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The Facts on Car Accident Deaths and COVID-19

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Amante Silvestre

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The amount of deaths would be less had the United States and Italy acted swiftly from the start. South Korea managed to contain the virus with swift action.
You might want to rethink that argument.

As of today, South Korea has 9037 cases with 120 deaths. That’s a death rate of 1.3%.

New York City, now considered the epicenter of the outbreak in this country, today has 23,000 cases with 180 deaths. That’s a death rate of 0.78%.

We’re doing better than South Korea, but you keep comparing us to Italy.
 

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billtx49

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You might want to rethink that argument.

As of today, South Korea has 9037 cases with 120 deaths. That’s a death rate of 1.3%.

New York City, now considered the epicenter of the outbreak in this country, today has 23,000 cases with 180 deaths. That’s a death rate of 0.78%.

We’re doing better than South Korea, but you keep comparing us to Italy.
Dam Amante, you just introduced real fact stats into an emotional fear narrative, those two don’t mix well…
 

thinker

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@EyeBRollin before you were claiming millions of deaths and now it is hundreds of thousands of deaths, would you please get your death and destruction porn focused, how else am I supposed to panic and start stroking my death and destruction erection? @Amante Silvestre how dare you, how dare you sir bring facts into this discussion, that is totally uncalled for.
 

Amante Silvestre

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how dare you, how dare you sir bring facts into this discussion, that is totally uncalled for.
Don’t tell me what to do!!! I’ll drop facts all day!

Italy has nearly that same size population as South Korea (60 mil to 51 mil), but has 10 times the death rate.

The US has a national death rate of 1.4 percent, which is on par with South Korea’s 1.3 percent.

Yes we have 3 times as many cases, but we have a population 6 times bigger.

I don’t know why people are comparing the US to Italy.
 

thinker

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Sir how can you be such a savage, have you no heart, think of the children. This is not the time for facts and logical thinking. We need to be running around screaming hysterically and begging the virus god for mercy!!!!!!
 
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EyeBRollin

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If this virus is anywhere near as deadly and contagious as you are saying, that is an inevitability anyway, no matter what we do.
That's a slippery slop fallacy.

You might want to rethink that argument.

As of today, South Korea has 9037 cases with 120 deaths. That’s a death rate of 1.3%.

New York City, now considered the epicenter of the outbreak in this country, today has 23,000 cases with 180 deaths. That’s a death rate of 0.78%.

We’re doing better than South Korea, but you keep comparing us to Italy.
Another disingenuous argument. New York City's death toll is skyrocketing exponentially as more cases trickle in. This virus takes about a month to recover from, so the data set for NYC is actually incomplete (Governor Cuomo estimated New York's peak is still 2-3 weeks out). South Korea has the worst behind it, and is currently has a negative trend. Nice try though.
 

samspade

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Don’t tell me what to do!!! I’ll drop facts all day!

Italy has nearly that same size population as South Korea (60 mil to 51 mil), but has 10 times the death rate.

The US has a national death rate of 1.4 percent, which is on par with South Korea’s 1.3 percent.

Yes we have 3 times as many cases, but we have a population 6 times bigger.

I don’t know why people are comparing the US to Italy.
That's interesting since South Korea stemmed the tide better than most countries due to their rapid testing. But they had a higher death rate.

I'd say the jury is out on the U.S. The first wave is crashing down as we speak. But like I said above, the U.S. is a socially-distanced country.

Italy is just a mess in general. Really the way every nation deals with this issue is a funhouse mirror image of that nation.
 

EyeBRollin

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@EyeBRollin before you were claiming millions of deaths
No actually that's another lie. The initial worst-case projections without social distancing were 2.2 million.


Dam Amante, you just introduced real fact stats into an emotional fear narrative, those two don’t mix well…
and now it is hundreds of thousands of deaths, would you please get your death and destruction porn focused, how else am I supposed to panic and start stroking my death and destruction erection? @Amante Silvestre how dare you, how dare you sir bring facts into this discussion, that is totally uncalled for.
Don’t tell me what to do!!! I’ll drop facts all day!
Dropping facts with no context, as always.

Italy has nearly that same size population as South Korea (60 mil to 51 mil), but has 10 times the death rate.

The US has a national death rate of 1.4 percent, which is on par with South Korea’s 1.3 percent.

