Charting Bitcoin

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
2,012
Reaction score
167
Location
New England
People don't understand that crypto puts power back into your hands. They are too programmed to be reliant on government and corporations doing everything for them while they are secretly being sold out in the shadows. Shedding light for the new comers into the space about the benefits of crypto or even converting some of the detractors (like the ones in this thread) help the freedom movement greatly. I was a detractor at one point as well but once we convince these detractors and get them on board as champions, the space will grow that much faster.
I understood crypto well enough. I read the UMLs and studied the source code plenty. I also understand bubbles too and that human behavoir doesn't change. And now after the dust has settled, the bubble was exposed for what it was.

Explain to me why the crypto economy is going to implode when institutional money isn't even in yet.
Because it was a bubble and people invested on emotions and not using a rational process. This was a classic mania in every sense of the word, and they always end with an implosion. The data has now confirmed it. Do you still have this stance on the space?

I know a guy at work who was all in on these things at the beginning of the year. I am not sure he has immediate family, but I know he had a meaningful amount in the space. To think that he is down these types of %s across the board is not a good thought. But part of it is because of biased, subjective opinions on the space by people with no experience, and no willingness to be objective at all. Everyone has to be responsible for their own investments but I also believe people should be responsible for the "advice" they dispense on public forums. Can we safely say people here were acting responsibly?
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
Listening to this advice would have saved bitcoin holders from losing 50% since Jan 17.

That was a quick bubble! I was curious how this would respond in a market correction - seems to be doing just as awful if not worse. Hopefully people learned their lessons with this.
Here is the long term log growth curve for BTC. Notice that it has fully retraced on the fib equal to previous cycles.
log.png

And the reverse parabola... which I first charted in March. the correction has so far followed this course. I think we're seeing a double bottom here on the back of the Bcash wars fiasco.
fiasco.png
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
He wasn't wrong. How of these coins/alts have been absolutely pummeled losing over 80% of their peak values. This is how most manias play out. And as he said, people marry their positions and buy higher and higher. Notice how dead the discussion is. I suspect a lot of money was lost. Perhaps the hype can return, but the battle scars are meaningful for long term holders who kept accumulating and cost averaging higher. This will create overhead resistance from now on, and we have already seen it anytime BTC or any coin rallys.

human nature really doesn't change, does it?
it's been a whole year of correction, and I think BTC is bottoming here. Averaging in for the long term has to have a great risk/ reward ratio given the past history. Best to buy when sentiment is low with the price.
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
Right, what happened after that post was a lot of attacks on you and your credibility - ad-hominem obviously. What gets me is accountability. The people who got it so wrong don't attone to it, but rather just vanish or don't address shortcomings in their prior analysis. The price action was fairly obvious after it failed to eclipse 15k, and continued down. Again the problem is people would still hawk buying and I am sure it has cost some people a lot of money. I would be very shocked anyone made any money on some of these instruments that fell 80+ percent in less than a year.
I position traded BTC on the way down [selling at 10K and rebuying in the low 6K range once I became convinced of the 'reverse parabola']. Also recently sold a small property and put proceeds into both bullion and BTC [bullion as a hedge].
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
I understood crypto well enough. I read the UMLs and studied the source code plenty. I also understand bubbles too and that human behavoir doesn't change. And now after the dust has settled, the bubble was exposed for what it was.
look at the previous long term charts I posted. BTC/ crypto is not like traditional markets... it is hyper-volatile to both sides [more than silver]. Best to look at the cycles [or bubbles if that's what you want to call them] and see that they retrace only 27% in real terms. The moves up are so massive, that the corrections are also.
 

How This "Nice Guy" Steals Women from Jerks

Did you know a woman can be totally UN-ATTRACTED to you...

And she'll still sleep with you?

If you've ever seen a girl go home with some asshole she didn't even LIKE, you know this is true.

But how is this possible?

Because deep inside her brain, sexual desire has nothing to do with what you LOOK like...

And everything to do with how you make her FEEL.

Matt Cook knows this all too well.

Matt is a nice guy... but he steals women from JERKS all the time.

In this free video training below, he'll show you how he does it:

How to Control Her Emotions and Make Her Chase You

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
And everyone thought i was just being a d!ck, LOL. I don't have any personal grudge against bitcoin or the people who own it, but I can read a chart and see a bubble. I always traded off charts alone and never cared about anything other than price action. The idea is that we have a market so efficient, anything a mere mortal like me is going to learn from research has already been factored into the price, because everyone else already knows. Perhaps more importantly, it saves you from the "but it's a good company" excuse to marry a bad position. There are lots of great companies with securities that will make you lose your ass. BTC may end up taking over the world someday, but that does not change the fundamentals of group psychology and bubble mania which are shown by the chart.
All good points. But with something that moves exponentially like BTC, I think you really need to focus on the logarithmic scale. You can see the rate of acceleration/ appreciation is decreasing with the curve, and also the volatility in real terms. Still a good time to buy.

log.png
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
It's been a while! So to make sense of this correction in Bitcoin, we need to zoom out and look at the multi-year trend - 300% compounding year on year. In 2017, BTC went up over 2000%. It has so far corrected 60%.... and I predict perhaps in total 75% [to 5K]. This will still be 400% appreciation since January 2017. Here is the chart to watch:
after getting caught up in the initial hype of the parabolic spike, I became interested in charting the correction. This prediction has [so far] proven to be remarkably close to the mark.
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
Day trading perhaps. But this log chart has helped immensely with swing trading in the medium term, and predicting the price. I've predicted the price accurately [on Twitter] since February. The reason why the log chart works here is that the short/ medium term [trend down] is correcting to the medium/ long term [trend up]. I would not be able to get these data points without the log scale. Notice also the symmetry of the wave formations. With this is mind, it's obvious that the linear chart is the one that's distorted.

