Charting Bitcoin

ChristopherColumbus

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You sound like the brokers I used to work with who would try to justify throwing someone’s nest egg down the toilet. Of course there’s no certainty. There’s no certainty that my train will arrive on time tomorrow, however through experience I’ve learnt that it is on time most of the time and therefore a good investment in buying a ticket.

A good investor makes ‘calculated’ risks. What’s your risk? Do you or any of your subscribers know what your expected outcome is over n trades/positions? Do they or you know that overtime they are likely going to make more money than they lose?
This is very basic stuff.

It should be common knowledge that because there is no certainty you hedge. That is what investors do, they take a calculated risk on a position while hedging themselves. In other words, not betting the farm.

Of course, the investor first of all needs to understand the macro.... because without it he'll be a slave to 'money illusion', where all he sees is the linear numbers/ prices. He''l be up a creek without a paddle in this situation -

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Looking for appreciation and return, the investor naturally gravitates to the long term chart on the logarithmic scale... unless of course he prefers to buy on fundamentals.

See how much more comparative data you have, showing the phases of exponential appreciations with their corrections.... not to mention the long term trend.

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Is it my job to educate you? :D
 

switch7

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This is very basic stuff.

It should be common knowledge that because there is no certainty you hedge. That is what investors do, they take a calculated risk on a position while hedging themselves. In other words, not betting the farm.

Of course, the investor first of all needs to understand the macro.... because without it he'll be a slave to 'money illusion', where all he sees is the linear numbers/ prices. He''l be up a creek without a paddle in this situation -

View attachment 2531
Looking for appreciation and return, the investor naturally gravitates to the long term chart on the logarithmic scale... unless of course he prefers to buy on fundamentals.

See how much more comparative data you have, showing the phases of exponential appreciations with their corrections.... not to mention the long term trend.

View attachment 2532



Is it my job to educate you? :D
Hehe throw some ta down if you are game and I’ll do the same - let’s see if my over 10,000 hours trading 5 min charts matches your experience watching an almost static chart. I can do long term, it’s all fractal.
 

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jaygreenb

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All alt positions up around 50%. Expecting a bit of consolidation though....
I heard an interesting theory the other day on how this possibly could play out. The run in 2017 was actually like the smaller run on your chart in 2013 elongated and we make a much faster move up like it did in 2013 and 14. Obviously nobody knows, but got the wheels turning since I was not expecting and major moves up for a while. What are your thoughts on that? If you don't mind me asking what type of percentage of bitcoin do you keep in your portfolio? I'm around 60-70%
 

jaygreenb

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I heard an interesting theory the other day on how this possibly could play out. The run in 2017 was actually like the smaller run on your chart in 2013 elongated and we make a much faster move up like it did in 2013 and 14. Obviously nobody knows, but got the wheels turning since I was not expecting and major moves up for a while. What are your thoughts on that? If you don't mind me asking what type of percentage of bitcoin do you keep in your portfolio? I'm around 60-70%
So that could potentially mean a much faster run up, then a very long bear market after. I plan on trying to sell off at least 80% of my holdings over this next pull run
 

ChristopherColumbus

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I heard an interesting theory the other day on how this possibly could play out. The run in 2017 was actually like the smaller run on your chart in 2013 elongated and we make a much faster move up like it did in 2013 and 14. Obviously nobody knows, but got the wheels turning since I was not expecting and major moves up for a while. What are your thoughts on that? If you don't mind me asking what type of percentage of bitcoin do you keep in your portfolio? I'm around 60-70%
I'm way overweight in BTC... but am getting more interested in position trading the better alts. I think 75% BTC and $25 in alts would be a reasonable mix. Mind you, I'm looking to sell most of it...all alts and most BTC on the next spike... by my reckoning in the year of 2022 based on cycle counts... log growth charts etc..
 

ChristopherColumbus

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6k and we go back down to lows is my call.

ps @ChristopherColumbus still waiting for a reply on my proposition. Me vs you, 50 trades. Whaddya say?
Too busy these days for this sort of thing. More or less am running a subscription site where i am posting charts/ trades near full time on the better alts...

C'mon guys, get with the program. At least buy a bit of BTC. The conversation here is...so last year. lol
 
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jaygreenb

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I'm way overweight in BTC... but am getting more interested in position trading the better alts. I think 75% BTC and $25 in alts would be a reasonable mix. Mind you, I'm looking to sell most of it...all alts and most BTC on the next spike... by my reckoning in the year of 2022 based on cycle counts... log growth charts etc..
I was thinking the same, my goal is to sell off 80%, keep the other 20% just in case some crazy currency collapse happens. Put most of it in some non correlated asset like real estate, then buy some back on the next correction.
 

ChristopherColumbus

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I was thinking the same, my goal is to sell off 80%, keep the other 20% just in case some crazy currency collapse happens. Put most of it in some non correlated asset like real estate, then buy some back on the next correction.
Yep, here's my dastardly plan for world domination [of my little corner of it anyway] -

On the spike -

Sell all alts, and 2/3s of BTC.
Buy productive land/ real estate/ bit of gold/ native currency [land no lambo]
Funds raised from the 1/3 BTC sold back into BTC on the correction.
 

sangheilios

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@jaygreenb

I've been going through your posts on here and as a heavy crypto currency investor I have some personal insight for you.

