This guy puts out some really well thought out material on current market conditions, he just posted this. He has been an OG in the space for a long time
BTC Likely heading to 12K to complete the awkward "M" pattern by the end of the month and potentially bottoms around 10K, IMHO.
Will probably consolidate in that range for a bit and then start a slow ascent...once the stock market starts turning around after bottoming out I would expect a meteoric rise.
BTC Likely heading to 12K to complete the awkward "M" pattern by the end of the month and potentially bottoms around 10K, IMHO.
Will probably consolidate in that range for a bit and then start a slow ascent...once the stock market starts turning around after bottoming out I would expect a meteoric rise.
I welcome it. Not to be morbid but I thought the fed was going 100 points. Expected 75 after the inflation report.
What's your play? I'm planning to accumulate more and DCAing all day. I can't time the bottom. Tbh I never thought retail would get this sort of opportunity again.
What's most shocking to me is how we binance and cardano is holding. Holding decently in contrast to btc and eth in the short term.
I am OK with a crash. Ready to deploy more cash. I NEVER expected thus opportunity. I sm happy I didn't go full degen sooner month or so ago. I'm in a cash position ready to deploy cash. I want several positions. There are stocks I want too. Just biding my time and buying on certain dip price points.
when it was 69k I remember saying man.. I wish I could buy 10k Bitcoin and 300 dollar ethereum again. Here we go
what amazes me is all my friends.. when BC is at all time highs they start getting into it... and always say I should have bought like you in 2017.... but then when the prices drop they bail and call it a Ponzi scheme.
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It doesn't matter what individuals claim it is to be, really have no control over that and they have no direct influence. What it is, is a decentralized rules based monetary system with a set supply that no single person or entity has control over. It is the most secure and robust payment network ever created. Plenty of narratives will be constantly pushed out but Bitcoin will still operate as intended, nothing fundamentally changed in the protocol. Point is, it is all noise and doesn't matter.
when it was 69k I remember saying man.. I wish I could buy 10k Bitcoin and 300 dollar ethereum again. Here we go
what amazes me is all my friends.. when BC is at all time highs they start getting into it... and always say I should have bought like you in 2017.... but then when the prices drop they bail and call it a Ponzi scheme.
I welcome it. Not to be morbid but I thought the fed was going 100 points. Expected 75 after the inflation report.
What's your play? I'm planning to accumulate more and DCAing all day. I can't time the bottom. Tbh I never thought retail would get this sort of opportunity again.
What's most shocking to me is how we binance and cardano is holding. Holding decently in contrast to btc and eth in the short term.
I am OK with a crash. Ready to deploy more cash. I NEVER expected thus opportunity. I sm happy I didn't go full degen sooner month or so ago. I'm in a cash position ready to deploy cash. I want several positions. There are stocks I want too. Just biding my time and buying on certain dip price points.
I think alts holding up well is due to most of this is giant funds and platforms forced selling of btc/eth, 3 arrows, Luna, Celsius etc. A lot of funds were tied to these. They were all highly levered up. This last leg down isn't coming from retail.
I think alts holding up well is due to most of this is giant funds and platforms forced selling of btc/eth, 3 arrows, Luna, Celsius etc. A lot of funds were tied to these. They were all highly levered up. This last leg down isn't coming from retail.
I was shocked to see alts hold up staggeringly well on the drop under 18K and then massively rebound. Still are down hugely, most far more than BTC but I wouldn't be surprised to see more of them start to outpace BTC temporarily.
Bought a crapload of OGN(one of my favorites due to it's huge rallies it typically has after drops) at .186 and it basically stayed above .20 even during the big drop yesterday and then rebounded to almost .28 today. Sold and waiting to rebuy lower again over the next day or two.
I was shocked to see alts hold up staggeringly well on the drop under 18K and then massively rebound. Still are down hugely, most far more than BTC but I wouldn't be surprised to see more of them start to outpace BTC temporarily.
Bought a crapload of OGN(one of my favorites due to it's huge rallies it typically has after drops) at .186 and it basically stayed above .20 even during the big drop yesterday and then rebounded to almost .28 today. Sold and waiting to rebuy lower again over the next day or two.
Nice, alts are almost just a levered play on Bitcoin, you get exaggerated moves to the upside and downside. Only problem is over time they get replaced with new ones that catch the upside moves. Whats crazy to me is these funds being so levered up, every cycle new funds get blown up. Never learn. 3 arrows had massive loans out at almost every lender, then ghosted them when they asked for more collateral and got liquidated. Unreal lol
when it was 69k I remember saying man.. I wish I could buy 10k Bitcoin and 300 dollar ethereum again. Here we go
what amazes me is all my friends.. when BC is at all time highs they start getting into it... and always say I should have bought like you in 2017.... but then when the prices drop they bail and call it a Ponzi scheme.
