Silvestre

Moderator
Joined
May 8, 2007
Messages
3,204
Reaction score
4,184
Corpse disposal will soon be a thriving business. Think about all those old people in Florida who live alone. The weather is warming, too. Gonna be some smelly trailer parks.
It’s too soon to suggest such things. We haven’t had enough time yet to see how current mitigation efforts have impacted the growth rate, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t slow like China and South Korea until proven otherwise

China has 3,200 deaths so far. South Korea 126.

I wouldn’t say that that’s a thriving business from a population exceeding 1 billion.
 
Read the 22 Rules for Massive Success with Women. Everything you need to know to become a huge success with women. And it's free!

corrector

Master Don Juan
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
2,689
Reaction score
620
It’s too soon to suggest such things. We haven’t had enough time yet to see how current mitigation efforts have impacted the growth rate, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t slow like China and South Korea until proven otherwise

China has 3,200 deaths so far. South Korea 126.

I wouldn’t say that that’s a thriving business from a population exceeding 1 billion.
China is a communist country so they have more control over their population. South Korea has a good universal health care system and had better planning to make sure people did not go crazy panic buying. America is too backwards compared to South Korea and too liberal compared to China. The results are already too bad. Look at New York govenor Como askibg Fema which 26,000 do they want to die?
 

Amante Silvestre

Moderator
Joined
May 8, 2007
Messages
3,204
Reaction score
4,184
China is a communist country so they have more control over their population. South Korea has a good universal health care system and had better planning to make sure people did not go crazy panic buying. America is too backwards compared to South Korea and too liberal compared to China. The results are already too bad. Look at New York govenor Como askibg Fema which 26,000 do they want to die?
Cuomo renames bridges after himself. He’s an attention wh0re.
 

zekko

Master Don Juan
Joined
Aug 6, 2009
Messages
13,222
Reaction score
5,136
Cuomo renames bridges after himself. He’s an attention wh0re.
The dude likes to hear himself talk, that's for sure. He seems to be doing a good job with the current situation though.
 

Logos

Senior Don Juan
Joined
Jul 4, 2015
Messages
213
Reaction score
72
Age
40
Location
Canada
In all this, I've never once heard anyone say, "It's the end of the world!"

People have always said this in less extreme events.

Why not this time? Or is it supposed to be funny, but this time it's no joke? Or is it because we all know it's actually "the end of the world as we know it" but don't want to reveal such information to a certain individual?

P.S. Do you feel fine?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top