Yes we have 3 times as many cases, but we have a population 6 times bigger.

I don’t know why people are comparing the US to Italy.
The U.S. growth rate of infections is steeper than Italy's.
 

billtx49

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Dropping facts with no context, as always.



The U.S. growth rate of infections is steeper than Italy's.
Yes, I would like to see those two date oriented virus growth rate charts side by side also. Try to provide them for us.
Or do you only want to drop statements without any facts to put them in context…
 

corrector

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If this virus is anywhere near as deadly and contagious as you are saying, that is an inevitability anyway, no matter what we do.
It's funny to think about everyone self isolating, but then you go to the grocery store and there are 8000 people jammed in there together. It's almost laughable.
I just found an old N94 gas mask and some goggles. I'm wearing this with a hooded sweater now with rubber gloves if I enter into a supermarket. When I get home, I wash my hands with soap and water and wipe down all the groceries with Lysol wipes and then put the plastic bags in the basement and bring them up a few days or later with the hopes any trace of the virus is gone from them. I wish I dressed like this weeks ago now, but I didn't know I had a mask hidden away somewhere I had purchased two years ago for another purpose.

Stores now are only allowing 15 people inside at a time, and at least one store interviews the customers, has them apply Hand Sanitizer, and if you answer the questions wrongly, they'll block you from entering the store. I'm worried about going to a store in a low-income/ghetto place dressed like that since I might be mugged for the mask as it's in high demand. Another rule, is only shop in a middle-class neighbourhood if you can so you don't feel like you stick out like a sore thumb when you have your gear on.
 
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billtx49

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The U.S. growth rate of infections is steeper than Italy's.
Thanks for the US and Italy graphs. In close to the same time frame the US has 14K fewer cases and 6.1 K fewer deaths, yet you tell me to be as scared as you. Step up
 

EyeBRollin

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Thanks for the US and Italy graphs. In close to the same time frame the US has 14K fewer cases and 6.1 K fewer deaths, yet you tell me to be as scared as you. Step up
If you look at the rate of cases and deaths in logarithmic scales, Italy's rate of growth is gradually flattening. The United States' rate of growth is continuing to grow exponentially. The US will overtake Italy shortly. Likely in less than a week.
 

billtx49

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The US will overtake Italy shortly. Likely in less than a week.
I’ll give you advice that an older man once gave me that has almost always proved to be true:
Never bet on the come…
 
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zekko

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Stores now are only allowing 15 people inside at a time, and at least one store interviews the customers, has them apply Hand Sanitizer, and if you answer the questions wrongly, they'll block you from entering the store.
Where is this at? And what are the questions about?
 

corrector

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Where is this at? And what are the questions about?
This is two different stores. The first is a chain of the Real Canadian Superstore. I saw a line-up infront of the store and I had six people ahead of me and a huge line-up forming behind. People were waiting because the store would only allow 15 people in a whole large gigantic store at a time to honor the province's social distancing rules. One shopper had to leave for another shopper to enter.

The second store is a Nature's Emporium which is north of the city of Toronto. They have a guy with a mask on and gloves ask everyone if they have traveled over the past 14 days, or if they are exhibiting any signs of the flu including a fever, running nose or cough and they ask you to sanitize your hands with their hand sanitizer and offer you their plastic gloves before you can enter into their store. In fact, one customer had disclosed they had traveled over the past 14 days after she finished shopping, and then they closed the store down, got hospital grade cleaning equipment and sanitized the whole store from top to bottom and put all their employees on a 14 day self-isolation and had to replace everyone working there and re-open the store the next day. Of all the stores, I trust this one to be decent enough that I don't have to walk with a gas mask, gloves, and eye-goggles on. There is a 6 feet (2 meters) apart rule that has to be followed called social distance and they mark areas in the store with red masking tape of where you are supposed to stand in line.

People are taking this thing seriously here. I'm starting to take it very seriously and have to get used to wearing the gas mask, goggles. I've been wearing gloves for the past two weeks (when they ran out of hand sanitizer, the gloves were initially purchased to conserve the existing hand sanitizer I had, but now they are being worn more habitually).
 

bcude

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Don’t tell me what to do!!! I’ll drop facts all day!

Italy has nearly that same size population as South Korea (60 mil to 51 mil), but has 10 times the death rate.

