ntssv said:
Hey backbreaker,
I read you like to bet on horses... Who do you think?
I guess you could say that
with that said, I am on my way to the airport here in about an hour and a half to catch a flight there to watch it live tomorrow (thank god my dad works for an airline company)
anyway to answer your question, I can tell you there is no way I would put any money on Lawyer Ron, Sinnester Minnister or Brother Derek, the race does not suit well at all for them. Lawyer ron and Brother Derek both have to come from the extra gate, making their trips longer, and they are both front runners.
Brother Derek in all actuality really hasn't done **** to impress me. He beat a very very weak (At least in my opinion) field at the Santa Anita Derby, which included Bob and John, who turned around and beat an even weaker field of horses at the Wood last month.
Throw Barbero in that same mix, however he will be in the mix
If one of thoose three won, Laywer Ron wouldn't shock me, because he has the talent, I just don't think the race fits him, plus he is still very green IMHO and at times can't be controled
I like Steppinwolfer.. he has finished 2nd behind Laywer Ron the last two, but in both races, if he would have had an extra 8th of a mile, well, at least in the last race for sure, laywer ron was dead meat, and he gets it this race. Strong, strong late kick, and the Arkansas Derby is the best prep race for the derby.
I like A.P Warrior.. well at least I like the breeding, I don't care too much for Bob Baffert, at leat the last 2 or so years. Has killed some promising careers with his anxiousness to make every half decent horse a derby horse. He has a REAL late kick, but hasn't showed all of too much.
My REAL sleeper is Showing Up. I am in love with this horse. He has an on/off button like I have never seen, at least since Affirmed (I know too much about horse racing) This pick isn't based on what he has done, it's what I know he can do, and ovbiousy the connections think the same, otherwise he wouldn't be here. Durning the back stretch, he literarly makes his opponents look like they are not moving. I saw him go from like 2 off the lead on the BS turn, and by the time they hit the stretch, he was a good 4-5 lenghts ahead, and won by 11 or so, and pretty much jogged the first part of the race, being boxed in.
He is the type of horse that can handle sitting a couple of lengths off the pace, and won't be thrown off if a hole isn't automatically there, and dip to the outside, and make a legit run at the lead.