From July. The point of re-posting these is to show that in general terms my prediction for this correction has been pretty good so far... and so it's quite plausible that my current prediction for BTC will also be reasonably good.

Looking at it from a risk/reward ratio perspective, you'd have to say that it would be perfectly rational to buy a bit of bitcoin here.
 

Music_czar

Senior Don Juan
Joined
Aug 27, 2018
Messages
267
Reaction score
285
From July. The point of re-posting these is to show that in general terms my prediction for this correction has been pretty good so far... and so it's quite plausible that my current prediction for BTC will also be reasonably good.

Looking at it from a risk/reward ratio perspective, you'd have to say that it would be perfectly rational to buy a bit of bitcoin here.
Chris, how much cash have you made out of bitcoin since you started buying it up?
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
2,012
Reaction score
167
Location
New England
look at the previous long term charts I posted. BTC/ crypto is not like traditional markets... it is hyper-volatile to both sides [more than silver]. Best to look at the cycles [or bubbles if that's what you want to call them] and see that they retrace only 27% in real terms. The moves up are so massive, that the corrections are also.
This is the point where I disagree - bitcoin is like any other market as there are buying and selling agents with individual goals and emotions involved. Sure, bitcoin doesn't have quarterly earnings, dividends ( if applicable) and the like but it is governed by the same laws of supply and demand that effect the price of anything. Looking at a long term chart of Enron could have lead people to the same conclusion, but regimes change which is why shorter time frames are needed when looking at charts. I personally look at daily and weekly charts and for btc they have been clearly bearish.

Right now, there are far too many trapped buyers in btc at a loss, no matter what people say about their "gains". Once people started maxing out credit cards and buying on credit, it set up btc price much like the excessive call loans of the late 20s. It took until the the mid 40s to get back to where it was. Granted this was one big deleveraging, and won't be the case with bitcoin I don't think.
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
2,012
Reaction score
167
Location
New England
it's been a whole year of correction, and I think BTC is bottoming here. Averaging in for the long term has to have a great risk/ reward ratio given the past history. Best to buy when sentiment is low with the price.
I learned the hard way not to try to pick bottoms and average in losing trades. Once I started doing this, I have saved myself a TON of lost money and opportunity cost as a result. Its my preference, but now I focus on losses and let winners run as I can control the former much easier. The problem with bottoms is that even though something dropped 80% doesn't mean it can't immediatly drop another 80%. Looking at the btc chart, I was beginning to think it was forming a long-ish base, but the recent drop signals to me that its not done yet. Stocks in a downtrend have a habit of gapping down - serial gappers some call them. I have had recent success shorting these types of stocks.

The problem is before the initial regime change, you had people sitting on paper profits. They obviously get more excited as the price goes up, and their impression of value up along with it. Once buyers are trapped at those high prices, they get out and add resistance to any rally...we have seen this over and over. For me, If a stock is down major, I want it to have been down for 1-2 years, as those levels of resistance start to go away. The strongest holders at that point won't sell. bitcoin still is in recent memory, and there is more than enough supply to flood the markets on rallies ,as we have seen.

for all I know you could be right in buying when sentiment is crap. As for me, it won't get better. Inexperienced people bet too big...too many weak hands still in the game. Plus my opinion of btc is that it will not survive the digital currency wars. Govnt will likely develop their own, and outlaw this. They always want control and it would be a mistake to underestimate them.
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
Chris, how much cash have you made out of bitcoin since you started buying it up?
I'm an investor not a day-trader. I'm looking to establish a core position at these levels in order to ride the next bull run up. Sell half on the spike.
 

synergy1

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
2,012
Reaction score
167
Location
New England
Confucious say, man who pick bottoms get stinky finger.

Key level breached. 5.000 may turn from support to resistance.

https://www.ccn.com/newsflash-bitcoin-price-drops-to-4950-as-bears-pummel-the-market/amp/

Bitcoin Price Drops to $4,950 as Bears Pummel the Market
Ive learned not to pick bottoms anymore after sharp declines. Since today, the price is already down 8%. I would be inclined to agree that higher levels will now act as resistance at this point, and would not buy anything with these type of gapping drops.
 
Read the 22 Rules for Massive Success with Women. Everything you need to know to become a huge success with women. And it's free!

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
Notice how the capitulation spike comes when price retraces to the trendline. Brief spike down, sideways, then up again. Buy the dip.

Notice.png
 

ChristopherColumbus

Master Don Juan
Joined
Sep 8, 2016
Messages
2,625
Reaction score
1,237
Age
51
Location
korea
Chris do you no the odds/edge of trend continuation at a pullback to a given fibonacci retracement to new high on these longer term charts?
The previous cycles is all we have to go by with Bitcoin. I find it striking that the fib retracement [in real terms] has been the same. Thanks to the perfect storm of FUD [SEC clamping down on ICOs, Bitcoin miners closing down, the hash wars, and Bakkt postponement] we even got the capitulation candle.
 
Top