This market is extremely volatile across the board for crypto currencies, with BTC being the more "stable" of them. You need to decide for yourself what type of risk to reward ratio you are willing to work with.

The alt coins started bleeding heavily in the earlier fall, stabilized for a bit and then again took a massive nose dive in the latter part of November. Bitcoin cash went below $80 and litecoin was sitting at around $20, which was nowhere near what they were at just a few months prior. Bitcoin itself was sitting pretty strong at 6k but then got as low as 3.2k, again an otherwise major drop but nothing compared to that of the alt coins. You can now see where we are sitting at with the alt coins and BTC itself.

The major altcoins provide the greatest opportunity for profits but also pose the greatest risk for seeing a major decline in your portfolio. If that is something you don't think you could handle without selling out of fear then you'd be far better off with sticking to a BTC dominant crypto portfolio. However, I do personally feel that the major altcoins you see on coinbase are overall pretty solid investment decisions, though as I said they do see much more major fluctuations compared to BTC.

I would diversify, but definitely keep a pretty solid amount of your investments into BTC itself, as this is THE crypto.

The biggest mistake I made last year was making major buys far too often instead of just making more moderate purchases spread out over a longer period of time, what we'd know as cost averaging. What I started doing in the fall was just putting a little bit of money in every single day, which at first doesn't seem like much but it quickly adds up. In December through March I was able to increase my holdings by a substantial amount due to the very low prices we saw. I had increased my bitcoin cash holdings by well over 50% and more than doubled my position in BTC itself whilst also putting more into litecoin and ethereum, these took a back seat as I already owned a substantial number of them.

I've learned what to do in a down trend but when we hit a major bull run I'm not really sure what my strategy will be. Always leave some skin in the game is the way I see it, though how much I'll leave in I can't say.

Though we are seeing some elevated prices right now compared to where we were at the last few months, in the bigger picture the prices we are currently at are still very solid places to accumulate overall. I wouldn't make any major trades and I wouldn't hold out on buying thinking it's going to go back down.

Always look at the big picture, don't fear missing out and make rational decisions.

Good luck
 
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jaygreenb

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@jaygreenb

I've been going through your posts on here and as a heavy crypto currency investor I have some personal insight for you.

This market is extremely volatile across the board for crypto currencies, with BTC being the more "stable" of them. You need to decide for yourself what type of risk to reward ratio you are willing to work with.

The alt coins started bleeding heavily in the earlier fall, stabilized for a bit and then again took a massive nose dive in the latter part of November. Bitcoin cash went below $80 and litecoin was sitting at around $20, which was nowhere near what they were at just a few months prior. Bitcoin itself was sitting pretty strong at 6k but then got as low as 3.2k, again an otherwise major drop but nothing compared to that of the alt coins. You can now see where we are sitting at with the alt coins and BTC itself.

The major altcoins provide the greatest opportunity for profits but also pose the greatest risk for seeing a major decline in your portfolio. If that is something you don't think you could handle without selling out of fear then you'd be far better off with sticking to a BTC dominant crypto portfolio. However, I do personally feel that the major altcoins you see on coinbase are overall pretty solid investment decisions, though as I said they do see much more major fluctuations compared to BTC.

I would diversify, but definitely keep a pretty solid amount of your investments into BTC itself, as this is THE crypto.

The biggest mistake I made last year was making major buys far too often instead of just making more moderate purchases spread out over a longer period of time, what we'd know as cost averaging. What I started doing in the fall was just putting a little bit of money in every single day, which at first doesn't seem like much but it quickly adds up. In December through March I was able to increase my holdings by a substantial amount due to the very low prices we saw. I had increased my bitcoin cash holdings by well over 50% and more than doubled my position in BTC itself whilst also putting more into litecoin and ethereum, these took a back seat as I already owned a substantial number of them.

I've learned what to do in a down trend but when we hit a major bull run I'm not really sure what my strategy will be. Always leave some skin in the game is the way I see it, though how much I'll leave in I can't say.

Though we are seeing some elevated prices right now compared to where we were at the last few months, in the bigger picture the prices we are currently at are still very solid places to accumulate overall. I wouldn't make any major trades and I wouldn't hold out on buying thinking it's going to go back down.

Always look at the big picture, don't fear missing out and make rational decisions.

Good luck
Thanks for the insight, I got a bulk of my money in over the summer in 2017, I'm down around 25% from my overall investment as of today. I put another chunk in the past few months. I certainly do not mind risk and can afford it if everything went to zero, although 2018 was painful to watch. I literally took zero profits but learned some valuable lessons. I could share the numbers in a private message if interested, its sizable. This is my home run shot, retire early, move into the investor class from owner/operator at an earlier age. I own a company that does well and some commercial real estate. Currently, btc and gbtc make up 65% of my portfolio. My alts are as in LTC, WTC, ETH, NEO, XRP, OMG, ADA, EOS, ELA, XLM, BNB, TRAC, HPB, VEN, POLY, ONT, LISK, KMD, ARK, ICX, LEND, PWR, percentages in that order. My plan with the alts is on any major runs convert back to btc, maybe buy some back when they retrace. Also play the 60 day btc cycles once a pattern has started to be established. The goal is to constantly build a larger btc position with alts. I'm flexible to change, so we will see how things start to shake out. At some point I am going to make major conversions to cash and put them in unrelated assets, most likely real estate but am open to any undervalued asset class that may be available at the time, or just sit in cash and be patient.
 
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