The US has a national death rate of 1.4 percent, which is on par with South Korea’s 1.3 percent.

Yes we have 3 times as many cases, but we have a population 6 times bigger.

I don’t know why people are comparing the US to Italy.
Yes, i love facts!
The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

You can see how they evolve over time to get an idea. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

Iran’s and Italy’s Deaths / Total Cases are both converging towards the 3%-4% range.

South Korea is the most interesting example, because these 2 numbers are completely disconnected: deaths / total cases is only 0.6%, but deaths / closed cases is a whopping 48%. Probably because a few unique things are happening there. First, they’re testing everybody (with so many open cases, the death rate seems low), and leaving the cases open for longer (so they close cases quickly when the patient is dead). Second, they have a lot of hospital beds (only second to Japan). There might also be other reasons we don’t know. What is relevant is that deaths/cases has hovered around 0.5% since the beginning, suggesting it will stay there, likely heavily influenced by the healthcare system and crisis management.

Age distribution in each country will also have an impact: Since mortality is much higher for older people, countries with an aging population like Italy will be harder hit on average than younger countries. There are also weather factors, especially humidity and temperature, but it’s still unclear how this will impact transmission and fatality rates.

This is what you can conclude:
- Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% to 0.9%.
- Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between 3%-5%.

US is compared to the worst countries because of the alarming exponential growth rate of cases, at the same point of time in the curve.





The state of New York now ranks in sixth place for most active cases in the world with 20,884 confirmed cases (yesterday), way ahead of France...



In line with the New York model




Considering you only have 50k ICU beds as of today and fewer than 100k ventilators in the whole country and statistically 5% of all infected end up in an ICU bed, it's an absolute necessity for everyone to take their responsibility and social distance themselves not to overwhelm the healthcare where you end up with 4% dead from the virus alone, excluding the 'collateral damage' from all the non-covid19 cases, meaning people who die from other ailments because they can't/won't get treatment.
For example when you have a heart attack but the ambulance takes 50 minutes to come instead of 8 (too many coronavirus cases) and once you arrive, there’s no ICU and no doctor available.
Unbridled coronavirus means healthcare system collapse, and that means mass death. Simple math.
They started using ice skating rinks as temporary morgues in Spain a couple of days ago. The senior home situation as samspade talked about is really sad. Corpses stacked everywhere with caretakers escaping from the homes. War-like scenarios.
 

Amante Silvestre

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The U.S. growth rate of infections is steeper than Italy's.
Yes, but the death rate is completely different thus far.

If you truly believe we will follow in Italy’s footsteps because of these graphs, then you are suggesting we are going to see a death rate near 10% as well.
 

Amante Silvestre

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For example when you have a heart attack but the ambulance takes 50 minutes to come instead of 8 (too many coronavirus cases) and once you arrive, there’s no ICU and no doctor available.
There is a protocol for the sick to follow. They must contact their General doctor, who will then determine if they must seek medical attention at a facility or just isolate at home. They must also contact officials to provide information on where they have been recently, who they may have contact with, etc. This is done to help stave off further infections. If they went food shopping 5 days before, those officials are going to target the supermarket and take further steps necessary

There are no ambulances involved, so there is little reason to believe response times will change dramatically as a result of covid 19 for other medical emergencies.

As for hospital beds and supplies, sure, it’s a concern, and I’m not ignoring these facets. But Italy does not have the same production capabilities as the US. Italy has A practice of shutting a lot down mid day for several hours under completely normal circumstances, for example. It’s cultural. Americans work around the clock.

Here in the US manufacturing has gone into overdrive. They are building new medical facilities for this virus as we speak. The Navy has sent hospital ships to port. Cruise liners are converting their ships to hospitals, etc.

There are far too many factors in play to make any solid predictions by simply comparing the rate of spread between two countries.

Furthermore, here is a graph showing the increase in cases world wide:

DF194DA7-7C8D-4A48-807A-22C2DD01C9C0.jpeg

The rate of infection has trended up sharply. Can I use this graph to suggest the world is like Italy and we are going to see a mortality rate near 10% globally? I wouldn’t make predictions in such a way. A comparison to Italy is really no different.

I’m not downplaying this pandemic at all, and I understand the concerns and what it is the realm of possibility, but I’m not ready to buy a flat bed trailer and drive slowly down the street yelling “Bring out your dead!!”
 
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