The quote (prepare to butcher it) "when people are greedy be fearful and when people are fearful, be greedy." Pretty much do the opposite of your average retail investor. Got btc under 20k. Not mad. Can easily see it go 11k IF Celsius goes tits up and whatever next shoe drops. Not a prediction BTW. Would have welcomed 100 points by the fed for cheaper etherium.
Got in on btc at 6k usd. Biggest regret was not buying more. In London nobody talked crypto. 0. Nil. None of my mates entertained it. Even the playboy's and oGs in the game. The blue pill guys were all saying their wives won't let them or she will leave them if they buy. Pathetic.
Years ago, I thought it was a scam but a computer science friend actually taught me. Broke it down. I got in right after. Sucked because it easy so niche. Read mastering btc and eth. Read message boards. Lots of trial and error. Buddy has some bot now. Feeds it btc. Has passive streams of income from crypto. I suspect he's been mining since 2014.
Expecting btc 15k before summer even if only a flash crash. Not waiting for it. DCAing regularly.
I think alts holding up well is due to most of this is giant funds and platforms forced selling of btc/eth, 3 arrows, Luna, Celsius etc. A lot of funds were tied to these. They were all highly levered up. This last leg down isn't coming from retail.
The drops have been massive. I see more massive liquidation coming. Also when eth and wrapped btc get unlocked, profits will be taken. Not sure what your play is? I'm going to keep accumulating. I won't try to Time the bottom. Just more DCAing at certain price points. Was happy at btc under 30k. Having a field day under 20k.
I suggest learn how to self custody and get comfortable with that. It is one of the most important qualities it has. If you need help, happy to oblige.
I like commodities as well, imagine they are going to be very volatile this decade but overall in a massive bull trend.
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The drops have been massive. I see more massive liquidation coming. Also when eth and wrapped btc get unlocked, profits will be taken. Not sure what your play is? I'm going to keep accumulating. I won't try to Time the bottom. Just more DCAing at certain price points. Was happy at btc under 30k. Having a field day under 20k.
I think you got the right idea, don't think there is any rush right now. I have bought a little since the last drop but am being patient. Think there is a lot more pain coming overall for the economy
I suggest learn how to self custody and get comfortable with that. It is one of the most important qualities it has. If you need help, happy to oblige.
I like commodities as well, imagine they are going to be very volatile this decade but overall in a massive bull trend.
So many variables with commodities. I wouldn’t like to predict.
I concentrate on knowing when to buy. That’s the easy part. Knowing when to sell is the hard bit.
Commodities tend to super cycle as you can’t increase supply rapidly, but on the demand side, it’s hard to see how this sustains without someone like China building a society.
Tough one to call.
commodity super cycles tend to be 10 years up and 20 down. We are only 10 years into the “down”
So many variables with commodities. I wouldn’t like to predict.
I concentrate on knowing when to buy. That’s the easy part. Knowing when to sell is the hard bit.
Commodities tend to super cycle as you can’t increase supply rapidly, but on the demand side, it’s hard to see how this sustains without someone like China building a society.
Tough one to call.
commodity super cycles tend to be 10 years up and 20 down. We are only 10 years into the “down”
Yeah, a lot of demand destruction with raising rates and cutting back QE. I just like to sit in a trend I see happening over the next decade, not trade in and out. Maybe pull some off the table if things get really overheated.
Yeah, a lot of demand destruction with raising rates and cutting back QE. I just like to sit in a trend I see happening over the next decade, not trade in and out. Maybe pull some off the table if things get really overheated.
On balance and paper this is the right move. My fear is that this is being driven from energy prices, not CPI. Central banks can’t control the cost of oil.
oil falling would be a really good thing.
Core inflation is rising off the back of it though.
high inflation does have some benefits. My mortgage loan is decreasing while my house appreciates, although short term housing market cooling is inevitable.
On balance and paper this is the right move. My fear is that this is being driven from energy prices, not CPI. Central banks can’t control the cost of oil.
oil falling would be a really good thing.
Core inflation is rising off the back of it though.
high inflation does have some benefits. My mortgage loan is decreasing while my house appreciates, although short term housing market cooling is inevitable.
Yeah, a lot of variables pulling in different directions. Will be volatile both ways, at some point they will go back to cutting rates and QE. They just want to look like they are trying to tame inflation, reality is they would have to pull a Volker and get rates over the inflation rate to really get after it. That is literally impossible with all the debt out there.
Cheap debt like a mortgage in a high inflation environment is probably the best inflation hedge for the general public. As long you can still service the payments, like you said it gets cheaper.
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